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Register a new userImplementing the MULTI-VP coronal model in EUHFORIA: test case results and comparisons with the WSA coronal model
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In this study, we focus on improving EUHFORIA (European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset), a recently developed 3D MHD space weather prediction tool. EUHFORIA consists of two parts, covering two spatial domains; the solar corona and the inner heliosphere. For the first part, the semi-empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used by default, which employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to provide the necessary solar wind plasma and magnetic conditions above the solar surface, at 0.1 AU, that serve as boundary conditions for the inner heliospheric part. Herein, we present the first results of the implementation of an alternative coronal model in EUHFORIA, the so-called MULTI-VP model. We compared the output of the default coronal model with the output from MULTI-VP at the inner boundary of the heliospheric domain of EUHFORIA in order to understand differences between the two models, before they propagate to Earth. We also compared the performance of WSA+EUHFORIA-heliosphere and MULTI-VP+EUHFORIA-heliosphere against in situ observations at Earth. In the frame of this study, we considered two different high-speed stream cases, one during a period of low solar activity and one during a period of high solar activity. We also employed two different magnetograms, i.e., GONG and WSO. Our results show that the choice of both the coronal model and the magnetogram play an important role on the accuracy of the solar wind prediction. However, it is not clear which component plays the most important role for the modeled results obtained at Earth. A statistical analysis with an appropriate number of simulations is needed to confirm our findings.
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The adopted WSA model embedded in EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) is compared to EUV observations. According to the standard paradigm coronal holes are sources of open flux thus we use remote sensing EUV observations and textsc{catch} (Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes) to extract CH areas and compare them to the open flux areas modelled by EUHFORIA. From the adopted WSA model we employ only the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model for the inner corona and the Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) model for the outer (PFSS+SCS). The height, $R_{rm ss}$, of the outer boundary of the PFSS, known as the source surface, and the height, $R_{rm i}$, of the inner boundary of the SCS are important parameters affecting the modelled CH areas. We investigate the impact the two model parameters can have in the modelled results. We vary $R_{rm ss}$ within the interval [1.4, 3.2]$R_{rm odot}$ with a step of 0.1$R_{rm odot}$, and $R_{rm i}$ within the interval [1.3, 2.8]$R_{rm odot}$ with the same step, and the condition that $R_{rm i}<R_{rm ss}$. This way we have a set of 184 initial parameters to the model and we assess the model results for all these possible height pairs. We conclude that the default heights used so far fail in modelling accurately CH areas and lower heights need to be considered.
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions from the Sun into interplanetary space. Despite being major space weather drivers, our knowledge of the CME properties in the inner heliosphere remains constrained by the scarcity of observations at distances other than 1 au. Furthermore, most CMEs are observed in situ by single spacecraft, requiring numerical models to complement the sparse observations available. We aim to assess the ability of the linear force-free spheromak CME model in EUHFORIA to describe the radial evolution of interplanetary CMEs, yielding new context for observational studies. We model one well-studied CME, and investigate its radial evolution by placing virtual spacecraft along the Sun-Earth line in the simulation domain. To directly compare observational and modelling results, we characterise the interplanetary CME signatures between 0.2 and 1.9 au from modelled time series, exploiting techniques traditionally employed to analyse real in situ data. Results show that the modelled radial evolution of the mean solar wind and CME values is consistent with observational and theoretical expectations. The CME expands as a consequence of the decaying pressure in the surrounding wind: the expansion is rapid within 0.4 au, and moderate at larger distances. The early rapid expansion could not explain the overestimated CME radial size in our simulation, suggesting this is an intrinsic limitation of the spheromak geometry used. The magnetic field profile indicates a relaxation of the CME during propagation, while ageing is most probably not a substantial source of magnetic asymmetry beyond 0.4 au. We also report a CME wake that is significantly shorter than suggested by observations. Overall, EUHFORIA provides a consistent description of the radial evolution of solar wind and CMEs; nevertheless, improvements are required to better reproduce the CME radial extension.
An analytical and numerical treatment is given of a constrained version of the tectonics model developed by Priest, Heyvaerts, & Title [2002]. We begin with an initial uniform magnetic field ${bf B} = B_0 hat{bf z}$ that is line-tied at the surfaces $z = 0$ and $z = L$. This initial configuration is twisted by photospheric footpoint motion that is assumed to depend on only one coordinate ($x$) transverse to the initial magnetic field. The geometric constraints imposed by our assumption precludes the occurrence of reconnection and secondary instabilities, but enables us to follow for long times the dissipation of energy due to the effects of resistivity and viscosity. In this limit, we demonstrate that when the coherence time of random photospheric footpoint motion is much smaller by several orders of magnitude compared with the resistive diffusion time, the heating due to Ohmic and viscous dissipation becomes independent of the resistivity of the plasma. Furthermore, we obtain scaling relations that suggest that even if reconnection and/or secondary instabilities were to limit the build-up of magnetic energy in such a model, the overall heating rate will still be independent of the resistivity.
This paper is a follow up of the article where Lemaire and Stegen (2016) introduced their DYN method to calculate coronal temperature profiles from given radial distributions of the coronal and solar wind (SW) electron densities. Several such temperature profiles are calculated and presented corresponding to a set of given empirical density models derived from eclipse observations and in-situ measurements of the electron density and bulk velocity at 1 AU. The DYN temperature profiles obtained for the equatorial and polar regions of the corona challenge the results deduced since 1958 from singular hydrodynamical models of the SW. In these models - where the expansion velocity transits through a singular saddle point - the maximum coronal temperature is predicted to be located at the base of the corona, while in all DYN models the altitude of the maximum temperature is found at significantly higher altitudes in the mid-corona. Furthermore, the maximum of the DYN-estimated temperatures is found at much higher altitudes over the polar regions and coronal holes, than over the equator. However, at low altitudes, in the inner corona, the DYN temperatures are always smaller at high latitudes, than at low equatorial latitudes. This appears well in agreement with existing coronal hole observations. These findings have serious implications on the open questions: what is the actual source of the coronal heating, and where is the maximum energy deposited within the solar corona?
Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3.
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