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Register a new userThe impact of non-Gaussianity on the Epoch of Reionization parameter forecast using 21-cm power spectrum measurements
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Abinash Kumar Shaw
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Measurements of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal hold the potential to constrain models of reionization. In this paper we consider a reionization model with three astrophysical parameters namely (1) the minimum halo mass which can host ionizing sources, $M_{rm min}$, (2) the number of ionizing photons escaping into the IGM per baryon within the halo, $N_{rm ion}$ and (3) the mean free path of the ionizing photons within the IGM, $R_{rm mfp}$. We predict the accuracy with which these parameters can be measured from future observations of the 21-cm power spectrum (PS) using the upcoming SKA-Low. Unlike several earlier works, we account for the non-Gaussianity of the inherent EoR 21-cm signal. Considering cosmic variance only and assuming that foregrounds are completely removed, we find that non-Gaussianity increases the volume of the $1 sigma$ error ellipsoid of the parameters by a factor of $133$ relative to the Gaussian predictions, the orientation is also different. The ratio of the volume of error ellipsoids is $1.65$ and $2.67$ for observation times of $1024$ and $10000$ hours respectively, when all the $mathbf{k}$ modes within the foreground wedge are excluded. With foreground wedge excluded and for $1024$ hours, the 1D marginalized errors are $(Delta M_{rm min}/M_{rm min},Delta N_{rm ion}/N_{rm ion},Delta R_{rm mfp}/R_{rm mfp})=(6.54, 2.71, 7.75) times 10^{-2}$ which are respectively $2 %$, $5 %$ and $23 %$ larger than the respective Gaussian predictions. The impact of non-Gaussianity increases for longer observations, and it is particularly important for $R_{rm mfp}$.
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The Epoch of Reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal is expected to become increasingly non-Gaussian as reionization proceeds. We have used semi-numerical simulations to study how this affects the error predictions for the EoR 21-cm power spectrum. We expect $SNR=sqrt{N_k}$ for a Gaussian random field where $N_k$ is the number of Fourier modes in each $k$ bin. We find that non-Gaussianity is important at high $SNR$ where it imposes an upper limit $[SNR]_l$. For a fixed volume $V$, it is not possible to achieve $SNR > [SNR]_l$ even if $N_k$ is increased. The value of $[SNR]_l$ falls as reionization proceeds, dropping from $sim 500$ at $bar{x}_{HI} = 0.8-0.9$ to $sim 10$ at $bar{x}_{HI} = 0.15 $ for a $[150.08, {rm Mpc}]^3$ simulation. We show that it is possible to interpret $[SNR]_l$ in terms of the trispectrum, and we expect $[SNR]_l propto sqrt{V}$ if the volume is increased. For $SNR ll [SNR]_l$ we find $SNR = sqrt{N_k}/A $ with $A sim 0.95 - 1.75$, roughly consistent with the Gaussian prediction. We present a fitting formula for the $SNR$ as a function of $N_k$, with two parameters $A$ and $[SNR]_l$ that have to be determined using simulations. Our results are relevant for predicting the sensitivity of different instruments to measure the EoR 21-cm power spectrum, which till date have been largely based on the Gaussian assumption.
Measuring the small primordial nonGaussianity (PNG) predicted by cosmic inflation theories may help diagnose them. The detectability of PNG by its imprint on the 21cm power spectrum from the epoch of reionization is reassessed here in terms of $f_{NL}$, the local nonlinearity parameter. We find that an optimum, multi-frequency observation by SKA can achieve $Delta f_{NL} sim 3$ (comparable to recent Planck CMB limits), while a cosmic-variance-limited array of this size like Omniscope can even detect $Delta f_{NL} sim 0.2$. This substantially revises the methods and results of previous work.
A proposed method for dealing with foreground emission in upcoming 21-cm observations from the epoch of reionization is to limit observations to an uncontaminated window in Fourier space. Foreground emission can be avoided in this way, since it is limited to a wedge-shaped region in $k_{parallel}, k_{perp}$ space. However, the power spectrum is anisotropic owing to redshift-space distortions from peculiar velocities. Consequently, the 21-cm power spectrum measured in the foreground avoidance window---which samples only a limited range of angles close to the line-of-sight direction---differs from the full spherically-averaged power spectrum which requires an average over emph{all} angles. In this paper, we calculate the magnitude of this wedge bias for the first time. We find that the bias is strongest at high redshifts, where measurements using foreground avoidance will over-estimate the power spectrum by around 100 per cent, possibly obscuring the distinctive rise and fall signature that is anticipated for the spherically-averaged 21-cm power spectrum. In the later stages of reionization, the bias becomes negative, and smaller in magnitude ($lesssim 20$ per cent). The effect shows only a weak dependence on spatial scale and reionization topology.
A number of experiments are currently working towards a measurement of the 21 cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization. Whether or not these experiments deliver a detection of cosmological emission, their limited sensitivity will prevent them from providing detailed information about the astrophysics of reionization. In this work, we consider what types of measurements will be enabled by a next-generation of larger 21 cm EoR telescopes. To calculate the type of constraints that will be possible with such arrays, we use simple models for the instrument, foreground emission, and the reionization history. We focus primarily on an instrument modeled after the $sim 0.1~rm{km}^2$ collecting area Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) concept design, and parameterize the uncertainties with regard to foreground emission by considering different limits to the recently described wedge footprint in k-space. Uncertainties in the reionization history are accounted for using a series of simulations which vary the ionizing efficiency and minimum virial temperature of the galaxies responsible for reionization, as well as the mean free path of ionizing photons through the IGM. Given various combinations of models, we consider the significance of the possible power spectrum detections, the ability to trace the power spectrum evolution versus redshift, the detectability of salient power spectrum features, and the achievable level of quantitative constraints on astrophysical parameters. Ultimately, we find that $0.1~rm{km}^2$ of collecting area is enough to ensure a very high significance ($gtrsim30sigma$) detection of the reionization power spectrum in even the most pessimistic scenarios. This sensitivity should allow for meaningful constraints on the reionization history and astrophysical parameters, especially if foreground subtraction techniques can be improved and successfully implemented.
The non-Gaussian nature of the epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal has a significant impact on the error variance of its power spectrum $P({bf textit{k}})$. We have used a large ensemble of semi-numerical simulations and an analytical model to estimate the effect of this non-Gaussianity on the entire error-covariance matrix ${mathcal{C}}_{ij}$. Our analytical model shows that ${mathcal{C}}_{ij}$ has contributions from two sources. One is the usual variance for a Gaussian random field which scales inversely of the number of modes that goes into the estimation of $P({bf textit{k}})$. The other is the trispectrum of the signal. Using the simulated 21-cm signal ensemble, an ensemble of the randomized signal and ensembles of Gaussian random ensembles we have quantified the effect of the trispectrum on the error variance ${mathcal{C}}_{ij}$. We find that its relative contribution is comparable to or larger than that of the Gaussian term for the $k$ range $0.3 leq k leq 1.0 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1}$, and can be even $sim 200$ times larger at $k sim 5, {rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We also establish that the off-diagonal terms of ${mathcal{C}}_{ij}$ have statistically significant non-zero values which arise purely from the trispectrum. This further signifies that the error in different $k$ modes are not independent. We find a strong correlation between the errors at large $k$ values ($ge 0.5 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1}$), and a weak correlation between the smallest and largest $k$ values. There is also a small anti-correlation between the errors in the smallest and intermediate $k$ values. These results are relevant for the $k$ range that will be probed by the current and upcoming EoR 21-cm experiments.
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