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Register a new userArbitrage of the first kind and filtration enlargements in semimartingale financial models
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Constantinos Kardaras
Publication date
2014
fields
Financial
and research's language is
English
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In a general semimartingale financial model, we study the stability of the No Arbitrage of the First Kind (NA1) (or, equivalently, No Unbounded Profit with Bounded Risk) condition under initial and under progressive filtration enlargements. In both cases, we provide a simple and general condition which is sufficient to ensure this stability for any fixed semimartingale model. Furthermore, we give a characterisation of the NA1 stability for all semimartingale models.
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Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that the observed process is a noisy realization of some hidden states. Real-time estimation of the unobserved spread process can reveal temporary market inefficiencies which can then be exploited to generate excess returns. Building on previous work, we embrace the state-space framework for modeling spread processes and extend this methodology along three different directions. First, we introduce time-dependency in the model parameters, which allows for quick adaptation to changes in the data generating process. Second, we provide an on-line estimation algorithm that can be constantly run in real-time. Being computationally fast, the algorithm is particularly suitable for building aggressive trading strategies based on high-frequency data and may be used as a monitoring device for mean-reversion. Finally, our framework naturally provides informative uncertainty measures of all the estimated parameters. Experimental results based on Monte Carlo simulations and historical equity data are discussed, including a co-integration relationship involving two exchange-traded funds.
We develop a new Monte Carlo variance reduction method to estimate the expectation of two commonly encountered path-dependent functionals: first-passage times and occupation times of sets. The method is based on a recursive approximation of the first-passage time probability and expected occupation time of sets of a Levy bridge process that relies in part on a randomisation of the time parameter. We establish this recursion for general Levy processes and derive its explicit form for mixed-exponential jump-diffusions, a dense subclass (in the sense of weak approximation) of Levy processes, which includes Brownian motion with drift, Kous double-exponential model and hyper-exponential jump-diffusion models. We present a highly accurate numerical realisation and derive error estimates. By way of illustration the method is applied to the valuation of range accruals and barrier options under exponential Levy models and Bates-type stochastic volatility models with exponential jumps. Compared with standard Monte Carlo methods, we find that the method is significantly more efficient.
We combine stochastic control methods, white noise analysis and Hida-Malliavin calculus applied to the Donsker delta functional to obtain new representations of semimartingale decompositions under enlargement of filtrations. The results are illustrated by explicit examples.
We revisit the dividend payment problem in the dual model of Avanzi et al. ([2], [1], and [3]). Using the fluctuation theory of spectrally positive L{e}vy processes, we give a short exposition in which we show the optimality of barrier strategies for all such L{e}vy processes. Moreover, we characterize the optimal barrier using the functional inverse of a scale function. We also consider the capital injection problem of [3] and show that its value function has a very similar form to the one in which the horizon is the time of ruin.
In Liang et al (2009), the current authors demonstrated that BSDEs can be reformulated as functional differential equations, and as an application, they solved BSDEs on general filtered probability spaces. In this paper the authors continue the study of functional differential equations and demonstrate how such approach can be used to solve FBSDEs. By this approach the equations can be solved in one direction altogether rather than in a forward and backward way. The solutions of FBSDEs are then employed to construct the weak solutions to a class of BSDE systems (not necessarily scalar) with quadratic growth, by a nonlinear version of Girsanovs transformation. As the solving procedure is constructive, the authors not only obtain the existence and uniqueness theorem, but also really work out the solutions to such class of BSDE systems with quadratic growth. Finally an optimal portfolio problem in incomplete markets is solved based on the functional differential equation approach and the nonlinear Girsanovs transformation.
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