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Register a new userPlanet Population Synthesis
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Added by
Christoph Mordasini
Publication date
2014
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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With the increasing number of exoplanets discovered, statistical properties of the population as a whole become unique constraints on planet formation models provided a link between the description of the detailed processes playing a role in this formation and the observed population can be established. Planet population synthesis provides such a link. The approach allows to study how different physical models of individual processes (e.g., proto-planetary disc structure and evolution, planetesimal formation, gas accretion, migration, etc.) affect the overall properties of the population of emerging planets. By necessity, planet population synthesis relies on simplified descriptions of complex processes. These descriptions can be obtained from more detailed specialised simulations of these processes. The objective of this chapter is twofold: 1) provide an overview of the physics entering in the two main approaches to planet population synthesis and 2) present some of the results achieved as well as illustrate how it can be used to extract constraints on the models and to help interpret observations.
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While planets are commonly discovered around main-sequence stars, the processes leading to their formation are still far from being understood. Current planet population synthesis models, which aim to describe the planet formation process from the protoplanetary disk phase to the time exoplanets are observed, rely on prescriptions for the underlying properties of protoplanetary disks where planets form and evolve. The recent development in measuring disk masses and disk-star interaction properties, i.e., mass accretion rates, in large samples of young stellar objects demand a more careful comparison between the models and the data. We performed an initial critical assessment of the assumptions made by planet synthesis population models by looking at the relation between mass accretion rates and disk masses in the models and in the currently available data. We find that the currently used disk models predict mass accretion rate in line with what is measured, but with a much lower spread of values than observed. This difference is mainly because the models have a smaller spread of viscous timescales than what is needed to reproduce the observations. We also find an overabundance of weakly accreting disks in the models where giant planets have formed with respect to observations of typical disks. We suggest that either fewer giant planets have formed in reality or that the prescription for planet accretion predicts accretion on the planets that is too high. Finally, the comparison of the properties of transition disks with large cavities confirms that in many of these objects the observed accretion rates are higher than those predicted by the models. On the other hand, PDS70, a transition disk with two detected giant planets in the cavity, shows mass accretion rates well in line with model predictions.
The radius distribution of small, close-in exoplanets has recently been shown to be bimodal. The photoevaporation model predicted this bimodality. In the photoevaporation scenario, some planets are completely stripped of their primordial H/He atmospheres, whereas others retain them. Comparisons between the photoevaporation model and observed planetary populations have the power to unveil details of the planet population inaccessible by standard observations, such as the core mass distribution and core composition. In this work, we present a hierarchical inference analysis on the distribution of close-in exoplanets using forward-models of photoevaporation evolution. We use this model to constrain the planetary distributions for core composition, core mass and initial atmospheric mass fraction. We find that the core-mass distribution is peaked, with a peak-mass of $sim 4$M$_oplus$. The bulk core-composition is consistent with a rock/iron mixture that is ice-poor and ``Earth-like; the spread in core-composition is found to be narrow ($lesssim 16%$ variation in iron-mass fraction at the 2$sigma$ level) and consistent with zero. This result favours core formation in a water/ice poor environment. We find the majority of planets accreted a H/He envelope with a typical mass fraction of $sim 4%$; only a small fraction did not accrete large amounts of H/He and were ``born-rocky. We find four-times as many super-Earths were formed through photoevaporation, as formed without a large H/He atmosphere. Finally, we find core-accretion theory over-predicts the amount of H/He cores would have accreted by a factor of $sim 5$, pointing to additional mass-loss mechanisms (e.g. ``boil-off) or modifications to core-accretion theory.
We propose an expression for a local planetesimal formation rate proportional to the instantaneous radial pebble flux. The result --- a radial planetesimal distribution --- can be used as initial condition to study the formation of planetary embryos. We follow the idea that one needs particle traps to locally enhance the dust-to-gas ratio sufficiently such that particle gas interactions can no longer prevent planetesimal formation on small scales. The location of these traps can emerge everywhere in the disk. Their occurrence and lifetime is subject of ongoing research, thus they are implemented via free parameters. This enables us to study the influence of the disk properties on the formation of planetesimals, predicting their time dependent formation rates and location of primary pebble accretion. We show that large $alpha$-values of $0.01$ (strong turbulence) prevent the formation of planetesimals in the inner part of the disk, arguing for lower values of around $0.001$ (moderate turbulence), at which planetesimals form quickly at all places where they are needed for proto-planets. Planetesimals form as soon as dust has grown to pebbles ($simmathrm{mm}$ to $mathrm{dm}$) and the pebble flux reaches a critical value, which is after a few thousand years at $2-3,$AU and after a few hundred thousand years at $20-30,$AU. Planetesimal formation lasts until the pebble supply has decreased below a critical value. The final spatial planetesimal distribution is steeper compared to the initial dust and gas distribution which helps to explain the discrepancy between the minimum mass solar nebula and viscous accretion disks.
The presence of CO gas around 10-50 Myr old A stars with debris discs has sparked debate on whether the gas is primordial or secondary. Since secondary gas released from planetesimals is poor in H$_2$, it was thought that CO would quickly photodissociate never reaching the high levels observed around the majority of A stars with bright debris discs. Kral et al. 2019 showed that neutral carbon produced by CO photodissociation can effectively shield CO and potentially explain the high CO masses around 9 A stars with bright debris discs. Here we present a new model that simulates the gas viscous evolution, accounting for carbon shielding and how the gas release rate decreases with time as the planetesimal disc loses mass. We find that the present gas mass in a system is highly dependant on its evolutionary path. Since gas is lost on long timescales, it can retain a memory of the initial disc mass. Moreover, we find that gas levels can be out of equilibrium and quickly evolving from a shielded onto an unshielded state. With this model, we build the first population synthesis of gas around A stars, which we use to constrain the disc viscosity. We find a good match with a high viscosity ($alphasim0.1$), indicating that gas is lost on timescales $sim1-10$ Myr. Moreover, our model also shows that high CO masses are not expected around FGK stars since their planetesimal discs are born with lower masses, explaining why shielded discs are only found around A stars. Finally, we hypothesise that the observed carbon cavities could be due to radiation pressure or accreting planets.
The collection of planetary system properties derived from large surveys such as Kepler provides critical constraints on planet formation and evolution. These constraints can only be applied to planet formation models, however, if the observational biases and selection effects are properly accounted for. Here we show how epos, the Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator, can be used to constrain planet formation models by comparing the Bern planet population synthesis models to the Kepler exoplanetary systems. We compile a series of diagnostics, based on occurrence rates of different classes of planets and the architectures of multi-planet systems, that can be used as benchmarks for future and current modeling efforts. Overall, we find that a model with 100 seed planetary cores per protoplanetary disk provides a reasonable match to most diagnostics. Based on these diagnostics we identify physical properties and processes that would result in the Bern model more closely matching the known planetary systems. These are: moving the planet trap at the inner disk edge outward; increasing the formation efficiency of mini-Neptunes; and reducing the fraction of stars that form observable planets. We conclude with an outlook on the composition of planets in the habitable zone, and highlight that the majority of simulated planets smaller than 1.7 Earth radii have substantial hydrogen atmospheres. The software used in this paper is available online for public scrutiny at https://github.com/GijsMulders/epos
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