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The decomposable branching processes are relatively less studied objects, particularly in the continuous time framework. In this paper, we consider various variants of decomposable continuous time branching processes. As usual practice in the theory of decomposable branching processes, we group various types into irreducible classes. These irreducible classes evolve according to the well-studied nondecomposable/ irreducible branching processes. And we investigate the time evolution of the population of various classes when the process is initiated by the other class particle(s). We obtained class-wise extinction probability and the time evolution of the population in the different classes. We then studied another peculiar type of decomposable branching process where any parent at the transition epoch either produces a random number of offspring, or its type gets changed (which may or may not be regarded as new offspring produced depending on the application). Such processes arise in modeling the content propagation of competing contents in online social networks. Here also, we obtain various performance measures. Additionally, we conjecture that the time evolution of the expected number of shares (different from the total progeny in irreducible branching processes) is given by the sum of two exponential curves corresponding to the two different classes.
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We present an analysis of a person-to-person recommendation network, consisting of 4 million people who made 16 million recommendations on half a million products. We observe the propagation of recommendations and the cascade sizes, which we explain by a simple stochastic model. We analyze how user behavior varies within user communities defined by a recommendation network. Product purchases follow a long tail where a significant share of purchases belongs to rarely sold items. We establish how the recommendation network grows over time and how effective it is from the viewpoint of the sender and receiver of the recommendations. While on average recommendations are not very effective at inducing purchases and do not spread very far, we present a model that successfully identifies communities, product and pricing categories for which viral marketing seems to be very effective.
We introduce and study the dynamics of an emph{immortal} critical branching process. In the classic, critical branching process, particles give birth to a single offspring or die at the same rates. Even though the average population is constant in time, the ultimate fate of the population is extinction. We augment this branching process with immortality by positing that either: (a) a single particle cannot die, or (b) there exists an immortal stem cell that gives birth to ordinary cells that can subsequently undergo critical branching. We discuss the new dynamical aspects of this immortal branching process.
T. E. Harris was a pioneer par excellence in many fields of probability theory. In this paper, we give a brief survey of the many fundamental contributions of Harris to the theory of branching processes, starting with his doctoral work at Princeton in the late forties and culminating in his fundamental book The Theory of Branching Processes, published in 1963.
Bio-inspired paradigms are proving to be useful in analyzing propagation and dissemination of information in networks. In this paper we explore the use of multi-type branching processes to analyse viral properties of content in a social network, with and without competition from other sources. We derive and compute various virality measures, e.g., probability of virality, expected number of shares, or the rate of growth of expected number of shares etc. They allow one to predict the emergence of global macro properties (e.g., viral spread of a post in the entire network) from the laws and parameters that determine local interactions. The local interactions, greatly depend upon the structure of the timelines holding the content and the number of friends (i.e., connections) of users of the network. We then formulate a non-cooperative game problem and study the Nash equilibria as a function of the parameters. The branching processes modelling the social network under competition turn out to be decomposable, multi-type and continuous time variants. For such processes types belonging to different sub-classes evolve at different rates and have different probabilities of extinction etc. We compute content provider wise extinction probability, rate of growth etc. We also conjecture the content-provider wise growth rate of expected shares.
The Viral Marketing is a relatively new form of marketing that exploits social networks to promote a brand, a product, etc. The idea behind it is to find a set of influencers on the network that can trigger a large cascade of propagation and adoptions. In this paper, we will introduce an evidential opinion-based influence maximization model for viral marketing. Besides, our approach tackles three opinions based scenarios for viral marketing in the real world. The first scenario concerns influencers who have a positive opinion about the product. The second scenario deals with influencers who have a positive opinion about the product and produce effects on users who also have a positive opinion. The third scenario involves influence users who have a positive opinion about the product and produce effects on the negative opinion of other users concerning the product in question. Next, we proposed six influence measures, two for each scenario. We also use an influence maximization model that the set of detected influencers for each scenario. Finally, we show the performance of the proposed model with each influence measure through some experiments conducted on a generated dataset and a real world dataset collected from Twitter.
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