No Arabic abstract
Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is a popular measure for quantifying portfolio risk. Sensitivity analysis of CVaR is very useful in risk management and gradient-based optimization algorithms. In this paper, we study the infinitesimal perturbation analysis estimator for CVaR sensitivity using randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) simulation. We first prove that the RQMC-based estimator is strongly consistent under very mild conditions. Under some technical conditions, RQMC that uses $d$-dimensional points in CVaR sensitivity estimation yields a mean error rate of $O(n^{-1/2-1/(4d-2)+epsilon})$ for arbitrarily small $epsilon>0$. The numerical results show that the RQMC method performs better than the Monte Carlo method for all cases. The gain of plain RQMC deteriorates as the dimension $d$ increases, as predicted by the established theoretical error rate.
We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may resort to nested simulation. To reduce the complexity of nested simulation, we present a method that combines multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC). In the outer simulation, we use Monte Carlo to generate financial scenarios. In the inner simulation, we use QMC to estimate the portfolio loss in each scenario. We prove that using QMC can accelerate the convergence rates in both the crude nested simulation and the multilevel nested simulation. Under certain conditions, the complexity of MLMC can be reduced to $O(epsilon^{-2}(log epsilon)^2)$ by incorporating QMC. On the other hand, we find that MLMC encounters catastrophic coupling problem due to the existence of indicator functions. To remedy this, we propose a smoothed MLMC method which uses logistic sigmoid functions to approximate indicator functions. Numerical results show that the optimal complexity $O(epsilon^{-2})$ is almost attained when using QMC methods in both MLMC and smoothed MLMC, even in moderate high dimensions.
Reaction networks are often used to model interacting species in fields such as biochemistry and ecology. When the counts of the species are sufficiently large, the dynamics of their concentrations are typically modeled via a system of differential equations. However, when the counts of some species are small, the dynamics of the counts are typically modeled stochastically via a discrete state, continuous time Markov chain. A key quantity of interest for such models is the probability mass function of the process at some fixed time. Since paths of such models are relatively straightforward to simulate, we can estimate the probabilities by constructing an empirical distribution. However, the support of the distribution is often diffuse across a high-dimensional state space, where the dimension is equal to the number of species. Therefore generating an accurate empirical distribution can come with a large computational cost. We present a new Monte Carlo estimator that fundamentally improves on the classical Monte Carlo estimator described above. It also preserves much of classical Monte Carlos simplicity. The idea is basically one of conditional Monte Carlo. Our conditional Monte Carlo estimator has two parameters, and their choice critically affects the performance of the algorithm. Hence, a key contribution of the present work is that we demonstrate how to approximate optimal values for these parameters in an efficient manner. Moreover, we provide a central limit theorem for our estimator, which leads to approximate confidence intervals for its error.
Quasi-Monte Carlo methods are designed for integrands of bounded variation, and this excludes singular integrands. Several methods are known for integrands that become singular on the boundary of the unit cube $[0,1]^d$ or at isolated possibly unknown points within $[0,1]^d$. Here we consider functions on the square $[0,1]^2$ that may become singular as the point approaches the diagonal line $x_1=x_2$, and we study three quadrature methods. The first method splits the square into two triangles separated by a region around the line of singularity, and applies recently developed triangle QMC rules to the two triangular parts. For functions with a singularity `no worse than $|x_1-x_2|^{-A}$ for $0<A<1$ that method yields an error of $O( (log(n)/n)^{(1-A)/2})$. We also consider methods extending the integrand into a region containing the singularity and show that method will not improve up on using two triangles. Finally, we consider transforming the integrand to have a more QMC-friendly singularity along the boundary of the square. This then leads to error rates of $O(n^{-1+epsilon+A})$ when combined with some corner-avoiding Halton points or with randomized QMC, but it requires some stronger assumptions on the original singular integrand.
This paper develops a safety analysis method for stochastic systems that is sensitive to the possibility and severity of rare harmful outcomes. We define risk-sensitive safe sets as sub-level sets of the solution to a non-standard optimal control problem, where a random maximum cost is assessed using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) functional. The solution to the control problem represents the maximum extent of constraint violation of the state trajectory, averaged over the $alphacdot 100$% worst cases, where $alpha in (0,1]$. This problem is well-motivated but difficult to solve in a tractable fashion because temporal decompositions for risk functionals generally depend on the history of the systems behavior. Our primary theoretical contribution is to derive under-approximations to risk-sensitive safe sets, which are computationally tractable. Our method provides a novel, theoretically guaranteed, parameter-dependent upper bound to the CVaR of a maximum cost without the need to augment the state space. For a fixed parameter value, the solution to only one Markov decision process problem is required to obtain the under-approximations for any family of risk-sensitivity levels. In addition, we propose a second definition for risk-sensitive safe sets and provide a tractable method for their estimation without using a parameter-dependent upper bound. The second definition is expressed in terms of a new coherent risk functional, which is inspired by CVaR. We demonstrate our primary theoretical contribution using numerical examples of a thermostatically controlled load system and a stormwater system.
This paper studies the rate of convergence for conditional quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), which is a counterpart of conditional Monte Carlo. We focus on discontinuous integrands defined on the whole of $R^d$, which can be unbounded. Under suitable conditions, we show that conditional QMC not only has the smoothing effect (up to infinitely times differentiable), but also can bring orders of magnitude reduction in integration error compared to plain QMC. Particularly, for some typical problems in options pricing and Greeks estimation, conditional randomized QMC that uses $n$ samples yields a mean error of $O(n^{-1+epsilon})$ for arbitrarily small $epsilon>0$. As a by-product, we find that this rate also applies to randomized QMC integration with all terms of the ANOVA decomposition of the discontinuous integrand, except the one of highest order.