No Arabic abstract
The historical record of sunspot areas is a valuable and widely used proxy of solar activity and variability. The Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) regularly measured this and other parameters between 1874 and 1976. After that time records from a number of different observatories are available. These, however, show systematic differences and often have significants gaps. Our goal is to obtain a uniform and complete sunspot area time series by combining different data sets. A homogeneus composite of sunspot areas is essential for different applications in solar physics, among others for irradiance reconstructions. Data recorded simultaneously at different observatories are statistically compared in order to determine the intercalibration factors. Using these data we compile a complete and cross-calibrated time series. The Greenwich data set is used as a basis until 1976, the Russian data (a compilation of observations made at stations in the former USSR) between 1977 and 1985 and data compiled by the USAF network since 1986. Other data sets (Rome, Yunnan, Catania) are used to fill up the remaining gaps. Using the final sunspot areas record the Photometric Sunspot Index is calculated. We also show that the use of uncalibrated sunspot areas data sets can seriously affect the estimate of irradiance variations. Our analysis implies that there is no basis for the claim that UV irradiance variations have a much smaller influence on climate than total solar irradiance variations.
A new software (Soonspot) for the determination of the heliographic coordinates and areas of sunspots from solar images is presented. This program is very user-friendly and the accuracy of its results has been checked by using solar images provided by the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD). Due to its applicability in the studies of historical solar observations, the program has been used to analyze the solar drawings carried out by Hevelius in the 17th century.
Long and consistent sunspot area records are important for understanding the long-term solar activity and variability. Multiple observatories around the globe have regularly recorded sunspot areas, but such individual records only cover restricted periods of time. Furthermore, there are also systematic differences between them, so that these records need to be cross-calibrated before they can be reliably used for further studies. We produce a cross-calibrated and homogeneous record of total daily sunspot areas, both projected and corrected, covering the period between 1874 and 2019. A catalogue of calibrated individual group areas is also generated for the same period. We have compared the data from nine archives: Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO), Kislovodsk, Pulkovo, Debrecen, Kodaikanal, Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON), Rome, Catania, and Yunnan Observatories, covering the period between 1874 and 2019. Mutual comparisons of the individual records have been employed to produce homogeneous and inter-calibrated records of daily projected and corrected areas. As in earlier studies, the basis of the composite is formed by the data from RGO. After 1976, the only datasets used are those from Kislovodsk, Pulkovo and Debrecen observatories. This choice was made based on the temporal coverage and the quality of the data. In contrast to the SOON data used in previous area composites for the post-RGO period, the properties of the data from Kislovodsk and Pulkovo are very similar to those from the RGO series. They also directly overlap the RGO data in time, which makes their cross-calibration with RGO much more reliable. We have also computed and provide the daily Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) widely used, e.g., in empirical reconstructions of solar irradiance.
This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.
We present partial results from our monitoring of the nuclear region of the starburst galaxy IC 694 (=Arp 299-A) at radio wavelengths, aimed at discovering recently exploded CCSNe, as well as to determine their rate of explosion, which carries crucial information on star formation rates and starburst scenarios at work. Two epochs of eEVN observations at 5.0 GHz, taken in 2008, revealed the presence of a rich cluster of compact radio emitting sources in the central 150 pc of the nuclear starburst in Arp 299A. The large brightness temperatures observed for the compact sources indicate a non-thermal origin for the observed radio emission, implying that most, if not all, of those sources were young radio supernovae (RSNe) and supernova remnants (SNRs). More recently, contemporaneous EVN observations at 1.7 and 5.0 GHz taken in 2009 have allowed us to shed light on the compact radio emission of the parsec-scale structure in the nucleus of Arp 299-A. Namely, our EVN observations have shown that one of the compact VLBI sources, A1, previously detected at 5.0 GHz, has a flat spectrum between 1.7 and 5.0 GHz and is the brightest source at both frequencies. The morphology, radio luminosity, spectral index and ratio of radio-to-X-ray emission of the A1-A5 region allowed us to identify A1-A5 with long-sought AGN in Arp 299-A. This finding may suggest that both starburst and AGN are frequently associated phenomena in mergers. Finally, we also note that component A0, identified as a young RSN, exploded at the mere distance of two parsecs from the putative AGN in Arp 299-A, which makes this supernova one of the closest to a central supermassive black hole ever detected.
The number of spots on the surface of the Sun is one of the best tracers of solar variability we have. The sunspot number is not only known to change in phase with the 11-year solar cycles, but also to show variability on longer time scales. It is, however, not only the sunspot number that changes in connection with solar variability. The location of the spots on the solar surface is also known to change in phase with the 11-year solar cycle. This has traditionally been visualised in the so-called butterfly diagram, but this is only well constrained from the beginning of the 19th century. This is unfortunate, as knowledge about the butterfly diagram could aid our understanding of the variability and the Sun-Earth connection. As part of a larger review of the work done on sunspots by the Danish astronomer Christian Horrebow, we here present a reanalysis of Christian Horrebows notebooks covering the years 1761 and 1764 - 1777. These notebooks have been analysed in at least three earlier studies by Thiele (Astron. Nachr. 50, 257, 1859), dArrest (published in Wolf, Astron. Mitt. Eidgenoss. Sternwarte Zur. 4, 77, 1873) and Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 160, 387, 1995). In this article, we construct a complete record of sunspot positions covering the years 1761 and 1764 - 1777. The resulting butterfly diagram shows the characteristic structure known from observations in the 19th and 20th century. We do see some indications of equatorial sunspots in the observations we have from Cycle 1. However, in Cycle 2, which has much better coverage, we do not see such indications.