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Register a new userA New Mask for An Old Suspect: Testing the Sensitivity of the Galactic Center Excess to the Point Source Mask
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The Fermi-LAT collaboration has recently released a new point source catalog, referred to as 4FGL. For the first time, we perform a template fit using information from this new catalog and find that the Galactic center excess is still present. On the other hand, we find that a wavelet-based search for point sources is highly sensitive to the use of the 4FGL catalog: no excess of bright regions on small angular scales is apparent when we mask out 4FGL point sources. We postulate that the 4FGL catalog contains the large majority of bright point sources that have previously been suggested to account for the excess in gamma rays detected at the Galactic center in Fermi-LAT data. Furthermore, after identifying which bright sources have no known counterpart, we place constraints on the luminosity function necessary for point sources to explain the smooth emission seen in the template fit.
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We re-examine evidence that the Galactic Center Excess (GCE) originates primarily from point sources (PSs). We show that in our region of interest, non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF) evidence for GCE PSs is an artifact of unmodeled north-south asymmetry of the GCE. This asymmetry is strongly favored by the fit (although it is unclear if this is physical), and when it is allowed, the preference for PSs becomes insignificant. We reproduce this behavior in simulations, including detailed properties of the spurious PS population. We conclude that NTPF evidence for GCE PSs is highly susceptible to certain systematic errors, and should not at present be taken to robustly disfavor a dominantly smooth GCE.
The Fermi Large Area Telescope has observed an excess of ~GeV energy gamma rays from the center of the Milky Way, which may arise from near-thermal dark matter annihilation. Firmly establishing the dark matter origin for this excess is however complicated by challenges in modeling diffuse cosmic-ray foregrounds as well as unresolved astrophysical sources, such as millisecond pulsars. Non-Poissonian Template Fitting (NPTF) is one statistical technique that has previously been used to show that at least some fraction of the GeV excess is likely due to a population of dim point sources. These results were recently called into question by Leane and Slatyer (2019), who showed that a synthetic dark matter annihilation signal injected on top of the real Fermi data is not recovered by the NPTF procedure. In this work, we perform a dedicated study of the Fermi data and explicitly show that the central result of Leane and Slatyer (2019) is likely driven by the fact that their choice of model for the Galactic foreground emission does not provide a sufficiently good description of the data. We repeat the NPTF analyses using a state-of-the-art model for diffuse gamma-ray emission in the Milky Way and introduce a novel statistical procedure, based on spherical-harmonic marginalization, to provide an improved description of the Galactic diffuse emission in a data-driven fashion. With these improvements, we find that the NPTF results continue to robustly favor the interpretation that the Galactic Center excess is due, in part, to unresolved astrophysical point sources across the analysis variations that we have explored.
The Galactic Center GeV excess (GCE) has garnered great interest as a possible signal of either dark matter annihilation or some novel astrophysical phenomenon, such as a new population of gamma-ray emitting pulsars. In a companion paper, we showed that in a $10^circ$ radius region of interest (ROI) surrounding the Galactic Center, apparent evidence for GCE point sources (PSs) from non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF) is actually an artifact of unmodeled north-south asymmetry of the GCE. In this work, we develop a simplified analytic description of how signal mismodeling can drive an apparent preference for a PS population, and demonstrate how the behavior pointed out in the companion paper also appears in simpler simulated datasets that contain no PS signals at all. We explore the generality of this behavior in the real gamma-ray data, and discuss the implications for past and future studies using NPTF techniques. While the drop in PS preference once north-south asymmetry is included is not ubiquitous in larger ROIs, we show that any overly-rigid signal model is expected to yield a spurious PS signal that can appear very convincing: as well as apparent significance comparable to what one would expect from a true PS population, the signal can exhibit stability against a range of variations in the analysis, and a source count function that is very consistent with previous apparent NPTF-based detections of a GCE PS population. This contrasts with previously-studied forms of systematic mismodeling which are unlikely to mimic a PS population in the same way. In the light of this observation, and its explicit realization in the region where the GCE is brightest, we argue that a dominantly smooth origin for the GCE is not in tension with existing NPTF analyses.
(abridged) The Galactic Center is one of the most promising targets for indirect detection of dark matter with gamma rays. We investigate the sensitivity of the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) to dark matter annihilation and decay in the Galactic Center. As the inner density profile of the Milky Ways dark matter halo is uncertain, we study the impact of the slope of the Galactic density profile, inwards of the Sun, on the prospects for detecting a dark matter signal with CTA. We find that the sensitivity achieved by CTA to annihilation signals is strongly dependent on the inner profile slope, whereas the dependence is more mild in the case of dark matter decay. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal choice of signal and background regions is virtually independent of the assumed density profile. For the fiducial case of a Navarro-Frenk-White profile, we find that CTA will be able to probe annihilation cross sections well below the canonical thermal relic value for dark matter masses from a few tens of GeV up to $sim 5$ TeV for annihilation to $tau^{+}tau^{-}$, and will achieve only a slightly weaker sensitivity for annihilation to $bbar{b}$ or $mu^{+}mu^{-}$. CTA will improve significantly on current sensitivity to annihilation signals for dark matter masses above $sim 100$ GeV, covering parameter space that is complementary to that probed by searches with the Fermi Large Area Telescope. The interpretation of apparent excesses in the measured cosmic-ray electron and positron spectra as signals of dark matter decay will also be testable with CTA observations of the Galactic Center. We demonstrate that both for annihilation and for decay, including spectral information for hard channels (such as $mu^{+}mu^{-}$ and $tau^{+}tau^{-}$) leads to enhanced sensitivity for dark matter masses above $m_{rm DM}sim 200$ GeV.
The leading explanation of the $textit{Fermi}$ Galactic center $gamma$-ray excess is the extended emission from a unresolved population of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in the Galactic bulge. Such a population would, along with the prompt $gamma$ rays, also inject large quantities of electrons/positrons ($e^pm$) into the interstellar medium. These $e^pm$ could potentially inverse-Compton (IC) scatter ambient photons into $gamma$ rays that fall within the sensitivity range of the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). In this article, we examine the detection potential of CTA to this signature by making a realistic estimation of the systematic uncertainties on the Galactic diffuse emission model at TeV-scale $gamma$-ray energies. We forecast that, in the event that $e^pm$ injection spectra are harder than $E^{-2}$, CTA has the potential to robustly discover the IC signature of a putative Galactic bulge MSP population sufficient to explain the GCE for $e^pm$ injection efficiencies in the range $approx 2.9-74.1%$, or higher, depending on the level of mismodeling of the Galactic diffuse emission components. On the other hand, for spectra softer than $E^{-2.5}$, a reliable CTA detection would require an unphysically large $e^pm$ injection efficiency of $gtrsim 158%$. However, even this pessimistic conclusion may be avoided in the plausible event that MSP observational and/or modeling uncertainties can be reduced. We further find that, in the event that an IC signal were detected, CTA can successfully discriminate between an MSP and a dark matter origin for the radiating $e^pm$.
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