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Time-Aware Gated Recurrent Unit Networks for Road Surface Friction Prediction Using Historical Data

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 Added by Ziyuan Pu
 Publication date 2019
and research's language is English




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An accurate road surface friction prediction algorithm can enable intelligent transportation systems to share timely road surface condition to the public for increasing the safety of the road users. Previously, scholars developed multiple prediction models for forecasting road surface conditions using historical data. However, road surface condition data cannot be perfectly collected at every timestamp, e.g. the data collected by on-vehicle sensors may be influenced when vehicles cannot travel due to economic cost issue or weather issues. Such resulted missing values in the collected data can damage the effectiveness and accuracy of the existing prediction methods since they are assumed to have the input data with a fixed temporal resolution. This study proposed a road surface friction prediction model employing a Gated Recurrent Unit network-based decay mechanism (GRU-D) to handle the missing values. The evaluation results present that the proposed GRU-D networks outperform all baseline models. The impact of missing rate on predictive accuracy, learning efficiency and learned decay rate are analyzed as well. The findings can help improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of forecasting road surface friction using historical data sets with missing values, therefore mitigating the impact of wet or icy road conditions on traffic safety.



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Road surface friction significantly impacts traffic safety and mobility. A precise road surface friction prediction model can help to alleviate the influence of inclement road conditions on traffic safety, Level of Service, traffic mobility, fuel efficiency, and sustained economic productivity. Most related previous studies are laboratory-based methods that are difficult for practical implementation. Moreover, in other data-driven methods, the demonstrated time-series features of road surface conditions have not been considered. This study employed a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to develop a data-driven road surface friction prediction model based on historical data. The proposed prediction model outperformed the other baseline models in terms of the lowest value of predictive performance measurements. The influence of the number of time-lags and the predicting time interval on predictive accuracy was analyzed. In addition, the influence of adding road surface water thickness, road surface temperature and air temperature on predictive accuracy also were investigated. The findings of this study can support road maintenance strategy development and decision making, thus mitigating the impact of inclement road conditions on traffic mobility and safety. Future work includes a modified LSTM-based prediction model development by accommodating flexible time intervals between time-lags.
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