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The threshold model has been widely adopted as a classic model for studying contagion processes on social networks. We consider asymmetric individual interactions in social networks and introduce a persuasion mechanism into the threshold model. Specifically, we study a combination of adoption and persuasion in cascading processes on complex networks. It is found that with the introduction of the persuasion mechanism, the system may become more vulnerable to global cascades, and the effects of persuasion tend to be more significant in heterogeneous networks than those in homogeneous networks: a comparison between heterogeneous and homogeneous networks shows that under weak persuasion, heterogeneous networks tend to be more robust against random shocks than homogeneous networks; whereas under strong persuasion, homogeneous networks are more stable. Finally, we study the effects of adoption and persuasion threshold heterogeneity on systemic stability. Though both heterogeneities give rise to global cascades, the adoption heterogeneity has an overwhelmingly stronger impact than the persuasion heterogeneity when the network connectivity is sufficiently dense.
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Forecasting the evolution of contagion dynamics is still an open problem to which mechanistic models only offer a partial answer. To remain mathematically or computationally tractable, these models must rely on simplifying assumptions, thereby limiting the quantitative accuracy of their predictions and the complexity of the dynamics they can model. Here, we propose a complementary approach based on deep learning where the effective local mechanisms governing a dynamic on a network are learned from time series data. Our graph neural network architecture makes very few assumptions about the dynamics, and we demonstrate its accuracy using different contagion dynamics of increasing complexity. By allowing simulations on arbitrary network structures, our approach makes it possible to explore the properties of the learned dynamics beyond the training data. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our approach using real data of the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain. Our results demonstrate how deep learning offers a new and complementary perspective to build effective models of contagion dynamics on networks.
Routing information through networks is a universal phenomenon in both natural and manmade complex systems. When each node has full knowledge of the global network connectivity, finding short communication paths is merely a matter of distributed computation. However, in many real networks nodes communicate efficiently even without such global intelligence. Here we show that the peculiar structural characteristics of many complex networks support efficient communication without global knowledge. We also describe a general mechanism that explains this connection between network structure and function. This mechanism relies on the presence of a metric space hidden behind an observable network. Our findings suggest that real networks in nature have underlying metric spaces that remain undiscovered. Their discovery would have practical applications ranging from routing in the Internet and searching social networks, to studying information flows in neural, gene regulatory networks, or signaling pathways.
A wide class of binary-state dynamics on networks---including, for example, the voter model, the Bass diffusion model, and threshold models---can be described in terms of transition rates (spin-flip probabilities) that depend on the number of nearest neighbors in each of the two possible states. High-accuracy approximations for the emergent dynamics of such models on uncorrelated, infinite networks are given by recently-developed compartmental models or approximate master equations (AME). Pair approximations (PA) and mean-field theories can be systematically derived from the AME. We show that PA and AME solutions can coincide under certain circumstances, and numerical simulations confirm that PA is highly accurate in these cases. For monotone dynamics (where transitions out of one nodal state are impossible, e.g., SI disease-spread or Bass diffusion), PA and AME give identical results for the fraction of nodes in the infected (active) state for all time, provided the rate of infection depends linearly on the number of infected neighbors. In the more general non-monotone case, we derive a condition---that proves equivalent to a detailed balance condition on the dynamics---for PA and AME solutions to coincide in the limit $t to infty$. This permits bifurcation analysis, yielding explicit expressions for the critical (ferromagnetic/paramagnetic transition) point of such dynamics, closely analogous to the critical temperature of the Ising spin model. Finally, the AME for threshold models of propagation is shown to reduce to just two differential equations, and to give excellent agreement with numerical simulations. As part of this work, Octave/Matlab code for implementing and solving the differential equation systems is made available for download.
Controlling complex networks is of paramount importance in science and engineering. Despite the recent development of structural-controllability theory, we continue to lack a framework to control undirected complex networks, especially given link weights. Here we introduce an exact-controllability paradigm based on the maximum multiplicity to identify the minimum set of driver nodes required to achieve full control of networks with arbitrary structures and link-weight distributions. The framework reproduces the structural controllability of directed networks characterized by structural matrices. We explore the controllability of a large number of real and model networks, finding that dense networks with identical weights are difficult to be controlled. An efficient and accurate tool is offered to assess the controllability of large sparse and dense networks. The exact-controllability framework enables a comprehensive understanding of the impact of network properties on controllability, a fundamental problem towards our ultimate control of complex systems.
Nature, technology and society are full of complexity arising from the intricate web of the interactions among the units of the related systems (e.g., proteins, computers, people). Consequently, one of the most successful recent approaches to capturing the fundamental features of the structure and dynamics of complex systems has been the investigation of the networks associated with the above units (nodes) together with their relations (edges). Most complex systems have an inherently hierarchical organization and, correspondingly, the networks behind them also exhibit hierarchical features. Indeed, several papers have been devoted to describing this essential aspect of networks, however, without resulting in a widely accepted, converging concept concerning the quantitative characterization of the level of their hierarchy. Here we develop an approach and propose a quantity (measure) which is simple enough to be widely applicable, reveals a number of universal features of the organization of real-world networks and, as we demonstrate, is capable of capturing the essential features of the structure and the degree of hierarchy in a complex network. The measure we introduce is based on a generalization of the m-reach centrality, which we first extend to directed/partially directed graphs. Then, we define the global reaching centrality (GRC), which is the difference between the maximum and the average value of the generalized reach centralities over the network. We investigate the behavior of the GRC considering both a synthetic model with an adjustable level of hierarchy and real networks. Results for real networks show that our hierarchy measure is related to the controllability of the given system. We also propose a visualization procedure for large complex networks that can be used to obtain an overall qualitative picture about the nature of their hierarchical structure.
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