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Register a new userQuantifying sudden changes in dynamical systems using symbolic networks
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We characterise the evolution of a dynamical system by combining two well-known complex systems tools, namely, symbolic ordinal analysis and networks. From the ordinal representation of a time-series we construct a network in which every node weights represents the probability of an ordinal patterns (OPs) to appear in the symbolic sequence and each edges weight represents the probability of transitions between two consecutive OPs. Several network-based diagnostics are then proposed to characterize the dynamics of different systems: logistic, tent and circle maps. We show that these diagnostics are able to capture changes produced in the dynamics as a control parameter is varied. We also apply our new measures to empirical data from semiconductor lasers and show that they are able to anticipate the polarization switchings, thus providing early warning signals of abrupt transitions.
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Improved mobility not only contributes to more intensive human activities but also facilitates the spread of communicable disease, thus constituting a major threat to billions of urban commuters. In this study, we present a multi-city investigation of communicable diseases percolating among metro travelers. We use smart card data from three megacities in China to construct individual-level contact networks, based on which the spread of disease is modeled and studied. We observe that, though differing in urban forms, network layouts, and mobility patterns, the metro systems of the three cities share similar contact network structures. This motivates us to develop a universal generation model that captures the distributions of the number of contacts as well as the contact duration among individual travelers. This model explains how the structural properties of the metro contact network are associated with the risk level of communicable diseases. Our results highlight the vulnerability of urban mass transit systems during disease outbreaks and suggest important planning and operation strategies for mitigating the risk of communicable diseases.
Understanding the mechanisms of complex systems is very important. Networked dynamical system, that understanding a system as a group of nodes interacting on a given network according to certain dynamic rules, is a powerful tool for modelling complex systems. However, finding such models according to the time series of behaviors is hard. Conventional methods can work well only on small networks and some types of dynamics. Based on a Bernoulli network generator and a Markov dynamics learner, this paper proposes a unified framework for Automated Interaction network and Dynamics Discovery (AIDD) on various network structures and different types of dynamics. The experiments show that AIDD can be applied on large systems with thousands of nodes. AIDD can not only infer the unknown network structure and states for hidden nodes but also can reconstruct the real gene regulatory network based on the noisy, incomplete, and being disturbed data which is closed to real situations. We further propose a new method to test data-driven models by experiments of control. We optimize a controller on the learned model, and then apply it on both the learned and the ground truth models. The results show that both of them behave similarly under the same control law, which means AIDD models have learned the real network dynamics correctly.
Mental health challenges are thought to afflict around 10% of the global population each year, with many going untreated due to stigma and limited access to services. Here, we explore trends in words and phrases related to mental health through a collection of 1- , 2-, and 3-grams parsed from a data stream of roughly 10% of all English tweets since 2012. We examine temporal dynamics of mental health language, finding that the popularity of the phrase mental health increased by nearly two orders of magnitude between 2012 and 2018. We observe that mentions of mental health spike annually and reliably due to mental health awareness campaigns, as well as unpredictably in response to mass shootings, celebrities dying by suicide, and popular fictional stories portraying suicide. We find that the level of positivity of messages containing mental health, while stable through the growth period, has declined recently. Finally, we use the ratio of original tweets to retweets to quantify the fraction of appearances of mental health language due to social amplification. Since 2015, mentions of mental health have become increasingly due to retweets, suggesting that stigma associated with discussion of mental health on Twitter has diminished with time.
Symbolic relative entropy, an efficient nonlinear complexity parameter measuring probabilistic divergences of symbolic sequences, is proposed in our nonlinear dynamics analysis of heart rates considering equal states. Equalities are not rare in discrete heartbeats because of the limits of resolution of signals collection, and more importantly equal states contain underlying important cardiac regulation information which is neglected by some chaotic deterministic parameters and temporal asymmetric measurements. The relative entropy of symbolization associated with equal states has satisfied nonlinear dynamics complexity detections in heartbeats and shows advantages to some nonlinear dynamics parameters without considering equalities. Researches on cardiac activities suggest the highest probabilistic divergence of the healthy young heart rates and highlight the facts that heart diseases and aging reduce the nonlinear dynamical complexity of heart rates.
We employ the framework of the Koopman operator and dynamic mode decomposition to devise a computationally cheap and easily implementable method to detect transient dynamics and regime changes in time series. We argue that typically transient dynamics experiences the full state space dimension with subsequent fast relaxation towards the attractor. In equilibrium, on the other hand, the dynamics evolves on a slower time scale on a lower dimensional attractor. The reconstruction error of a dynamic mode decomposition is used to monitor the inability of the time series to resolve the fast relaxation towards the attractor as well as the effective dimension of the dynamics. We illustrate our method by detecting transient dynamics in the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. We further apply our method to atmospheric reanalysis data; our diagnostics detects the transition from a predominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to a predominantly positive NAO around 1970, as well as the recently found regime change in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation around 1970.
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