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Register a new userFalse positive probabilties for all Kepler Objects of Interest: 1284 newly validated planets and 428 likely false positives
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We present astrophysical false positive probability calculations for every Kepler Object of Interest (KOI)---the first large-scale demonstration of a fully automated transiting planet validation procedure. Out of 7056 KOIs, we determine that 1935 have probabilities <1% to be astrophysical false positives, and thus may be considered validated planets. 1284 of these have not yet been validated or confirmed by other methods. In addition, we identify 428 KOIs likely to be false positives that have not yet been identified as such, though some of these may be a result of unidentified transit timing variations. A side product of these calculations is full stellar property posterior samplings for every host star, modeled as single, binary, and triple systems. These calculations use vespa, a publicly available Python package able to be easily applied to any transiting exoplanet candidate.
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The Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) project has been conducting a photometric survey for transiting planets orbiting bright stars for over ten years. The KELT images have a pixel scale of ~23/pixel---very similar to that of NASAs Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)---as well as a large point spread function, and the KELT reduction pipeline uses a weighted photometric aperture with radius 3. At this angular scale, multiple stars are typically blended in the photometric apertures. In order to identify false positives and confirm transiting exoplanets, we have assembled a follow-up network (KELT-FUN) to conduct imaging with higher spatial resolution, cadence, and photometric precision than the KELT telescopes, as well as spectroscopic observations of the candidate host stars. The KELT-FUN team has followed-up over 1,600 planet candidates since 2011, resulting in more than 20 planet discoveries. Excluding ~450 false alarms of non-astrophysical origin (i.e., instrumental noise or systematics), we present an all-sky catalog of the 1,128 bright stars (6<V<10) that show transit-like features in the KELT light curves, but which were subsequently determined to be astrophysical false positives (FPs) after photometric and/or spectroscopic follow-up observations. The KELT-FUN team continues to pursue KELT and other planet candidates and will eventually follow up certain classes of TESS candidates. The KELT FP catalog will help minimize the duplication of follow-up observations by current and future transit surveys such as TESS.
The Kepler Mission was launched on March 6, 2009 to perform a photometric survey of more than 100,000 dwarf stars to search for Earth-size planets with the transit technique. The reliability of the resulting planetary candidate list relies on the ability to identify and remove false positives. Major sources of astrophysical false positives are planetary transits and stellar eclipses on background stars. We describe several new techniques for the identification of background transit sources that are separated from their target stars, indicating an astrophysical false positive. These techniques use only Kepler photometric data. We describe the concepts and construction of these techniques in detail as well as their performance and relative merits.
Ten days of commissioning data (Quarter 0) and thirty-three days of science data (Quarter 1) yield instrumental flux timeseries of ~150,000 stars that were combed for transit events, termed Threshold Crossing Events (TCE), each having a total detection statistic above 7.1-sigma. TCE light curves are modeled as star+planet systems. Those returning a companion radius smaller than 2R_J are assigned a KOI (Kepler Object of Interest) number. The raw flux, pixel flux, and flux-weighted centroids of every KOI are scrutinized to assess the likelihood of being an astrophysical false-positive versus the likelihood of a being a planetary companion. This vetting using Kepler data is referred to as data validation. Herein, we describe the data validation metrics and graphics used to identify viable planet candidates amongst the KOIs. Light curve modeling tests for a) the difference in depth of the odd- versus even-numbered transits, b) evidence of ellipsoidal variations, and c) evidence of a secondary eclipse event at phase=0.5. Flux-weighted centroids are used to test for signals correlated with transit events with a magnitude and direction indicative of a background eclipsing binary. Centroid timeseries are complimented by analysis of images taken in-transit versus out-of-transit, the difference often revealing the pixel contributing the most to the flux change during transit. Examples are shown to illustrate each test. Candidates passing data validation are submitted to ground-based observers for further false-positive elimination or confirmation/characterization.
Kepler Missions single-band photometry suffers from astrophysical false positives, the most common of background eclipsing binaries (BEBs) and companion transiting planets (CTPs). Multi-color photometry can reveal the color-dependent depth feature of false positives and thus exclude them. In this work, we aim to estimate the fraction of false positives that are unable to be classified by Kepler alone but can be identified with their color-dependent depth feature if a reference band (z, Ks and TESS) were adopted in follow-up observation. We build up physics-based blend models to simulate multi-band signals of false positives. Nearly 65-95% of the BEBs and more than 80% of the CTPs that host a Jupiter-size planet will show detectable depth variations if the reference band can achieve a Kepler-like precision. Ks band is most effective in eliminating BEBs exhibiting any depth sizes, while z and TESS band prefer to identify giant candidates and their identification rates are more sensitive to photometric precision. Provided the radius distribution of planets transiting the secondary star in binary systems, we derive formalism to calculate the overall identification rate for CTPs. By comparing the likelihood distribution of the double-band depth ratio for BEB and planet models, we calculate the false positive probability (FPP) for typical Kepler candidates. Additionally, we show that the FPP calculation helps distinguish the planet candidates host star in an unresolved binary system. The analysis framework of this paper can be easily adapted to predict the multi-color photometry yield for other transit surveys, especially for TESS.
The four-planet system around GJ 581 has received attention because it has been claimed that there are possibly two additional low-mass companions as well - one of them being a planet in the middle of the stellar habitable zone. We re-analyse the available HARPS and HIRES Doppler data in an attempt to determine the false positive rate of our Bayesian data analysis techniques and to count the number of Keplerian signals in the GJ 581 data. We apply the common Lomb-Scargle periodograms and posterior sampling techniques in the Bayesian framework to estimate the number of signals in the radial velocities. We also analyse the HARPS velocities sequentially after each full observing period to compare the sensitivities and false positive rates of the two signal detection techniques. By relaxing the assumption that the radial velocity noise is white, we also demonstrate the consequences that noise correlations have on the obtained results and the significances of the signals. According to our analyses, the number of Keplerian signals favoured by the publicly available HARPS and HIRES radial velocity data of GJ 581 is four. This result relies on the sensitivity of the Bayesian statistical analysis techniques but also depends on the assumed noise model. We also show that the radial velocity noise is actually not white and that this feature has to be accounted for when analysing radial velocities in a search for low-amplitude signals corresponding to low-mass planets. ...
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