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The purpose of this roadmap article is to draw attention to a paradigm shift in our understanding of evolution towards a perspective of ecological-evolutionary feedback, highlighted through two recent highly simplified examples of rapid evolution. The first example focuses primarily on population dynamics: anomalies in population cycles can reflect the influence of strong selection and the interplay with mutations. The second focuses primarily on the way in which ecological structure can potentially be influenced by what is arguably the most powerful source of genetic novelty: horizontal gene transfer. We review the status of rapid evolution and also enumerate the current and future challenges of achieving a full understanding of rapid evolution in all its manifestations.
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How cooperation can evolve between players is an unsolved problem of biology. Here we use Hamiltonian dynamics of models of the Ising type to describe populations of cooperating and defecting players to show that the equilibrium fraction of cooperators is given by the expectation value of a thermal observable akin to a magnetization. We apply the formalism to the Public Goods game with three players, and show that a phase transition between cooperation and defection occurs that is equivalent to a transition in one-dimensional Ising crystals with long-range interactions. We then investigate the effect of punishment on cooperation and find that punishment plays the role of a magnetic field that leads to an alignment between players, thus encouraging cooperation. We suggest that a thermal Hamiltonian picture of the evolution of cooperation can generate other insights about the dynamics of evolving groups by mining the rich literature of critical dynamics in low-dimensional spin systems.
Cooperative interactions pervade the dynamics of a broad rage of many-body systems, such as ecological communities, the organization of social structures, and economic webs. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of a simple population model that is driven by cooperative and symmetric interactions between two species. We develop a mean-field and a stochastic description for this cooperative two-species reaction scheme. For an isolated population, we determine the probability to reach a state of fixation, where only one species survives, as a function of the initial concentrations of the two species. We also determine the time to reach the fixation state. When each species can migrate into the population and replace a randomly selected individual, the population reaches a steady state. We show that this steady-state distribution undergoes a unimodal to trimodal transition as the migration rate is decreased beyond a critical value. In this low-migration regime, the steady state is not truly steady, but instead fluctuates strongly between near-fixation states of the two species. The characteristic time scale of these fluctuations diverges as $lambda^{-1}$.
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Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case studies, we construct an epidemiological model that focuses on transmission around the symptom onset. The model is calibrated against incubation period and pairwise transmission statistics during the initial outbreaks of the pandemic outside Wuhan with minimal non-pharmaceutical interventions. Mathematical treatment of the model yields explicit expressions for the size of latent and pre-symptomatic subpopulations during the exponential growth phase, with the local epidemic growth rate as input. We then explore reduction of the basic reproduction number R_0 through specific disease control measures such as contact tracing, testing, social distancing, wearing masks and sheltering in place. When these measures are implemented in combination, their effects on R_0 multiply. We also compare our model behaviour to the first wave of the COVID-19 spreading in various affected regions and highlight generic and less generic features of the pandemic development.
The competitive exclusion principle asserts that coexisting species must occupy distinct ecological niches (i.e. the number of surviving species can not exceed the number of resources). An open question is to understand if and how different resource dynamics affect this bound. Here, we analyze a generalized consumer resource model with externally supplied resources and show that -- in contrast to self-renewing resources -- species can occupy only half of all available environmental niches. This motivates us to construct a new schema for classifying ecosystems based on species packing properties.
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