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Register a new userUncertainty Quantification for Markov Processes via Variational Principles and Functional Inequalities
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Information-theory based variational principles have proven effective at providing scalable uncertainty quantification (i.e. robustness) bounds for quantities of interest in the presence of nonparametric model-form uncertainty. In this work, we combine such variational formulas with functional inequalities (Poincar{e}, $log$-Sobolev, Liapunov functions) to derive explicit uncertainty quantification bounds for time-averaged observables, comparing a Markov process to a second (not necessarily Markov) process. These bounds are well-behaved in the infinite-time limit and apply to steady-states of both discrete and continuous-time Markov processes.
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We obtain moment and Gaussian bounds for general Lipschitz functions evaluated along the sample path of a Markov chain. We treat Markov chains on general (possibly unbounded) state spaces via a coupling method. If the first moment of the coupling time exists, then we obtain a variance inequality. If a moment of order 1+epsilon of the coupling time exists, then depending on the behavior of the stationary distribution, we obtain higher moment bounds. This immediately implies polynomial concentration inequalities. In the case that a moment of order 1+epsilon is finite uniformly in the starting point of the coupling, we obtain a Gaussian bound. We illustrate the general results with house of cards processes, in which both uniform and non-uniform behavior of moments of the coupling time can occur.
We prove pathwise large-deviation principles of switching Markov processes by exploiting the connection to associated Hamilton-Jacobi equations, following Jin Fengs and Thomas Kurtzs method. In the limit that we consider, we show how the large-deviation problem in path-space reduces to a spectral problem of finding principal eigenvalues. The large-deviation rate functions are given in action-integral form. As an application, we demonstrate how macroscopic transport properties of stochastic models of molecular motors can be deduced from an associated principal-eigenvalue problem. The precise characterization of the macroscopic velocity in terms of principal eigenvalues implies that breaking of detailed balance is necessary for obtaining transport. In this way, we extend and unify existing results about molecular motors and place them in the framework of stochastic processes and large-deviation theory.
Rare events, and more general risk-sensitive quantities-of-interest (QoIs), are significantly impacted by uncertainty in the tail behavior of a distribution. Uncertainty in the tail can take many different forms, each of which leads to a particular ambiguity set of alternative models. Distributional robustness bounds over such an ambiguity set constitute a stress-test of the model. In this paper we develop a method, utilizing Renyi-divergences, of constructing the ambiguity set that captures a user-specified form of tail-perturbation. We then obtain distributional robustness bounds (performance guarantees) for risk-sensitive QoIs over these ambiguity sets, using the known connection between Renyi-divergences and robustness for risk-sensitive QoIs. We also expand on this connection in several ways, including a generalization of the Donsker-Varadhan variational formula to Renyi divergences, and various tightness results. These ideas are illustrated through applications to uncertainty quantification in a model of lithium-ion battery failure, robustness of large deviations rate functions, and risk-sensitive distributionally robust optimization for option pricing.
We investigate the dissipativity properties of a class of scalar second order parabolic partial differential equations with time-dependent coefficients. We provide explicit condition on the drift term which ensure that the relative entropy of one particular orbit with respect to some other one decreases to zero. The decay rate is obtained explicitly by the use of a Sobolev logarithmic inequality for the associated semigroup, which is derived by an adaptation of Bakrys $Gamma-$ calculus. As a byproduct, the systematic method for constructing entropies which we propose here also yields the well-known intermediate asymptotics for the heat equation in a very quick way, and without having to rescale the original equation.
We present a general framework for uncertainty quantification that is a mosaic of interconnected models. We define global first and second order structural and correlative sensitivity analyses for random counting measures acting on risk functionals of input-output maps. These are the ANOVA decomposition of the intensity measure and the decomposition of the random measure variance, each into subspaces. Orthogonal random measures furnish sensitivity distributions. We show that the random counting measure may be used to construct positive random fields, which admit decompositions of covariance and sensitivity indices and may be used to represent interacting particle systems. The first and second order global sensitivity analyses conveyed through random counting measures elucidate and integrate different notions of uncertainty quantification, and the global sensitivity analysis of random fields conveys the proportionate functional contributions to covariance. This framework complements others when used in conjunction with for instance algorithmic uncertainty and model selection uncertainty frameworks.
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