No Arabic abstract
In social systems, people communicate with each other and form groups based on their interests. The pattern of interactions, the network, and the ideas that flow on the network naturally evolve together. Researchers use simple models to capture the feedback between changing network patterns and ideas on the network, but little is understood about the role of past events in the feedback process. Here we introduce a simple agent-based model to study the coupling between peoples ideas and social networks, and better understand the role of history in dynamic social networks. We measure how information about ideas can be recovered from information about network structure and, the other way around, how information about network structure can be recovered from information about ideas. We find that it is in general easier to recover ideas from the network structure than vice versa.
To investigate the role of information flow in group formation, we introduce a model of communication and social navigation. We let agents gather information in an idealized network society, and demonstrate that heterogeneous groups can evolve without presuming that individuals have different interests. In our scenario, individuals access to global information is constrained by local communication with the nearest neighbors on a dynamic network. The result is reinforced interests among like-minded agents in modular networks; the flow of information works as a glue that keeps individuals together. The model explains group formation in terms of limited information access and highlights global broadcasting of information as a way to counterbalance this fragmentation. To illustrate how the information constraints imposed by the communication structure affects future development of real-world systems, we extrapolate dynamics from the topology of four social networks.
The social network maintained by a focal individual, or ego, is intrinsically dynamic and typically exhibits some turnover in membership over time as personal circumstances change. However, the consequences of such changes on the distribution of an egos network ties are not well understood. Here we use a unique 18-month data set that combines mobile phone calls and survey data to track changes in the ego networks and communication patterns of students making the transition from school to university or work. Our analysis reveals that individuals display a distinctive and robust social signature, captured by how interactions are distributed across different alters. Notably, for a given ego, these social signatures tend to persist over time, despite considerable turnover in the identity of alters in the ego network. Thus as new network members are added, some old network members are either replaced or receive fewer calls, preserving the overall distribution of calls across network members. This is likely to reflect the consequences of finite resources such as the time available for communication, the cognitive and emotional effort required to sustain close relationships, and the ability to make emotional investments.
Current models for opinion dynamics typically utilize a Poisson process for speaker selection, making the waiting time between events exponentially distributed. Human interaction tends to be bursty, though, having higher probabilities of either extremely short waiting times or long periods of silence. To quantify the burstiness effects on the dynamics of social models, we place in competition two groups exhibiting different speakers waiting-time distributions. These competitions are implemented in the binary Naming Game, and show that the relevant aspect of the waiting-time distribution is the density of the head rather than that of the tail. We show that even with identical mean waiting times, a group with a higher density of short waiting times is favored in competition over the other group. This effect remains in the presence of nodes holding a single opinion that never changes, as the fraction of such committed individuals necessary for achieving consensus decreases dramatically when they have a higher head density than the holders of the competing opinion. Finally, to quantify differences in burstiness, we introduce the expected number of small-time activations and use it to characterize the early-time regime of the system.
Internet communication channels, e.g., Facebook, Twitter, and email, are multiplex networks that facilitate interaction and information-sharing among individuals. During brief time periods users often use a single communication channel, but then communication channel alteration (CCA) occurs. This means that we must refine our understanding of the dynamics of social contagions. We propose a non-Markovian behavior spreading model in multiplex networks that takes into account the CCA mechanism, and we develop a generalized edge-based compartmental method to describe the spreading dynamics. Through extensive numerical simulations and theoretical analyses we find that the time delays induced by CCA slow the behavior spreading but do not affect the final adoption size. We also find that the CCA suppresses behavior spreading. On two coupled random regular networks, the adoption size exhibits hybrid growth, i.e., it grows first continuously and then discontinuously with the information transmission probability. CCA in ER-SF multiplex networks in which two subnetworks are ErdH{o}s-R{e}nyi (ER) and scale-free (SF) introduces a crossover from continuous to hybrid growth in adoption size versus information transmission probability. Our results extend our understanding of the role of CCA in spreading dynamics, and may elicit further research.
Vaccination and outbreak monitoring are essential tools for preventing and minimizing outbreaks of infectious diseases. Targeted strategies, where the individuals most important for monitoring or preventing outbreaks are selected for intervention, offer a possibility to significantly improve these measures. Although targeted strategies carry a strong potential, identifying optimal target groups remains a challenge. Here we consider the problem of identifying target groups based on digital communication networks (telecommunication, online social media) in order to predict and contain an infectious disease spreading on a real-world person-to-person network of more than 500 individuals. We show that target groups for efficient outbreak monitoring can be determined based on both telecommunication and online social network information. In case of vaccination the information regarding the digital communication networks improves the efficacy for short-range disease transmissions but, surprisingly, performance is severely reduced in the case of long-range transmission. These results are robust with respect to the strategy used to identify targeted individuals and time-gap between identification of targets and the intervention. Thus, we demonstrate that data available from telecommunication and online social networks can greatly improve epidemic control measures, but it is important to consider the details of the pathogen spreading mechanism when such policies are applied.