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Register a new userSpurious Point Source Signals in the Galactic Center Excess
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We re-examine evidence that the Galactic Center Excess (GCE) originates primarily from point sources (PSs). We show that in our region of interest, non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF) evidence for GCE PSs is an artifact of unmodeled north-south asymmetry of the GCE. This asymmetry is strongly favored by the fit (although it is unclear if this is physical), and when it is allowed, the preference for PSs becomes insignificant. We reproduce this behavior in simulations, including detailed properties of the spurious PS population. We conclude that NTPF evidence for GCE PSs is highly susceptible to certain systematic errors, and should not at present be taken to robustly disfavor a dominantly smooth GCE.
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The Galactic Center GeV excess (GCE) has garnered great interest as a possible signal of either dark matter annihilation or some novel astrophysical phenomenon, such as a new population of gamma-ray emitting pulsars. In a companion paper, we showed that in a $10^circ$ radius region of interest (ROI) surrounding the Galactic Center, apparent evidence for GCE point sources (PSs) from non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF) is actually an artifact of unmodeled north-south asymmetry of the GCE. In this work, we develop a simplified analytic description of how signal mismodeling can drive an apparent preference for a PS population, and demonstrate how the behavior pointed out in the companion paper also appears in simpler simulated datasets that contain no PS signals at all. We explore the generality of this behavior in the real gamma-ray data, and discuss the implications for past and future studies using NPTF techniques. While the drop in PS preference once north-south asymmetry is included is not ubiquitous in larger ROIs, we show that any overly-rigid signal model is expected to yield a spurious PS signal that can appear very convincing: as well as apparent significance comparable to what one would expect from a true PS population, the signal can exhibit stability against a range of variations in the analysis, and a source count function that is very consistent with previous apparent NPTF-based detections of a GCE PS population. This contrasts with previously-studied forms of systematic mismodeling which are unlikely to mimic a PS population in the same way. In the light of this observation, and its explicit realization in the region where the GCE is brightest, we argue that a dominantly smooth origin for the GCE is not in tension with existing NPTF analyses.
The Fermi Large Area Telescope has observed an excess of ~GeV energy gamma rays from the center of the Milky Way, which may arise from near-thermal dark matter annihilation. Firmly establishing the dark matter origin for this excess is however complicated by challenges in modeling diffuse cosmic-ray foregrounds as well as unresolved astrophysical sources, such as millisecond pulsars. Non-Poissonian Template Fitting (NPTF) is one statistical technique that has previously been used to show that at least some fraction of the GeV excess is likely due to a population of dim point sources. These results were recently called into question by Leane and Slatyer (2019), who showed that a synthetic dark matter annihilation signal injected on top of the real Fermi data is not recovered by the NPTF procedure. In this work, we perform a dedicated study of the Fermi data and explicitly show that the central result of Leane and Slatyer (2019) is likely driven by the fact that their choice of model for the Galactic foreground emission does not provide a sufficiently good description of the data. We repeat the NPTF analyses using a state-of-the-art model for diffuse gamma-ray emission in the Milky Way and introduce a novel statistical procedure, based on spherical-harmonic marginalization, to provide an improved description of the Galactic diffuse emission in a data-driven fashion. With these improvements, we find that the NPTF results continue to robustly favor the interpretation that the Galactic Center excess is due, in part, to unresolved astrophysical point sources across the analysis variations that we have explored.
The Fermi-LAT collaboration has recently released a new point source catalog, referred to as 4FGL. For the first time, we perform a template fit using information from this new catalog and find that the Galactic center excess is still present. On the other hand, we find that a wavelet-based search for point sources is highly sensitive to the use of the 4FGL catalog: no excess of bright regions on small angular scales is apparent when we mask out 4FGL point sources. We postulate that the 4FGL catalog contains the large majority of bright point sources that have previously been suggested to account for the excess in gamma rays detected at the Galactic center in Fermi-LAT data. Furthermore, after identifying which bright sources have no known counterpart, we place constraints on the luminosity function necessary for point sources to explain the smooth emission seen in the template fit.
The two leading hypotheses for the Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in the $textit{Fermi}$ data are an unresolved population of faint millisecond pulsars (MSPs) and dark-matter (DM) annihilation. The dichotomy between these explanations is typically reflected by modeling them as two separate emission components. However, point-sources (PSs) such as MSPs become statistically degenerate with smooth Poisson emission in the ultra-faint limit (formally where each source is expected to contribute much less than one photon on average), leading to an ambiguity that can render questions such as whether the emission is PS-like or Poissonian in nature ill-defined. We present a conceptually new approach that describes the PS and Poisson emission in a unified manner and only afterwards derives constraints on the Poissonian component from the so obtained results. For the implementation of this approach, we leverage deep learning techniques, centered around a neural network-based method for histogram regression that expresses uncertainties in terms of quantiles. We demonstrate that our method is robust against a number of systematics that have plagued previous approaches, in particular DM / PS misattribution. In the $textit{Fermi}$ data, we find a faint GCE described by a median source-count distribution (SCD) peaked at a flux of $sim4 times 10^{-11} text{counts} text{cm}^{-2} text{s}^{-1}$ (corresponding to $sim3 - 4$ expected counts per PS), which would require $N sim mathcal{O}(10^4)$ sources to explain the entire excess (median value $N = text{29,300}$ across the sky). Although faint, this SCD allows us to derive the constraint $eta_P leq 66%$ for the Poissonian fraction of the GCE flux $eta_P$ at 95% confidence, suggesting that a substantial amount of the GCE flux is due to PSs.
Studies of Fermi data indicate an excess of GeV gamma rays around the Galactic center (GC), possibly due to dark matter. We show that young gamma-ray pulsars can yield a similar signal. First, a high concentration of GC supernovae naturally leads to a population of kicked pulsars symmetric about the GC. Second, while very-young pulsars with soft spectra reside near the Galactic plane, pulsars with spectra that have hardened with age accumulate at larger angles. This combination, including unresolved foreground pulsars, traces the morphology and spectrum of the Excess.
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