The problem of behaviour prediction for linear parameter-varying systems is considered in the interval framework. It is assumed that the system is subject to uncertain inputs and the vector of scheduling parameters is unmeasurable, but all uncertainties take values in a given admissible set. Then an interval predictor is designed and its stability is guaranteed applying Lyapunov function with a novel structure. The conditions of stability are formulated in the form of linear matrix inequalities. Efficiency of the theoretical results is demonstrated in the application to safe motion planning for autonomous vehicles.
The issues of robust stability for two types of uncertain fractional-order systems of order $alpha in (0,1)$ are dealt with in this paper. For the polytope-type uncertainty case, a less conservative sufficient condition of robust stability is given; for the norm-bounded uncertainty case, a sufficient and necessary condition of robust stability is presented. Both of these conditions can be checked by solving sets of linear matrix inequalities. Two numerical examples are presented to confirm the proposed conditions.
We design a prediction market to recover a complete and fully general probability distribution over a random variable. Traders buy and sell interval securities that pay $1 if the outcome falls into an interval and $0 otherwise. Our market takes the form of a central automated market maker and allows traders to express interval endpoints of arbitrary precision. We present two designs in both of which market operations take time logarithmic in the number of intervals (that traders distinguish), providing the first computationally efficient market for a continuous variable. Our first design replicates the popular logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR), but operates exponentially faster than a standard LMSR by exploiting its modularity properties to construct a balanced binary tree and decompose computations along the tree nodes. The second design consists of two or more parallel LMSR market makers that mediate submarkets of increasingly fine-grained outcome partitions. This design remains computationally efficient for all operations, including arbitrage removal across submarkets. It adds two additional benefits for the market designer: (1) the ability to express utility for information at various resolutions by assigning different liquidity values, and (2) the ability to guarantee a true constant bounded loss by appropriately decreasing the liquidity in each submarket.
Trajectory optimization considers the problem of deciding how to control a dynamical system to move along a trajectory which minimizes some cost function. Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) is an optimal control method which utilizes a second-order approximation of the problem to find the control. It is fast enough to allow real-time control and has been shown to work well for trajectory optimization in robotic systems. Here we extend classic DDP to systems with multiple time-delays in the state. Being able to find optimal trajectories for time-delayed systems with DDP opens up the possibility to use richer models for system identification and control, including recurrent neural networks with multiple timesteps in the state. We demonstrate the algorithm on a two-tank continuous stirred tank reactor. We also demonstrate the algorithm on a recurrent neural network trained to model an inverted pendulum with position information only.
We provide a framework for speeding up algorithms for time-bounded reachability analysis of continuous-time Markov decision processes. The principle is to find a small, but almost equivalent subsystem of the original system and only analyse the subsystem. Candidates for the subsystem are identified through simulations and iteratively enlarged until runs are represented in the subsystem with high enough probability. The framework is thus dual to that of abstraction refinement. We instantiate the framework in several ways with several traditional algorithms and experimentally confirm orders-of-magnitude speed ups in many cases.
This paper studies delayed synchronization of continuous-time multi-agent systems (MAS) in the presence of unknown nonuniform communication delays. A delay-free transformation is developed based on a communication network which is a directed spanning tree, which can transform the original MAS to a new one without delays. By using this transformation, we design a static protocol for full-state coupling and a dynamic protocol for delayed state synchronization for homogeneous MAS via full- and partial-state coupling. Meanwhile, the delayed output synchronization is also studied for heterogeneous MAS, which is achieved by using a low-gain and output regulation based dynamic protocol design via the delay-free transformation.