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Register a new userModels of Markov processes with a random transition mechanism
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The paper deals with a certain class of random evolutions. We develop a construction that yields an invariant measure for a continuous-time Markov process with random transitions. The approach is based on a particular way of constructing the combined process, where the generator is defined as a sum of two terms: one responsible for the evolution of the environment and the second representing generators of processes with a given state of environment. (The two operators are not assumed to commute.) The presentation includes fragments of a general theory and pays a particular attention to several types of examples: (1) a queueing system with a random change of parameters (including a Jackson network and, as a special case: a single-server queue with a diffusive behavior of arrival and service rates), (2) a simple-exclusion model in presence of a special `heavy` particle, (3) a diffusion with drift-switching, and (4) a diffusion with a randomly diffusion-type varying diffusion coefficient (including a modification of the Heston random volatility model).
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We construct a family of genealogy-valued Markov processes that are induced by a continuous-time Markov population process. We derive exact expressions for the likelihood of a given genealogy conditional on the history of the underlying population process. These lead to a version of the nonlinear filtering equation, which can be used to design efficient Monte Carlo inference algorithms. Existing full-information approaches for phylodynamic inference are special cases of the theory.
This paper introduces the concept of random context representations for the transition probabilities of a finite-alphabet stochastic process. Processes with these representations generalize context tree processes (a.k.a. variable length Markov chains), and are proven to coincide with processes whose transition probabilities are almost surely continuous functions of the (infinite) past. This is similar to a classical result by Kalikow about continuous transition probabilities. Existence and uniqueness of a minimal random context representation are proven, and an estimator of the transition probabilities based on this representation is shown to have very good pastwise adaptativity properties. In particular, it achieves minimax performance, up to logarithmic factors, for binary renewal processes with bounded $2+gamma$ moments.
Our purpose is to study a particular class of optimal stopping problems for Markov processes. We justify the value function convexity and we deduce that there exists a boundary function such that the smallest optimal stopping time is the first time when the Markov process passes over the boundary depending on time. Moreover, we propose a method to find the optimal boundary function.
In this paper, we derive a simple drift condition for the stability of a class of two-dimensional Markov processes, for which one of the coordinates (also referred to as the {em phase} for convenience) has a well understood behaviour dependent on the other coordinate (also referred as {em level}). The first (phase) components transitions may depend on the second component and are only assumed to be eventually independent. The second (level) component has partially bounded jumps and it is assumed to have a negative drift given that the first one is in its stationary distribution. The results presented in this work can be applied to processes of the QBD (quasi-birth-and-death) type on the quarter- and on the half-plane, where the phase and level are interdependent. Furthermore, they provide an off-the-shelf technique to tackle stability issues for a class of two-dimensional Markov processes. These results set the stepping stones towards closing the existing gap in the literature of deriving easily verifiable conditions/criteria for two-dimensional processes with unbounded jumps and interdependence between the two components.
Using time-reversal, we introduce a stochastic integral for zero-energy additive functionals of symmetric Markov processes, extending earlier work of S. Nakao. Various properties of such stochastic integrals are discussed and an It^{o} formula for Dirichlet processes is obtained.
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