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Register a new userThe Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator. II -- Population Synthesis in the Era of Kepler
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The collection of planetary system properties derived from large surveys such as Kepler provides critical constraints on planet formation and evolution. These constraints can only be applied to planet formation models, however, if the observational biases and selection effects are properly accounted for. Here we show how epos, the Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator, can be used to constrain planet formation models by comparing the Bern planet population synthesis models to the Kepler exoplanetary systems. We compile a series of diagnostics, based on occurrence rates of different classes of planets and the architectures of multi-planet systems, that can be used as benchmarks for future and current modeling efforts. Overall, we find that a model with 100 seed planetary cores per protoplanetary disk provides a reasonable match to most diagnostics. Based on these diagnostics we identify physical properties and processes that would result in the Bern model more closely matching the known planetary systems. These are: moving the planet trap at the inner disk edge outward; increasing the formation efficiency of mini-Neptunes; and reducing the fraction of stars that form observable planets. We conclude with an outlook on the composition of planets in the habitable zone, and highlight that the majority of simulated planets smaller than 1.7 Earth radii have substantial hydrogen atmospheres. The software used in this paper is available online for public scrutiny at https://github.com/GijsMulders/epos
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A new generation of exoplanet research beckons and with it the need for simulation tools that accurately predict signal and noise in transit spectroscopy observations. We developed ExoSim: an end-to-end simulator that models noise and systematics in a dynamical simulation. ExoSim improves on previous simulators in the complexity of its simulation, versatility of use and its ability to be generically applied to different instruments. It performs a dynamical simulation that can capture temporal effects, such as correlated noise and systematics on the light curve. It has also been extensively validated, including against real results from the Hubble WFC3 instrument. We find ExoSim is accurate to within 5% in most comparisons. ExoSim can interact with other models which simulate specific time-dependent processes. A dedicated star spot simulator allows ExoSim to produce simulated observations that include spot and facula contamination. ExoSim has been used extensively in the Phase A and B design studies of the ARIEL mission, and has many potential applications in the field of transit spectroscopy.
The expected imaging capabilities of future Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs) will offer the unique possibility to investigate the stellar population of distant galaxies from the photometry of the stars in very crowded fields. Using simulated images and photometric analysis we explore here two representative science cases aimed at recovering the characteristics of the stellar populations in the inner regions of distant galaxies. Specifically: case A) at the center of the disk of a giant spiral in the Centaurus Group, (mu B~21, distance of 4.6 Mpc); and, case B) at half of the effective radius of a giant elliptical in the Virgo Cluster (mu~19.5, distance of 18 Mpc). We generate synthetic frames by distributing model stellar populations and adopting a representative instrumental set up, i.e. a 42 m Telescope operating close to the diffraction limit. The effect of crowding is discussed in detail showing how stars are measured preferentially brighter than they are as the confusion limit is approached. We find that (i) accurate photometry (sigma~0.1, completeness >90%) can be obtained for case B) down to I~28.5, J~27.5 allowing us to recover the stellar metallicity distribution in the inner regions of ellipticals in Virgo to within ~0.1 dex; (ii) the same photometric accuracy holds for the science case A) down to J~28.0, K~27.0, enabling to reconstruct of the star formation history up to the Hubble time via simple star counts in diagnostic boxes. For this latter case we discuss the possibility of deriving more detailed information on the star formation history from the analysis of their Horizontal Branch stars. We show that the combined features of high sensitivity and angular resolution of ELTs may open a new era for our knowledge of the stellar content of galaxies of different morphological type up to the distance of the Virgo cluster.
We present new UV-to-IR stellar photometry of four low-extinction windows in the Galactic bulge, obtained with the Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Using our five bandpasses, we have defined reddening-free photometric indices sensitive to stellar effective temperature and metallicity. We find that the bulge populations resemble those formed via classical dissipative collapse: each field is dominated by an old (~10 Gyr) population exhibiting a wide metallicity range (-1.5 < [Fe/H] < 0.5). We detect a metallicity gradient in the bulge population, with the fraction of stars at super-solar metallicities dropping from 41% to 35% over distances from the Galactic center ranging from 0.3 to 1.2 kpc. One field includes candidate exoplanet hosts discovered in the SWEEPS HST transit survey. Our measurements for 11 of these hosts demonstrate that exoplanets in the distinct bulge environment are preferentially found around high-metallicity stars, as in the solar neighborhood, supporting the view that planets form more readily in metal-rich environments.
No true extrasolar Earth analog is known. Hundreds of planets have been found around Sun-like stars that are either Earth-sized but on shorter periods, or else on year-long orbits but somewhat larger. Under strong assumptions, exoplanet catalogs have been used to make an extrapolated estimate of the rate at which Sun-like stars host Earth analogs. These studies are complicated by the fact that every catalog is censored by non-trivial selection effects and detection efficiencies, and every property (period, radius, etc.) is measured noisily. Here we present a general hierarchical probabilistic framework for making justified inferences about the population of exoplanets, taking into account survey completeness and, for the first time, observational uncertainties. We are able to make fewer assumptions about the distribution than previous studies; we only require that the occurrence rate density be a smooth function of period and radius (employing a Gaussian process). By applying our method to synthetic catalogs, we demonstrate that it produces more accurate estimates of the whole population than standard procedures based on weighting by inverse detection efficiency. We apply the method to an existing catalog of small planet candidates around G dwarf stars (Petigura et al. 2013). We confirm a previous result that the radius distribution changes slope near Earths radius. We find that the rate density of Earth analogs is about 0.02 (per star per natural logarithmic bin in period and radius) with large uncertainty. This number is much smaller than previous estimates made with the same data but stronger assumptions.
With the increasing number of exoplanets discovered, statistical properties of the population as a whole become unique constraints on planet formation models provided a link between the description of the detailed processes playing a role in this formation and the observed population can be established. Planet population synthesis provides such a link. The approach allows to study how different physical models of individual processes (e.g., proto-planetary disc structure and evolution, planetesimal formation, gas accretion, migration, etc.) affect the overall properties of the population of emerging planets. By necessity, planet population synthesis relies on simplified descriptions of complex processes. These descriptions can be obtained from more detailed specialised simulations of these processes. The objective of this chapter is twofold: 1) provide an overview of the physics entering in the two main approaches to planet population synthesis and 2) present some of the results achieved as well as illustrate how it can be used to extract constraints on the models and to help interpret observations.
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