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Register a new userSign-Perturbed Sums: A New System Identification Approach for Constructing Exact Non-Asymptotic Confidence Regions in Linear Regression Models
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We propose a new system identification method, called Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS), for constructing non-asymptotic confidence regions under mild statistical assumptions. SPS is introduced for linear regression models, including but not limited to FIR systems, and we show that the SPS confidence regions have exact confidence probabilities, i.e., they contain the true parameter with a user-chosen exact probability for any finite data set. Moreover, we also prove that the SPS regions are star convex with the Least-Squares (LS) estimate as a star center. The main assumptions of SPS are that the noise terms are independent and symmetrically distributed about zero, but they can be nonstationary, and their distributions need not be known. The paper also proposes a computationally efficient ellipsoidal outer approximation algorithm for SPS. Finally, SPS is demonstrated through a number of simulation experiments.
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A model-based optimal experiment design (OED) of nonlinear systems is studied. OED represents a methodology for optimizing the geometry of the parametric joint-confidence regions (CRs), which are obtained in an a posteriori analysis of the least-squares parameter estimates. The optimal design is achieved by using the available (experimental) degrees of freedom such that more informative measurements are obtained. Unlike the commonly used approaches, which base the OED procedure upon the linearized CRs, we explore a path where we explicitly consider the exact CRs in the OED framework. We use a methodology for a finite parametrization of the exact CRs within the OED problem and we introduce a novel approximation technique of the exact CRs using inner- and outer-approximating ellipsoids as a computationally less demanding alternative. The employed techniques give the OED problem as a finite-dimensional mathematical program of bilevel nature. We use two small-scale illustrative case studies to study various OED criteria and compare the resulting optimal designs with the commonly used linearization-based approach. We also assess the performance of two simple heuristic numerical schemes for bilevel optimization within the studied problems.
A novel algorithm named Perturbed Prox-Preconditioned SPIDER (3P-SPIDER) is introduced. It is a stochastic variancereduced proximal-gradient type algorithm built on Stochastic Path Integral Differential EstimatoR (SPIDER), an algorithm known to achieve near-optimal first-order oracle inequality for nonconvex and nonsmooth optimization. Compared to the vanilla prox-SPIDER, 3P-SPIDER uses preconditioned gradient estimators. Preconditioning can either be applied explicitly to a gradient estimator or be introduced implicitly as in applications to the EM algorithm. 3P-SPIDER also assumes that the preconditioned gradients may (possibly) be not known in closed analytical form and therefore must be approximated which adds an additional degree of perturbation. Studying the convergence in expectation, we show that 3P-SPIDER achieves a near-optimal oracle inequality O(n^(1/2) /epsilon) where n is the number of observations and epsilon the target precision even when the gradient is estimated by Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate the algorithm on an application to the minimization of a penalized empirical loss.
Linear models are regularly used for mapping cores to tiles in a chip. System-on-Chip (SoC) design requires integration of functional units with varying sizes, but conventional models only account for identical-sized cores. Linear models cannot calculate the varying areas of cores in SoCs directly and must rely on approximations. We propose using non-linear models: Semi-definite programming (SDP) allows easy model definitions and achieves approximately 20% reduced area and up to 80% reduced white space. As computational time is similar to linear models, they can be applied, practically.
Field observations form the basis of many scientific studies, especially in ecological and social sciences. Despite efforts to conduct such surveys in a standardized way, observations can be prone to systematic measurement errors. The removal of systematic variability introduced by the observation process, if possible, can greatly increase the value of this data. Existing non-parametric techniques for correcting such errors assume linear additive noise models. This leads to biased estimates when applied to generalized linear models (GLM). We present an approach based on residual functions to address this limitation. We then demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic data and show it reduces systematic detection variability in moth surveys.
This paper proposes a fast and accurate method for sparse regression in the presence of missing data. The underlying statistical model encapsulates the low-dimensional structure of the incomplete data matrix and the sparsity of the regression coefficients, and the proposed algorithm jointly learns the low-dimensional structure of the data and a linear regressor with sparse coefficients. The proposed stochastic optimization method, Sparse Linear Regression with Missing Data (SLRM), performs an alternating minimization procedure and scales well with the problem size. Large deviation inequalities shed light on the impact of the various problem-dependent parameters on the expected squared loss of the learned regressor. Extensive simulations on both synthetic and real datasets show that SLRM performs better than competing algorithms in a variety of contexts.
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