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This paper studies the rate of convergence for conditional quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), which is a counterpart of conditional Monte Carlo. We focus on discontinuous integrands defined on the whole of $R^d$, which can be unbounded. Under suitable conditions, we show that conditional QMC not only has the smoothing effect (up to infinitely times differentiable), but also can bring orders of magnitude reduction in integration error compared to plain QMC. Particularly, for some typical problems in options pricing and Greeks estimation, conditional randomized QMC that uses $n$ samples yields a mean error of $O(n^{-1+epsilon})$ for arbitrarily small $epsilon>0$. As a by-product, we find that this rate also applies to randomized QMC integration with all terms of the ANOVA decomposition of the discontinuous integrand, except the one of highest order.
While the Quasi-Monte Carlo method of numerical integration achieves smaller integration error than standard Monte Carlo, its use in particle physics phenomenology has been hindered by the abscence of a reliable way to estimate that error. The standard Monte Carlo error estimator relies on the assumption that the points are generated independently of each other and, therefore, fails to account for the error improvement advertised by the Quasi-Monte Carlo method. We advocate the construction of an estimator of stochastic nature, based on the ensemble of pointsets with a particular discrepancy value. We investigate the consequences of this choice and give some first empirical results on the suggested estimators.
This paper studies randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling for discontinuous integrands having singularities along the boundary of the unit cube $[0,1]^d$. Both discontinuities and singularities are extremely common in the pricing and hedging of financial derivatives and have a tremendous impact on the accuracy of QMC. It was previously known that the root mean square error of randomized QMC is only $o(n^{-1/2})$ for discontinuous functions with singularities. We find that under some mild conditions, randomized QMC yields an expected error of $O(n^{-1/2-1/(4d-2)+epsilon})$ for arbitrarily small $epsilon>0$. Moreover, one can get a better rate if the boundary of discontinuities is parallel to some coordinate axes. As a by-product, we find that the expected error rate attains $O(n^{-1+epsilon})$ if the discontinuities are QMC-friendly, in the sense that all the discontinuity boundaries are parallel to coordinate axes. The results can be used to assess the QMC accuracy for some typical problems from financial engineering.
Reaction networks are often used to model interacting species in fields such as biochemistry and ecology. When the counts of the species are sufficiently large, the dynamics of their concentrations are typically modeled via a system of differential equations. However, when the counts of some species are small, the dynamics of the counts are typically modeled stochastically via a discrete state, continuous time Markov chain. A key quantity of interest for such models is the probability mass function of the process at some fixed time. Since paths of such models are relatively straightforward to simulate, we can estimate the probabilities by constructing an empirical distribution. However, the support of the distribution is often diffuse across a high-dimensional state space, where the dimension is equal to the number of species. Therefore generating an accurate empirical distribution can come with a large computational cost. We present a new Monte Carlo estimator that fundamentally improves on the classical Monte Carlo estimator described above. It also preserves much of classical Monte Carlos simplicity. The idea is basically one of conditional Monte Carlo. Our conditional Monte Carlo estimator has two parameters, and their choice critically affects the performance of the algorithm. Hence, a key contribution of the present work is that we demonstrate how to approximate optimal values for these parameters in an efficient manner. Moreover, we provide a central limit theorem for our estimator, which leads to approximate confidence intervals for its error.
Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is a popular measure for quantifying portfolio risk. Sensitivity analysis of CVaR is very useful in risk management and gradient-based optimization algorithms. In this paper, we study the infinitesimal perturbation analysis estimator for CVaR sensitivity using randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) simulation. We first prove that the RQMC-based estimator is strongly consistent under very mild conditions. Under some technical conditions, RQMC that uses $d$-dimensional points in CVaR sensitivity estimation yields a mean error rate of $O(n^{-1/2-1/(4d-2)+epsilon})$ for arbitrarily small $epsilon>0$. The numerical results show that the RQMC method performs better than the Monte Carlo method for all cases. The gain of plain RQMC deteriorates as the dimension $d$ increases, as predicted by the established theoretical error rate.
We describe and analyze some Monte Carlo methods for manifolds in Euclidean space defined by equality and inequality constraints. First, we give an MCMC sampler for probability distributions defined by un-normalized densities on such manifolds. The sampler uses a specific orthogonal projection to the surface that requires only information about the tangent space to the manifold, obtainable from first derivatives of the constraint functions, hence avoiding the need for curvature information or second derivatives. Second, we use the sampler to develop a multi-stage algorithm to compute integrals over such manifolds. We provide single-run error estimates that avoid the need for multiple independent runs. Computational experiments on various test problems show that the algorithms and error estimates work in practice. The method is applied to compute the entropies of different sticky hard sphere systems. These predict the temperature or interaction energy at which loops of hard sticky spheres become preferable to chains.