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Register a new userUsing the Maximum X-ray Flux Ratio and X-ray Background to Predict Solar Flare Class
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Lisa M. Winter
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We present the discovery of a relationship between the maximum ratio of the flare flux (namely, 0.5-4 Ang to the 1-8 Ang flux) and non-flare background (namely, the 1-8 Ang background flux), which clearly separates flares into classes by peak flux level. We established this relationship based on an analysis of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray observations of ~ 50,000 X, M, C, and B flares derived from the NOAA/SWPC flares catalog. Employing a combination of machine learning techniques (K-nearest neighbors and nearest-centroid algorithms) we show a separation of the observed parameters for the different peak flaring energies. This analysis is validated by successfully predicting the flare classes for 100% of the X-class flares, 76% of the M-class flares, 80% of the C-class flares and 81% of the B-class flares for solar cycle 24, based on the training of the parametric extracts for solar flares in cycles 22-23.
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The GOES X1.5 class flare that occurred on August 30,2002 at 1327:30 UT is one of the few events detected so far at submillimeter wavelengths. We present a detailed analysis of this flare combining radio observations from 1.5 to 212 GHz (an upper limit of the flux is also provided at 405 GHz) and X-ray. Although the observations of radio emission up to 212 GHz indicates that relativistic electrons with energies of a few MeV were accelerated, no significant hard X-ray emission was detected by RHESSI above ~ 250 keV. Images at 12--20 and 50--100 keV reveal a very compact, but resolved, source of about ~ 10 x 10. EUV TRACE images show a multi-kernel structure suggesting a complex (multipolar) magnetic topology. During the peak time the radio spectrum shows an extended flatness from ~ 7 to 35 GHz. Modeling the optically thin part of the radio spectrum as gyrosynchrotron emission we obtained the electron spectrum (spectral index delta, instantaneous number of emitting electrons). It is shown that in order to keep the expected X-ray emission from the same emitting electrons below the RHESSI background at 250 keV, a magnetic field above 500 G is necessary. On the other hand, the electron spectrum deduced from radio observations >= 50 GHz is harder than that deduced from ~ 70 - 250 keV X-ray data, meaning that there must exist a breaking energy around a few hundred keV. During the decay of the impulsive phase, a hardening of the X-ray spectrum is observed which is interpreted as a hardening of the electron distribution spectrum produced by the diffusion due to Coulomb collisions of the trapped electrons in a medium with an electron density of n_e ~ 3E10 - 5E10 cm-3.
We compare the characteristics of flare-accelerated energetic electrons at the Sun with those injected into interplanetary space. We have identified 17 energetic electron events well-observed with the SEPT instrument aboard STEREO which show a clear association with a hard X-ray (HXR) flare observed with the RHESSI spacecraft. We compare the spectral indices of the RHESSI HXR spectra with those of the interplanetary electrons. Because of the frequent double-power-law shape of the in situ electron spectra, we paid special attention to the choice of the spectral index used for comparison. The time difference between the electron onsets and the associated type III and microwave bursts suggests that the electron events are detected at 1 AU with apparent delays ranging from 9 to 41 minutes. While the parent solar activity is clearly impulsive, also showing a high correlation with extreme ultraviolet jets, most of the studied events occur in temporal coincidence with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In spite of the observed onset delays and presence of CMEs in the low corona, we find a significant correlation of about 0.8 between the spectral indices of the HXR flare and the in situ electrons. The correlations increase if only events with significant anisotropy are considered. This suggests that transport effects can alter the injected spectra leading to a strongly reduced imprint of the flare acceleration. We conclude that interplanetary transport effects must be taken into account when inferring the initial acceleration of solar energetic electron events. Although our results suggest a clear imprint of flare acceleration for the analyzed event sample, a secondary acceleration might be present which could account for the observed delays. However, the limited and variable pitch-angle coverage of SEPT could also be the reason for the observed delays.
In this study we compared the temporal and periodic variations of the Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the number of different class (C, M, and X) solar X-Ray flares for the last two solar cycles (Cycle 23 and 24). To obtain the correlation between the MCMESI and solar flare numbers the cross correlation analysis was applied to monthly data sets. Also to investigate the periodic behavior of all data sets the Multi Taper Method (MTM) and the Morlet wavelet analysis method were performed with daily data from 2009 to 2018. To evaluate our wavelet analysis Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC) methods were performed. Causal relationships between datasets were further examined by Convergence Cross Mapping (CCM) method. In results of our analysis we found followings; 1) The C class X-Ray flare numbers increased about 16 % during the solar cycle 24 compared to cycle 23, while all other data sets decreased; the MCMESI decreased about 16 % and the number of M and X class flares decreased about 32 %. 2) All the X-Ray solar flare classes show remarkable positive correlation with the MCMESI. While the correlation between the MCMESI and C class flares comes from the general solar cycle trend, it mainly results from the fluctuations in the data in case of the X class flares. 3) In general, all class flare numbers and the MCMESI show similar periodic behavior. 4) The 546 days periodicity detected in the MCMESI may not be of solar origin or at least the solar flares are not the source of this periodicity. 5) C and M Class solar flares have a stronger causative effect on the MCMESI compared to X class solar flares. However the only bidirectional causal relationship is obtained between the MCMESI and C class flare numbers.
Previous estimates of the solar flare abundances of Si, S, Cl, Ar, and K from the RESIK X-ray crystal spectrometer on board the CORONAS-F spacecraft were made on the assumption of isothermal X-ray emission. We investigate the effect on these estimates by relaxing this assumption and instead determining the differential emission measure (DEM) or thermal structure of the emitting plasma by re-analyzing RESIK data for a GOES class M1.0 flare on 2002 November~14 (SOL2002-11-14T22:26) for which there was good data coverage. The analysis method uses a maximum-likelihood (Withbroe--Sylwester) routine for evaluating the DEM. In a first step, called here AbuOpt, an optimized set of abundances of Si, S, Ar, and K is found that is consistent with the observed spectra. With these abundances, the differential emission measure evolution during the flare is found. The abundance optimization leads to revised abundances of silicon and sulfur in the flare plasma: $A({rm S}) = 6.94 pm 0.06$ and $A({rm Si}) = 7.56 pm 0.08$ (on a logarithmic scale with $A({rm H}) = 12$). Previously determined abundances of Ar, K, and Cl from an isothermal assumption are still the preferred values. During the flares maximum phase, the X-ray-emitting plasma has a basically two-temperature structure, with the cooler plasma with approximately constant temperature (3--6~MK) and a hotter plasma with temperature $16-21$~MK. Using imaging data from the RHESSI hard X-ray spacecraft, the emission volume of the hot plasma is deduced from which lower limits of the electron density $N_e$ and the thermal content of the plasma are given.
Line coincidence photopumping is a process where the electrons of an atomic or molecular species are radiatively excited through the absorption of line emission from another species at a coincident wavelength. There are many instances of line coincidence photopumping in astrophysical sources at optical and ultraviolet wavelengths, with the most famous example being Bowen fluorescence (pumping of O III 303.80 A by He II), but none to our knowledge in X-rays. However, here we report on a scheme where a He-like line of Ne IX at 11.000 A is photopumped by He-like Na X at 11.003 A, which predicts significant intensity enhancement in the Ne IX 82.76 A transition under physical conditions found in solar flare plasmas. A comparison of our theoretical models with published X-ray observations of a solar flare obtained during a rocket flight provides evidence for line enhancement, with the measured degree of enhancement being consistent with that expected from theory, a truly surprising result. Observations of this enhancement during flares on stars other than the Sun would provide a powerful new diagnostic tool for determining the sizes of flare loops in these distant, spatially-unresolved, astronomical sources.
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