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Register a new userHow do Mixture Density RNNs Predict the Future?
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Added by
Kai Olav Ellefsen
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Gaining a better understanding of how and what machine learning systems learn is important to increase confidence in their decisions and catalyze further research. In this paper, we analyze the predictions made by a specific type of recurrent neural network, mixture density RNNs (MD-RNNs). These networks learn to model predictions as a combination of multiple Gaussian distributions, making them particularly interesting for problems where a sequence of inputs may lead to several distinct future possibilities. An example is learning internal models of an environment, where different events may or may not occur, but where the average over different events is not meaningful. By analyzing the predictions made by trained MD-RNNs, we find that their different Gaussian components have two complementary roles: 1) Separately modeling different stochastic events and 2) Separately modeling scenarios governed by different rules. These findings increase our understanding of what is learned by predictive MD-RNNs, and open up new research directions for further understanding how we can benefit from their self-organizing model decomposition.
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The best performing Binary Neural Networks (BNNs) are usually attained using Adam optimization and its multi-step training variants. However, to the best of our knowledge, few studies explore the fundamental reasons why Adam is superior to other optimizers like SGD for BNN optimization or provide analytical explanations that support specific training strategies. To address this, in this paper we first investigate the trajectories of gradients and weights in BNNs during the training process. We show the regularization effect of second-order momentum in Adam is crucial to revitalize the weights that are dead due to the activation saturation in BNNs. We find that Adam, through its adaptive learning rate strategy, is better equipped to handle the rugged loss surface of BNNs and reaches a better optimum with higher generalization ability. Furthermore, we inspect the intriguing role of the real-valued weights in binary networks, and reveal the effect of weight decay on the stability and sluggishness of BNN optimization. Through extensive experiments and analysis, we derive a simple training scheme, building on existing Adam-based optimization, which achieves 70.5% top-1 accuracy on the ImageNet dataset using the same architecture as the state-of-the-art ReActNet while achieving 1.1% higher accuracy. Code and models are available at https://github.com/liuzechun/AdamBNN.
This is a method report for the Kaggle data competition Predict future sales. In this paper, we propose a rather simple approach to future sales predicting based on feature engineering, Random Forest Regressor and ensemble learning. Its performance turned out to exceed many of the conventional methods and get final score 0.88186, representing root mean squared error. As of this writing, our model ranked 5th on the leaderboard. (till 8.5.2018)
Since reward functions are hard to specify, recent work has focused on learning policies from human feedback. However, such approaches are impeded by the expense of acquiring such feedback. Recent work proposed that agents have access to a source of information that is effectively free: in any environment that humans have acted in, the state will already be optimized for human preferences, and thus an agent can extract information about what humans want from the state. Such learning is possible in principle, but requires simulating all possible past trajectories that could have led to the observed state. This is feasible in gridworlds, but how do we scale it to complex tasks? In this work, we show that by combining a learned feature encoder with learned inverse models, we can enable agents to simulate human actions backwards in time to infer what they must have done. The resulting algorithm is able to reproduce a specific skill in MuJoCo environments given a single state sampled from the optimal policy for that skill.
We study Thompson sampling (TS) in online decision-making problems where the uncertain environment is sampled from a mixture distribution. This is relevant to multi-task settings, where a learning agent is faced with different classes of problems. We incorporate this structure in a natural way by initializing TS with a mixture prior -- dubbed MixTS -- and develop a novel, general technique for analyzing the regret of TS with such priors. We apply this technique to derive Bayes regret bounds for MixTS in both linear bandits and tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). Our regret bounds reflect the structure of the problem and depend on the number of components and confidence width of each component of the prior. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of MixTS in both synthetic and real-world experiments.
The concept of utilizing multi-step returns for updating value functions has been adopted in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for a number of years. Updating value functions with different backup lengths provides advantages in different aspects, including bias and variance of value estimates, convergence speed, and exploration behavior of the agent. Conventional methods such as TD-lambda leverage these advantages by using a target value equivalent to an exponential average of different step returns. Nevertheless, integrating step returns into a single target sacrifices the diversity of the advantages offered by different step return targets. To address this issue, we propose Mixture Bootstrapped DQN (MB-DQN) built on top of bootstrapped DQN, and uses different backup lengths for different bootstrapped heads. MB-DQN enables heterogeneity of the target values that is unavailable in approaches relying only on a single target value. As a result, it is able to maintain the advantages offered by different backup lengths. In this paper, we first discuss the motivational insights through a simple maze environment. In order to validate the effectiveness of MB-DQN, we perform experiments on the Atari 2600 benchmark environments, and demonstrate the performance improvement of MB-DQN over a number of baseline methods. We further provide a set of ablation studies to examine the impacts of different design configurations of MB-DQN.
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