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Register a new userThe ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years
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Tim Palmer
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This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.
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The infrared spectra of many galactic and extragalactic objects are dominated by emission features at 3.3, 6.2, 7.7, 8.6 and 11.2 mu m. The carriers of these features remained a mystery for almost a decade, hence the bands were dubbed the unidentified infrared (UIR) bands. Since the mid-80s, the UIR bands are generally attributed to the IR fluorescence of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon molecules (PAHs) upon absorption of UV photons -- the PAH hypothesis. Here we review the progress made over the past 25 years in understanding the UIR bands and their carriers.
Shortly after the seminal paper {sl Self-Organized Criticality: An explanation of 1/f noise} by Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld (1987), the idea has been applied to solar physics, in {sl Avalanches and the Distribution of Solar Flares} by Lu and Hamilton (1991). In the following years, an inspiring cross-fertilization from complexity theory to solar and astrophysics took place, where the SOC concept was initially applied to solar flares, stellar flares, and magnetospheric substorms, and later extended to the radiation belt, the heliosphere, lunar craters, the asteroid belt, the Saturn ring, pulsar glitches, soft X-ray repeaters, blazars, black-hole objects, cosmic rays, and boson clouds. The application of SOC concepts has been performed by numerical cellular automaton simulations, by analytical calculations of statistical (powerlaw-like) distributions based on physical scaling laws, and by observational tests of theoretically predicted size distributions and waiting time distributions. Attempts have been undertaken to import physical models into the numerical SOC toy models, such as the discretization of magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD) processes. The novel applications stimulated also vigorous debates about the discrimination between SOC models, SOC-like, and non-SOC processes, such as phase transitions, turbulence, random-walk diffusion, percolation, branching processes, network theory, chaos theory, fractality, multi-scale, and other complexity phenomena. We review SOC studies from the last 25 years and highlight new trends, open questions, and future challenges, as discussed during two recent ISSI workshops on this theme.
Introduced by the late Per Bak and his colleagues, self-organized criticality (SOC) has been one of the most stimulating concepts to come out of statistical mechanics and condensed matter theory in the last few decades, and has played a significant role in the development of complexity science. SOC, and more generally fractals and power laws, have attacted much comment, ranging from the very positive to the polemical. The other papers in this special issue (Aschwanden et al, 2014; McAteer et al, 2014; Sharma et al, 2015) showcase the considerable body of observations in solar, magnetospheric and fusion plasma inspired by the SOC idea, and expose the fertile role the new paradigm has played in approaches to modeling and understanding multiscale plasma instabilities. This very broad impact, and the necessary process of adapting a scientific hypothesis to the conditions of a given physical system, has meant that SOC as studied in these fields has sometimes differed significantly from the definition originally given by its creators. In Baks own field of theoretical physics there are significant observational and theoretical open questions, even 25 years on (Pruessner, 2012). One aim of the present review is to address the dichotomy between the great reception SOC has received in some areas, and its shortcomings, as they became manifest in the controversies it triggered. Our article tries to clear up what we think are misunderstandings of SOC in fields more remote from its origins in statistical mechanics, condensed matter and dynamical systems by revisiting Bak, Tang and Wiesenfelds original papers.
This article is a report of 25 years of Cosmic Microwave Background activities at INPE. Starting from balloon flights to measure the dipole anisotropy caused by the Earths motion inside the CMB radiation field, whose radiometer was a prototype of the DMR radiometer on board COBE satellite, member of the group cross the 90s working both on CMB anisotropy and foreground measurements. In the 2000s, there was a shift to polarization measurements and to data analysis, mostly focusing on map cleaning, non-gaussianity studies and foreground characterization.
Fomalhaut is a bright star 7.7 parsecs (25 light years) from Earth that harbors a belt of cold dust with a structure consistent with gravitational sculpting by an orbiting planet. Here, we present optical observations of an exoplanet candidate, Fomalhaut b. In the plane of the belt, Fomalhaut b lies approximately 119 astronomical units (AU) from the star and 18 AU from the belt, matching predictions. We detect counterclockwise orbital motion using Hubble Space Telescope observations separated by 1.73 years. Dynamical models of the interaction between the planet and the belt indicate that the planets mass is at most three times that of Jupiter for the belt to avoid gravitational disruption. The flux detected at 800 nm is also consistent with that of a planet with mass no greater than a few times that of Jupiter. The brightness at 600 nm and the lack of detection at longer wavelengths suggest that the detected flux may include starlight reflected off a circumplanetary disk, with dimension comparable to the orbits of the Galilean satellites. We also observed variability of unknown origin at 600 nm.
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