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Register a new userC2P2: A Collective Cryptocurrency Up/Down Price Prediction Engine
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We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the fact that the price of a cryptocurrency c might depend not only on historical prices, sentiments, global stock indices, but also on the prices and predicted prices of other cryptocurrencies. C2P2 therefore does not predict cryptocurrency prices one coin at a time --- rather it uses similarity metrics in conjunction with collective classification to compare multiple cryptocurrency features to jointly predict the cryptocurrency prices for all 21 coins considered. We show that our C2P2 algorithm beats out a recent competing 2017 paper by margins varying from 5.1-83% and another Bitcoin-specific prediction paper from 2018 by 16%. In both cases, C2P2 is the winner on all cryptocurrencies considered. Moreover, we experimentally show that the use of similarity metrics within our C2P2 algorithm leads to a direct improvement for 20 out of 21 cryptocurrencies ranging from 0.4% to 17.8%. Without the similarity component, C2P2 still beats competitors on 20 out of 21 cryptocurrencies considered. We show that all these results are statistically significant via a Students t-test with p<1e-5. Check our demo at https://www.cs.dartmouth.edu/dsail/demos/c2p2
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We present Luce, the first life-long predictive model for automated property valuation. Luce addresses two critical issues of property valuation: the lack of recent sold prices and the sparsity of house data. It is designed to operate on a limited volume of recent house transaction data. As a departure from prior work, Luce organizes the house data in a heterogeneous information network (HIN) where graph nodes are house entities and attributes that are important for house price valuation. We employ a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to extract the spatial information from the HIN for house-related data like geographical locations, and then use a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network to model the temporal dependencies for house transaction data over time. Unlike prior work, Luce can make effective use of the limited house transactions data in the past few months to update valuation information for all house entities within the HIN. By providing a complete and up-to-date house valuation dataset, Luce thus massively simplifies the downstream valuation task for the targeting properties. We demonstrate the benefit of Luce by applying it to large, real-life datasets obtained from the Toronto real estate market. Extensive experimental results show that Luce not only significantly outperforms prior property valuation methods but also often reaches and sometimes exceeds the valuation accuracy given by independent experts when using the actual realization price as the ground truth.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently been used for node and graph classification tasks with great success, but GNNs model dependencies among the attributes of nearby neighboring nodes rather than dependencies among observed node labels. In this work, we consider the task of inductive node classification using GNNs in supervised and semi-supervised settings, with the goal of incorporating label dependencies. Because current GNNs are not universal (i.e., most-expressive) graph representations, we propose a general collective learning approach to increase the representation power of any existing GNN. Our framework combines ideas from collective classification with self-supervised learning, and uses a Monte Carlo approach to sampling embeddings for inductive learning across graphs. We evaluate performance on five real-world network datasets and demonstrate consistent, significant improvement in node classification accuracy, for a variety of state-of-the-art GNNs.
The intention of this research is to study and design an automated agriculture commodity price prediction system with novel machine learning techniques. Due to the increasing large amounts historical data of agricultural commodity prices and the need of performing accurate prediction of price fluctuations, the solution has largely shifted from statistical methods to machine learning area. However, the selection of proper set from historical data for forecasting still has limited consideration. On the other hand, when implementing machine learning techniques, finding a suitable model with optimal parameters for global solution, nonlinearity and avoiding curse of dimensionality are still biggest challenges, therefore machine learning strategies study are needed. In this research, we propose a web-based automated system to predict agriculture commodity price. In the two series experiments, five popular machine learning algorithms, ARIMA, SVR, Prophet, XGBoost and LSTM have been compared with large historical datasets in Malaysia and the most optimal algorithm, LSTM model with an average of 0.304 mean-square error has been selected as the prediction engine of the proposed system.
We investigate whether the standard dimensionality reduction technique of PCA inadvertently produces data representations with different fidelity for two different populations. We show on several real-world data sets, PCA has higher reconstruction error on population A than on B (for example, women versus men or lower- versus higher-educated individuals). This can happen even when the data set has a similar number of samples from A and B. This motivates our study of dimensionality reduction techniques which maintain similar fidelity for A and B. We define the notion of Fair PCA and give a polynomial-time algorithm for finding a low dimensional representation of the data which is nearly-optimal with respect to this measure. Finally, we show on real-world data sets that our algorithm can be used to efficiently generate a fair low dimensional representation of the data.
Recent studies in big data analytics and natural language processing develop automatic techniques in analyzing sentiment in the social media information. In addition, the growing user base of social media and the high volume of posts also provide valuable sentiment information to predict the price fluctuation of the cryptocurrency. This research is directed to predicting the volatile price movement of cryptocurrency by analyzing the sentiment in social media and finding the correlation between them. While previous work has been developed to analyze sentiment in English social media posts, we propose a method to identify the sentiment of the Chinese social media posts from the most popular Chinese social media platform Sina-Weibo. We develop the pipeline to capture Weibo posts, describe the creation of the crypto-specific sentiment dictionary, and propose a long short-term memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural network along with the historical cryptocurrency price movement to predict the price trend for future time frames. The conducted experiments demonstrate the proposed approach outperforms the state of the art auto regressive based model by 18.5% in precision and 15.4% in recall.
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