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Register a new userMPC-Inspired Neural Network Policies for Sequential Decision Making
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David D. Fan
Publication date
2018
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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In this paper we investigate the use of MPC-inspired neural network policies for sequential decision making. We introduce an extension to the DAgger algorithm for training such policies and show how they have improved training performance and generalization capabilities. We take advantage of this extension to show scalable and efficient training of complex planning policy architectures in continuous state and action spaces. We provide an extensive comparison of neural network policies by considering feed forward policies, recurrent policies, and recurrent policies with planning structure inspired by the Path Integral control framework. Our results suggest that MPC-type recurrent policies have better robustness to disturbances and modeling error.
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Even though model predictive control (MPC) is currently the main algorithm for insulin control in the artificial pancreas (AP), it usually requires complex online optimizations, which are infeasible for resource-constrained medical devices. MPC also typically relies on state estimation, an error-prone process. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to AP control that uses Imitation Learning to synthesize neural-network insulin policies from MPC-computed demonstrations. Such policies are computationally efficient and, by instrumenting MPC at training time with full state information, they can directly map measurements into optimal therapy decisions, thus bypassing state estimation. We apply Bayesian inference via Monte Carlo Dropout to learn policies, which allows us to quantify prediction uncertainty and thereby derive safer therapy decisions. We show that our control policies trained under a specific patient model readily generalize (in terms of model parameters and disturbance distributions) to patient cohorts, consistently outperforming traditional MPC with state estimation.
The recent success of supervised learning methods on ever larger offline datasets has spurred interest in the reinforcement learning (RL) field to investigate whether the same paradigms can be translated to RL algorithms. This research area, known as offline RL, has largely focused on offline policy optimization, aiming to find a return-maximizing policy exclusively from offline data. In this paper, we consider a slightly different approach to incorporating offline data into sequential decision-making. We aim to answer the question, what unsupervised objectives applied to offline datasets are able to learn state representations which elevate performance on downstream tasks, whether those downstream tasks be online RL, imitation learning from expert demonstrations, or even offline policy optimization based on the same offline dataset? Through a variety of experiments utilizing standard offline RL datasets, we find that the use of pretraining with unsupervised learning objectives can dramatically improve the performance of policy learning algorithms that otherwise yield mediocre performance on their own. Extensive ablations further provide insights into what components of these unsupervised objectives -- e.g., reward prediction, continuous or discrete representations, pretraining or finetuning -- are most important and in which settings.
Value-based methods for reinforcement learning lack generally applicable ways to derive behavior from a value function. Many approaches involve approximate value iteration (e.g., $Q$-learning), and acting greedily with respect to the estimates with an arbitrary degree of entropy to ensure that the state-space is sufficiently explored. Behavior based on explicit greedification assumes that the values reflect those of textit{some} policy, over which the greedy policy will be an improvement. However, value-iteration can produce value functions that do not correspond to textit{any} policy. This is especially relevant in the function-approximation regime, when the true value function cant be perfectly represented. In this work, we explore the use of textit{inverse policy evaluation}, the process of solving for a likely policy given a value function, for deriving behavior from a value function. We provide theoretical and empirical results to show that inverse policy evaluation, combined with an approximate value iteration algorithm, is a feasible method for value-based control.
In membership/subscriber acquisition and retention, we sometimes need to recommend marketing content for multiple pages in sequence. Different from general sequential decision making process, the use cases have a simpler flow where customers per seeing recommended content on each page can only return feedback as moving forward in the process or dropping from it until a termination state. We refer to this type of problems as sequential decision making in linear--flow. We propose to formulate the problem as an MDP with Bandits where Bandits are employed to model the transition probability matrix. At recommendation time, we use Thompson sampling (TS) to sample the transition probabilities and allocate the best series of actions with analytical solution through exact dynamic programming. The way that we formulate the problem allows us to leverage TSs efficiency in balancing exploration and exploitation and Bandits convenience in modeling actions incompatibility. In the simulation study, we observe the proposed MDP with Bandits algorithm outperforms Q-learning with $epsilon$-greedy and decreasing $epsilon$, independent Bandits, and interaction Bandits. We also find the proposed algorithms performance is the most robust to changes in the across-page interdependence strength.
Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which multiple, dependent actions are taken sequentially over time. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of actions and states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Building upon this characterization, we formally state the problem of finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes. In our problem formulation, the counterfactual explanation specifies an alternative sequence of actions differing in at most k actions from the observed sequence that could have led the observed process realization to a better outcome. Then, we introduce a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming to build a counterfactual policy that is guaranteed to always provide the optimal counterfactual explanation on every possible realization of the counterfactual environment dynamics. We validate our algorithm using both synthetic and real data from cognitive behavioral therapy and show that the counterfactual explanations our algorithm finds can provide valuable insights to enhance sequential decision making under uncertainty.
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