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Register a new userEnsemble modeling of CMEs using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model
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Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3.
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The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $gamma$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is compared with previous DB
The adopted WSA model embedded in EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) is compared to EUV observations. According to the standard paradigm coronal holes are sources of open flux thus we use remote sensing EUV observations and textsc{catch} (Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes) to extract CH areas and compare them to the open flux areas modelled by EUHFORIA. From the adopted WSA model we employ only the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model for the inner corona and the Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) model for the outer (PFSS+SCS). The height, $R_{rm ss}$, of the outer boundary of the PFSS, known as the source surface, and the height, $R_{rm i}$, of the inner boundary of the SCS are important parameters affecting the modelled CH areas. We investigate the impact the two model parameters can have in the modelled results. We vary $R_{rm ss}$ within the interval [1.4, 3.2]$R_{rm odot}$ with a step of 0.1$R_{rm odot}$, and $R_{rm i}$ within the interval [1.3, 2.8]$R_{rm odot}$ with the same step, and the condition that $R_{rm i}<R_{rm ss}$. This way we have a set of 184 initial parameters to the model and we assess the model results for all these possible height pairs. We conclude that the default heights used so far fail in modelling accurately CH areas and lower heights need to be considered.
In this study, we focus on improving EUHFORIA (European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset), a recently developed 3D MHD space weather prediction tool. EUHFORIA consists of two parts, covering two spatial domains; the solar corona and the inner heliosphere. For the first part, the semi-empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used by default, which employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to provide the necessary solar wind plasma and magnetic conditions above the solar surface, at 0.1 AU, that serve as boundary conditions for the inner heliospheric part. Herein, we present the first results of the implementation of an alternative coronal model in EUHFORIA, the so-called MULTI-VP model. We compared the output of the default coronal model with the output from MULTI-VP at the inner boundary of the heliospheric domain of EUHFORIA in order to understand differences between the two models, before they propagate to Earth. We also compared the performance of WSA+EUHFORIA-heliosphere and MULTI-VP+EUHFORIA-heliosphere against in situ observations at Earth. In the frame of this study, we considered two different high-speed stream cases, one during a period of low solar activity and one during a period of high solar activity. We also employed two different magnetograms, i.e., GONG and WSO. Our results show that the choice of both the coronal model and the magnetogram play an important role on the accuracy of the solar wind prediction. However, it is not clear which component plays the most important role for the modeled results obtained at Earth. A statistical analysis with an appropriate number of simulations is needed to confirm our findings.
The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements at STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.
Earlier studies on Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), using remote sensing and in situ observations, have attempted to determine some of the internal properties of CMEs, which were limited to a certain position or a certain time. For understanding the evolution of the internal thermodynamic state of CMEs during their heliospheric propagation, we improve the self-similar flux rope internal state (FRIS) model, which is constrained by measured propagation and expansion speed profiles of a CME. We implement the model to a CME erupted on 2008 December 12 and probe the internal state of the CME. It is found that the polytropic index of the CME plasma decreased continuously from 1.8 to 1.35 as the CME moved away from the Sun, implying that the CME released heat before it reached adiabatic state and then absorbed heat. We further estimate the entropy changing and heating rate of the CME. We also find that the thermal force inside the CME is the internal driver of CME expansion while Lorentz force prevented the CME from expanding. It is noted that centrifugal force due to poloidal motion decreased with the fastest rate and Lorentz force decreased slightly faster than thermal pressure force as CME moved away from the Sun. We also discuss the limitations of the model and approximations made in the study.
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