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Register a new userConsidering the Case for Biodiversity Cycles: Reexamining the Evidence for Periodicity in the Fossil Record
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Medvedev and Melott (2007) have suggested that periodicity in fossil biodiversity may be induced by cosmic rays which vary as the Solar System oscillates normal to the galactic disk. We re-examine the evidence for a 62 million year (Myr) periodicity in biodiversity throughout the Phanerozoic history of animal life reported by Rohde & Mueller (2005), as well as related questions of periodicity in origination and extinction. We find that the signal is robust against variations in methods of analysis, and is based on fluctuations in the Paleozoic and a substantial part of the Mesozoic. Examination of origination and extinction is somewhat ambiguous, with results depending upon procedure. Origination and extinction intensity as defined by RM may be affected by an artifact at 27 Myr in the duration of stratigraphic intervals. Nevertheless, when a procedure free of this artifact is implemented, the 27 Myr periodicity appears in origination, suggesting that the artifact may ultimately be based on a signal in the data. A 62 Myr feature appears in extinction, when this same procedure is used. We conclude that evidence for a periodicity at 62 Myr is robust, and evidence for periodicity at approximately 27 Myr is also present, albeit more ambiguous.
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Time series analysis of fossil biodiversity of marine invertebrates in the Paleobiology Database (PBDB) shows a significant periodicity at approximately 63 My, in agreement with previous analyses based on the Sepkoski database. I discuss how this result did not appear in a previous analysis of the PBDB. The existence of the 63 My periodicity, despite very different treatment of systematic error in both PBDB and Sepkoski databases strongly argues for consideration of its reality in the fossil record. Cross-spectral analysis of the two datasets finds that a 62 My periodicity coincides in phase by 1.6 My, equivalent to better than the errors in either measurement. Consequently, the two data sets not only contain the same strong periodicity, but its peaks and valleys closely correspond in time. Two other spectral peaks appear in the PBDB analysis, but appear to be artifacts associated with detrending and with the increased interval length. Sampling-standardization procedures implemented by the PBDB collaboration suggest that the signal is not an artifact of sampling bias. Further work should focus on finding the cause of the 62 My periodicity.
We use Fourier analysis and related techniques to investigate the question of periodicities in fossil biodiversity. These techniques are able to identify cycles superimposed on the long-term trends of the Phanerozoic. We review prior results and analyze data previously reduced and published. Joint time-series analysis of various reductions of the Sepkoski Data, Paleobiology Database, and Fossil Record 2 indicate the same periodicity in biodiversity of marine animals at 62 Myr. We have not found this periodicity in the terrestrial fossil record. We have found that the signal strength decreases with time because of the accumulation of apparently resistant long-lived genera. The existence of a 62-Myr periodicity despite very different treatment of systematic error, particularly sampling-strength biases, in all three major databases strongly argues for its reality in the fossil record.
Based on statistical analysis of the complete genome sequences, a remote relationship has been observed between the evolution of the genetic code and the three domain tree of life. The existence of such a remote relationship need to be explained. The unity of the living system throughout the history of life relies on the common features of life: the homochirality, the genetic code and the universal genome format. The universal genome format has been observed in the genomic codon distributions as a common feature of life at the sequence level. A main aim of this article is to reconstruct and to explain the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve. It has been observed that the exponential growth rate of the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve is about equal to the exponential growth rate of genome size evolution. Hence it is strongly indicated that the expansion of genomes causes the exponential trend of the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve, where the conservative property during the evolution of life is guaranteed by the universal genome format at the sequence level. In addition, a consensus curve based on the climatic and eustatic data is obtained to explain the fluctuations of the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve. Thus, the reconstructed biodiversity curve based on genomic, climatic and eustatic data agrees with Sepkoskis curve based on fossil data. The five mass extinctions can be discerned in this reconstructed biodiversity curve, which indicates a tectonic cause of the mass extinctions. And the declining origination rate and extinction rate throughout the Phanerozoic eon might be due to the growth trend in genome size evolution.
This work deals with the influence of the neighborhood in simple rock-paper-scissors models of biodiversity. We consider the case of three distinct species which evolve under the standard rules of mobility, reproduction and competition. The rule of competition follows the guidance of the rock-paper-scissors game, with the prey being annihilated, leaving an empty site in accordance with the May-Leonard proposal for the predator and prey competition. We use the von Neumann neighborhood, but we consider mobility under the presence of the first, second and third neighbors in three distinct environments, one with equal probability and the others with probability following the power law and exponential profiles. The results are different, but they all show that increasing the neighbourhood increases the characteristic length of the system in an important way. We have studied other possibilities, in particular the case where one modifies the manner a specific species competes, unveiling the interesting result in which the strongest individuals may constitute the less abundant population.
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population, can be solved exactly, even in the presence of a time-dependent infection rate. This delay model has a higher degree of accuracy than that of the so-called SIR model, commonly used in epidemiology, which, instead, is formulated in terms of ordinary differential equations. We apply this model to describe the outbreak of the new infectious disease, Covid-19, in Italy, taking into account the containment measures implemented by the government in order to mitigate the spreading of the virus and the social costs for the population.
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