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This work deals with the influence of the neighborhood in simple rock-paper-scissors models of biodiversity. We consider the case of three distinct species which evolve under the standard rules of mobility, reproduction and competition. The rule of competition follows the guidance of the rock-paper-scissors game, with the prey being annihilated, leaving an empty site in accordance with the May-Leonard proposal for the predator and prey competition. We use the von Neumann neighborhood, but we consider mobility under the presence of the first, second and third neighbors in three distinct environments, one with equal probability and the others with probability following the power law and exponential profiles. The results are different, but they all show that increasing the neighbourhood increases the characteristic length of the system in an important way. We have studied other possibilities, in particular the case where one modifies the manner a specific species competes, unveiling the interesting result in which the strongest individuals may constitute the less abundant population.
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Based on statistical analysis of the complete genome sequences, a remote relationship has been observed between the evolution of the genetic code and the three domain tree of life. The existence of such a remote relationship need to be explained. The unity of the living system throughout the history of life relies on the common features of life: the homochirality, the genetic code and the universal genome format. The universal genome format has been observed in the genomic codon distributions as a common feature of life at the sequence level. A main aim of this article is to reconstruct and to explain the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve. It has been observed that the exponential growth rate of the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve is about equal to the exponential growth rate of genome size evolution. Hence it is strongly indicated that the expansion of genomes causes the exponential trend of the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve, where the conservative property during the evolution of life is guaranteed by the universal genome format at the sequence level. In addition, a consensus curve based on the climatic and eustatic data is obtained to explain the fluctuations of the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve. Thus, the reconstructed biodiversity curve based on genomic, climatic and eustatic data agrees with Sepkoskis curve based on fossil data. The five mass extinctions can be discerned in this reconstructed biodiversity curve, which indicates a tectonic cause of the mass extinctions. And the declining origination rate and extinction rate throughout the Phanerozoic eon might be due to the growth trend in genome size evolution.
Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which assumes no recovery over time, and allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically. The D-model can be extended to describe various focuses of infection, which may account for the original pandemic (D1), the lockdown (D2) and other effects (Dn). The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries (China, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Iran, USA and Germany) shows a similar behavior in concord with the D-model trend, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, which are affected by the earliness and efficiency of the lockdown effect. These results are in agreement with more accurate calculations using the extended SIR model with a parametrized solution and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations, which predict similar trends and indicate a common evolution of the pandemic with universal parameters.
The contact structure of a population plays an important role in transmission of infection. Many ``structured models capture aspects of the contact structure through an underlying network or a mixing matrix. An important observation in such models, is that once a fraction $1-1/mathcal{R}_0$ has been infected, the residual susceptible population can no longer sustain an epidemic. A recent observation of some structured models is that this threshold can be crossed with a smaller fraction of infected individuals, because the disease acts like a targeted vaccine, preferentially immunizing higher-risk individuals who play a greater role in transmission. Therefore, a limited ``first wave may leave behind a residual population that cannot support a second wave once interventions are lifted. In this paper, we systematically analyse a number of mean-field models for networks and other structured populations to address issues relevant to the Covid-19 pandemic. In particular, we consider herd-immunity under several scenarios. We confirm that, in networks with high degree heterogeneity, the first wave confers herd-immunity with significantly fewer infections than equivalent models with lower degree heterogeneity. However, if modelling the intervention as a change in the contact network, then this effect might become more subtle. Indeed, modifying the structure can shield highly connected nodes from becoming infected during the first wave and make the second wave more substantial. We confirm this finding by using an age-structured compartmental model parameterised with real data and comparing lockdown periods implemented either as a global scaling of the mixing matrix or age-specific structural changes. We find that results regarding herd immunity levels are strongly dependent on the model, the duration of lockdown and how lockdown is implemented.
Higher socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood is associated with increased cognitive abilities, higher academic achievement, and decreased incidence of mental illness later in development. Accumulating evidence suggests that these effects may be due to changes in brain development induced by environmental factors. While prior work has mapped the associations between neighborhood SES and brain structure, little is known about the relationship between SES and intrinsic neural dynamics. Here, we capitalize upon a large community-based sample (Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort, ages 8-22 years, n=1012) to examine developmental changes in functional brain network topology as estimated from resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging data. We quantitatively characterize this topology using a local measure of network segregation known as the clustering coefficient, and find that it accounts for a greater degree of SES-associated variance than meso-scale segregation captured by modularity. While whole-brain clustering increased with age, high-SES youth displayed faster increases in clustering than low-SES youth, and this effect was most pronounced for regions in the limbic, somatomotor, and ventral attention systems. The effect of SES on developmental increases in clustering was strongest for connections of intermediate physical length, consistent with faster decreases in local connectivity in these regions in low-SES youth, and tracked changes in BOLD signal complexity in the form of regional homogeneity. Our findings suggest that neighborhood SES may fundamentally alter intrinsic patterns of inter-regional interactions in the human brain in a manner that is consistent with greater segregation of information processing in late childhood and adolescence.
PyRoss is an open-source Python library that offers an integrated platform for inference, prediction and optimisation of NPIs in age- and contact-structured epidemiological compartment models. This report outlines the rationale and functionality of the PyRoss library, with various illustrations and examples focusing on well-mixed, age-structured populations. The PyRoss library supports arbitrary structured models formulated stochastically (as master equations) or deterministically (as ODEs) and allows mid-run transitioning from one to the other. By supporting additional compartmental subdivision ad libitum, PyRoss can emulate time-since-infection models and allows medical stages such as hospitalization or quarantine to be modelled and forecast. The PyRoss library enables fitting to epidemiological data, as available, using Bayesian parameter inference, so that competing models can be weighed by their evidence. PyRoss allows fully Bayesian forecasts of the impact of idealized NPIs by convolving uncertainties arising from epidemiological data, model choice, parameters, and intrinsic stochasticity. Algorithms to optimize time-dependent NPI scenarios against user-defined cost functions are included. PyRosss current age-structured compartment framework for well-mixed populations will in future reports be extended to include compartments structured by location, occupation, use of travel networks and other attributes relevant to assessing disease spread and the impact of NPIs. We argue that such compartment models, by allowing social data of arbitrary granularity to be combined with Bayesian parameter estimation for poorly-known disease variables, could enable more powerful and robust prediction than other approaches to detailed epidemic modelling. We invite others to use the PyRoss library for research to address todays COVID-19 crisis, and to plan for future pandemics.
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