No Arabic abstract
In this paper, we show that spatial correlation of renewable energy outputs greatly influences the robustness of power grids. First, we propose a new index for the spatial correlation among renewable energy outputs. We find that the spatial correlation of renewable energy outputs in a short time-scale is as weak as that caused by independent random variables and that in a long time-scale is as strong as that under perfect synchronization. Then, by employing the topology of the power grid in eastern Japan, we analyze the robustness of the power grid with spatial correlation of renewable energy outputs. The analysis is performed by using a realistic differential-algebraic equations model and the result shows that the spatial correlation of the energy resources strongly degrades the robustness of the power grid. Our result suggests that the spatial correlation of the renewable energy outputs should be taken into account when estimating the stability of power grids.
Power grid frequency control is a demanding task requiring expensive idle power plants to adapt the supply to the fluctuating demand. An alternative approach is controlling the demand side in such a way that certain appliances modify their operation to adapt to the power availability. This is specially important to achieve a high penetration of renewable energy sources. A number of methods to manage the demand side have been proposed. In this work we focus on dynamic demand control (DDC), where smart appliances can delay their switchings depending on the frequency of the system. We introduce a simple model to study the effects of DDC on the frequency of the power grid. The model includes the power plant equations, a stochastic model for the demand that reproduces, adjusting a single parameter, the statistical properties of frequency fluctuations measured experimentally, and a generic DDC protocol. We find that DDC can reduce small and medium size fluctuations but it can also increase the probability of observing large frequency peaks due to the necessity of recovering pending task. We also conclude that a deployment of DDC around 30-40% already allows a significant reduction of the fluctuations while keeping the number of pending tasks low.
We report on the existing connection between power-law distributions and allometries. As it was first reported in [PLoS ONE 7, e40393 (2012)] for the relationship between homicides and population, when these urban indicators present asymptotic power-law distributions, they can also display specific allometries among themselves. Here, we present an extensive characterization of this connection when considering all possible pairs of relationships from twelve urban indicators of Brazilian cities (such as child labor, illiteracy, income, sanitation and unemployment). Our analysis reveals that all our urban indicators are asymptotically distributed as power laws and that the proposed connection also holds for our data when the allometric relationship displays enough correlations. We have also found that not all allometric relationships are independent and that they can be understood as a consequence of the allometric relationship between the urban indicator and the population size. We further show that the residuals fluctuations surrounding the allometries are characterized by an almost constant variance and log-normal distributions.
To provide a comprehensive view for dynamics of and on many real-world temporal networks, we investigate the interplay of temporal connectivity patterns and spreading phenomena, in terms of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model on the modified activity-driven temporal network (ADTN) with memory. In particular, we focus on how the epidemic threshold of the SIR model is affected by the heterogeneity of nodal activities and the memory strength in temporal and static regimes, respectively. While strong ties (memory) between nodes inhibit the spread of epidemic to be localized, the heterogeneity of nodal activities enhances it to be globalized initially. Since the epidemic threshold of the SIR model is very sensitive to the degree distribution of nodes in static networks, we test the SIR model on the modified ADTNs with the possible set of the activity exponents and the memory exponents that generates the same degree distributions in temporal networks. We also discuss the role of spatiotemporal scaling properties of the largest cluster and the maximum degree in the epidemic threshold. It is observed that the presence of highly active nodes enables to trigger the initial spread of epidemic in a short period of time, but it also limits its final spread to the entire network. This implies that there is the trade-off between the spreading time of epidemic and its outbreak size. Finally, we suggest the phase diagram of the SIR model on ADTNs and the optimal condition for the spread of epidemic under the circumstances.
We consider inventions as novel combinations of existing technological capabilities. Patent data allow us to explicitly identify such combinatorial processes in invention activities. Unconsidered in the previous research, not every new combination is novel to the same extent. Some combinations are naturally anticipated based on patent activities in the past or mere random choices, and some appear to deviate exceptionally from existing invention pathways. We calculate a relative likelihood that each pair of classification codes is put together at random, and a deviation from the empirical observation so as to assess the overall novelty (or conventionality) that the patent brings forth at each year. An invention is considered as unconventional if a pair of codes therein is unlikely to be used together given the statistics in the past. Temporal evolution of the distribution indicates that the patenting activities become more conventional with occasional cross-over combinations. Our analyses show that patents introducing novelty on top of the conventional units would receive higher citations, and hence have higher impact.
In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes and links fail. We derive higher moments of the fractions of active nodes and active links, $f_n(t)$ and $f_{ell}(t)$, and define two estimators to quantify the level of risk in a network. We find hysteresis in the correlations of $f_n(t)$ due to failures at the node level, and derive conditional probabilities for phase-flipping in networks. We apply our model to economic and traffic networks.