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Register a new userNear-Sun and 1 AU magnetic field of coronal mass ejections: A parametric study
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Aims. The magnetic field of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) determines their structure, evolution, and energetics, as well as their geoeffectiveness. However, we currently lack routine diagnostics of the near-Sun CME magnetic field, which is crucial for determining the subsequent evolution of CMEs. Methods. We recently presented a method to infer the near-Sun magnetic field magnitude of CMEs and then extrapolate it to 1 AU. This method uses relatively easy to deduce observational estimates of the magnetic helicity in CME-source regions along with geometrical CME fits enabled by coronagraph observations. We hereby perform a parametric study of this method aiming to assess its robustness. We use statistics of active region (AR) helicities and CME geometrical parameters to determine a matrix of plausible near-Sun CME magnetic field magnitudes. In addition, we extrapolate this matrix to 1 AU and determine the anticipated range of CME magnetic fields at 1 AU representing the radial falloff of the magnetic field in the CME out to interplanetary (IP) space by a power law with index aB. Results. The resulting distribution of the near-Sun (at 10 Rs ) CME magnetic fields varies in the range [0.004, 0.02] G, comparable to, or higher than, a few existing observational inferences of the magnetic field in the quiescent corona at the same distance. We also find that a theoretically and observationally motivated range exists around aB = -1.6 +-0.2, thereby leading to a ballpark agreement between our estimates and observationally inferred field magnitudes of magnetic clouds (MCs) at L1. Conclusions. In a statistical sense, our method provides results that are consistent with observations.
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Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) often consist of a shock wave, sheath region, and ejecta region. The ejecta regions are divided into two broad classes: magnetic clouds (MC) that exhibit the characteristics of magnetic flux ropes and non-magnetic clouds (NMC) that do not. As CMEs result from eruption of magnetic flux ropes, it is important to answer why NMCs do not have the flux rope features. One claims that NMCs lose their original flux rope features due to the interactions between ICMEs or ICMEs and other large scale structures during their transit in the heliosphere. The other attributes this phenomenon to the geometric selection effect, i.e., when an ICME has its nose (flank, including leg and non-leg flanks) pass through the observing spacecraft, the MC (NMC) features will be detected along the spacecraft trajectory within the ejecta. In this Letter, we examine which explanation is more reasonable through the geometric properties of ICMEs. If the selection effect leads to different ejecta types, MCs should have narrower sheath region compared to NMCs from the statistical point of view, which is confirmed by our statistics. Besides, we find that NMCs have the similar size in solar cycles 23 and 24, and NMCs are smaller than MCs in cycle 23 but larger than MCs in cycle 24. This suggests that most NMCs have their leg flank pass through the spacecraft. Our geometric analyses support that all ICMEs should have a magnetic flux rope structure near 1 AU.
We analyse in this work the propagation and geoeffectiveness of four successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted from the Sun during 21--23 May 2013 and that were detected in interplanetary space by the Wind and/or STEREO-A spacecraft. All these CMEs featured critical aspects for understanding so-called problem space weather storms at Earth. In the first three events a limb CMEs resulted in moderately geoeffective in-situ structures at their target location in terms of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index (either measured or estimated). The fourth CME, which also caused a moderate geomagnetic response, erupted from close to the disc centre as seen from Earth, but it was not visible in coronagraph images from the spacecraft along the Sun--Earth line and appeared narrow and faint from off-angle viewpoints. Making the correct connection between CMEs at the Sun and their in-situ counterparts is often difficult for problem storms. We investigate these four CMEs using multiwavelength and multipoint remote-sensing observations (extreme ultraviolet, white light, and radio), aided by 3D heliospheric modelling, in order to follow their propagation in the corona and in interplanetary space and to assess their impact at 1 AU. Finally, we emphasise the difficulties in forecasting moderate space weather effects provoked by problematic and ambiguous events and the importance of multispacecraft data for observing and modelling problem storms.
Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to $2700 : km : s^{-1}$). We track the CMEs to $34.9 pm 7.1$ degrees elongation from the Sun with J-maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of $-26.4 pm 15.3$ hours. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (Fixed-$Phi$, Harmonic Mean, Self-Similar Expansion), and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is $8.1 pm 6.3$ hours ($rms$ value of 10.9h). Speeds are consistent to within $284 pm 288 : km : s^{-1}$. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to $6.1 pm 5.0$ hours ($rms$ value of 7.9h), and for the speeds to $53 pm 50 : km : s^{-1}$. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.
With the global view and high-cadence observations from SDO/AIA and STEREO, many spatially separated solar eruptive events appear to be coupled. However, the mechanisms for sympathetic events are still largely unknown. In this study, we investigate the impact of an erupting flux rope on surrounding solar structures through large-scale magnetic coupling. We build a realistic environment of the solar corona on 2011 February 15 using a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model and initiate coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in active region (AR) 11158 by inserting Gibson-Low analytical flux ropes. We show that a CMEs impact on the surrounding structures depends not only on the magnetic strength of these structures and their distance to the source region, but also on the interaction between the CME with the large-scale magnetic field. Within the CME expansion domain where the flux rope field directly interacts with the solar structures, expansion-induced reconnection often modifies the overlying field, thereby increasing the decay index. This effect may provide a primary coupling mechanism underlying the sympathetic eruptions. The magnitude of the impact is found to depend on the orientation of the erupting flux rope, with the largest impacts occurring when the flux rope is favorably oriented for reconnecting with the surrounding regions. Outside the CME expansion domain, the influence of the CME is mainly through field line compression or post-eruption relaxation. Based on our numerical experiments, we discuss a way to quantify the eruption impact, which could be useful for forecasting purposes.
A clear understanding of the nature of the pre-eruptive magnetic field configurations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is required for understanding and eventually predicting solar eruptions. Only two, but seemingly disparate, magnetic configurations are considered viable; namely, sheared magnetic arcades (SMA) and magnetic flux ropes (MFR). They can form via three physical mechanisms (flux emergence, flux cancellation, helicity condensation) . Whether the CME culprit is an SMA or an MFR, however, has been strongly debated for thirty years. We formed an International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team to address and resolve this issue and report the outcome here. We review the status of the field across modeling and observations, identify the open and closed issues, compile lists of SMA and MFR observables to be tested against observations and outline research activities to close the gaps in our current understanding. We propose that the combination of multi-viewpoint multi-thermal coronal observations and multi-height vector magnetic field measurements is the optimal approach for resolving the issue conclusively. We demonstrate the approach using MHD simulations and synthetic coronal images. Our key conclusion is that the differentiation of pre-eruptive configurations in terms of SMAs and MFRs seems artificial. Both observations and modeling can be made consistent if the pre-eruptive configuration exists in a hybrid state that is continuously evolving from an SMA to an MFR. Thus, the dominant nature of a given configuration will largely depend on its evolutionary stage (SMA-like early-on, MFR-like near the eruption).
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