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Register a new userAn alternative interpretation of the exomoon candidate signal in the combined Kepler and Hubble data of Kepler-1625
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Rene Heller
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Kepler and Hubble photometry of a total of four transits by the Jupiter-sized Kepler-1625b have recently been interpreted to show evidence of a Neptune-sized exomoon. The profound implications of this first possible exomoon detection and the physical oddity of the proposed moon, that is, its giant radius prompt us to re-examine the data and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) used for detection. We combine the Kepler data with the previously published Hubble light curve. In an alternative approach, we perform a synchronous polynomial detrending and fitting of the Kepler data combined with our own extraction of the Hubble photometry. We generate five million MCMC realizations of the data with both a planet-only model and a planet-moon model and compute the BIC difference (DeltaBIC) between the most likely models, respectively. DeltaBIC values of -44.5 (using previously published Hubble data) and -31.0 (using our own detrending) yield strongly support the exomoon interpretation. Most of our orbital realizations, however, are very different from the best-fit solutions, suggesting that the likelihood function that best describes the data is non-Gaussian. We measure a 73.7min early arrival of Kepler-1625b for its Hubble transit at the 3 sigma level, possibly caused by a 1 day data gap near the first Kepler transit, stellar activity, or unknown systematics. The radial velocity amplitude of a possible unseen hot Jupiter causing Kepler-1625bs transit timing variation could be some 100m/s. Although we find a similar solution to the planet-moon model as previously proposed, careful consideration of its statistical evidence leads us to believe that this is not a secure exomoon detection. Unknown systematic errors in the Kepler/Hubble data make the DeltaBIC an unreliable metric for an exomoon search around Kepler-1625b, allowing for alternative interpretations of the signal.
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Transit photometry of the exoplanet candidate Kepler-1625b has recently been interpreted to show hints of a moon. We aim to clarify whether the exomoon-like signal is really caused by a large object in orbit around Kepler-1625b. We explore several detrending procedures, i.e. polynomials and the Cosine Filtering with Autocorrelation Minimization (CoFiAM). We then supply a light curve simulator with the co-planar orbital dynamics of the system and fit the resulting planet-moon transit light curves to the Kepler data. We employ the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess whether a single planet or a planet-moon system is a more likely interpretation of the light curve variations. We carry out a blind hare-and-hounds exercise using many noise realizations by injecting simulated transits into different out-of-transit parts of the original Kepler-1625 data: 100 sequences with 3 synthetic transits of a Kepler-1625b-like planet and 100 sequences with 3 synthetic transits of this planet with a Neptune-sized moon. The statistical significance and characteristics of the exomoon-like signal strongly depend on the detrending method, and the data chosen for detrending, and on the treatment of gaps in the light curve. Our injection-retrieval experiment shows evidence for moons in about 10% of those light curves that do not contain an injected moon. Strikingly, many of these false-positive moons resemble the exomoon candidate. We recover up to about half of the injected moons, depending on the detrending method, with radii and orbital distances broadly corresponding to the injected values. A $Delta$BIC of -4.9 for the CoFiAM-based detrending indicates an exomoon around Kepler-1625b. This solution, however, is only one out of many and we find very different solutions depending on the details of the detrending method. It is worrying that the detrending is key to the interpretation of the data.
The (yet-to-be confirmed) discovery of a Neptune-sized moon around the ~3.2 Jupiter-mass planet in Kepler 1625 puts interesting constraints on the formation of the system. In particular, the relatively wide orbit of the moon around the planet, at ~40 planetary radii, is hard to reconcile with planet formation theories. We demonstrate that the observed characteristics of the system can be explained from the tidal capture of a secondary planet in the young system. After a quick phase of tidal circularization, the lunar orbit, initially much tighter than 40 planetary radii, subsequently gradually widened due to tidal synchronization of the spin of the planet with the orbit, resulting in a synchronous planet-moon system. Interestingly, in our scenario the captured object was originally a Neptune-like planet, turned into a moon by its capture.
Observations of the Kepler-1625 system with the Kepler and Hubble Space Telescopes have suggested the presence of a candidate exomoon, Kepler-1625b I, a Neptune-radius satellite orbiting a long-period Jovian planet. Here we present a new analysis of the Hubble observations, using an independent data reduction pipeline. We find that the transit light curve is well fit with a planet-only model, with a best-fit $chi^2_ u$ equal to 1.01. The addition of a moon does not significantly improve the fit quality. We compare our results directly with the original light curve from Teachey & Kipping (2018), and find that we obtain a better fit to the data using a model with fewer free parameters (no moon). We discuss possible sources for the discrepancy in our results, and conclude that the lunar transit signal found by Teachey & Kipping (2018) was likely an artifact of the data reduction. This finding highlights the need to develop independent pipelines to confirm results that push the limits of measurement precision.
In this work we empirically measure the detection efficiency of Kepler pipeline used to create the final Kepler Threshold Crossing Event (TCE; Twicken et al. 2016) and planet candidate catalogs (Thompson et al. 2018), a necessary ingredient for occurrence rate calculations using these lists. By injecting simulated signals into the calibrated pixel data and processing those pixels through the pipeline as normal, we quantify the detection probability of signals as a function of their signal strength and orbital period. In addition we investigate the dependence of the detection efficiency on parameters of the target stars and their location in the Kepler field of view. We find that the end-of-mission version of the Kepler pipeline returns to a high overall detection efficiency, averaging a 90-95% rate of detection for strong signals across a wide variety of parameter space. We find a weak dependence of the detection efficiency on the number of transits contributing to the signal and the orbital period of the signal, and a stronger dependence on the stellar effective temperature and correlated noise properties. We also find a weak dependence of the detection efficiency on the position within the field of view. By restricting the Kepler stellar sample to stars with well-behaved correlated noise properties, we can define a set of stars with high detection efficiency for future occurrence rate calculations.
The Kepler object KIC 12557548 shows irregular eclipsing behaviour with a constant 15.685 hr period, but strongly varying transit depth. In this paper we fit individual eclipses, in addition to fitting binned light curves, to learn more about the process underlying the eclipse depth variation. Additionally, we put forward observational constraints that any model of this planet-star system will have to match. We find two quiescent spells of ~30 orbital periods each where the transit depth is <0.1%, followed by relatively deep transits. Additionally, we find periods of on-off behaviour where >0.5% deep transits are followed by apparently no transit at all. Apart from these isolated events we find neither significant correlation between consecutive transit depths nor a correlation between transit depth and stellar intensity. We find a three-sigma upper limit for the secondary eclipse of 4.9*10^-5, consistent with a planet candidate with a radius of less than 4600 km. Using the short cadence data we find that a 1-D exponential dust tail model is insufficient to explain the data. We improved our model to a 2-D, two-component dust model with an opaque core and an exponential tail. Using this model we fit individual eclipses observed in short cadence mode. We find an improved fit of the data, quantifying earlier suggestions by Budaj (2013) of the necessity of at least two components. We find that deep transits have most absorption in the tail, and not in a disk-shaped, opaque coma, but the transit depth and the total absorption show no correlation with the tail length.
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