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Consider the state space model (X_t,Y_t), where (X_t) is a Markov chain, and (Y_t) are the observations. In order to solve the so-called filtering problem, one has to compute L(X_t|Y_1,...,Y_t), the law of X_t given the observations (Y_1,...,Y_t). The particle filtering method gives an approximation of the law L(X_t|Y_1,...,Y_t) by an empirical measure frac{1}{n}sum_1^ndelta_{x_{i,t}}. In this paper we establish the moderate deviation principle for the empirical mean frac{1}{n}sum_1^npsi(x_{i,t}) (centered and properly rescaled) when the number of particles grows to infinity, enhancing the central limit theorem. Several extensions and examples are also studied.
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The Poisson--Dirichlet distribution arises in many different areas. The parameter $theta$ in the distribution is the scaled mutation rate of a population in the context of population genetics. The limiting case of $theta$ approaching infinity is practically motivated and has led to new, interesting mathematical structures. Laws of large numbers, fluctuation theorems and large-deviation results have been established. In this paper, moderate-deviation principles are established for the Poisson--Dirichlet distribution, the GEM distribution, the homozygosity, and the Dirichlet process when the parameter $theta$ approaches infinity. These results, combined with earlier work, not only provide a relatively complete picture of the asymptotic behavior of the Poisson--Dirichlet distribution for large $theta$, but also lead to a better understanding of the large deviation problem associated with the scaled homozygosity. They also reveal some new structures that are not observed in existing large-deviation results.
Let $(xi_i,mathcal{F}_i)_{igeq1}$ be a sequence of martingale differences. Set $S_n=sum_{i=1}^nxi_i $ and $[ S]_n=sum_{i=1}^n xi_i^2.$ We prove a Cramer type moderate deviation expansion for $mathbf{P}(S_n/sqrt{[ S]_n} geq x)$ as $nto+infty.$ Our results partly extend the earlier work of [Jing, Shao and Wang, 2003] for independent random variables.
Consider a population of individuals belonging to an infinity number of types, and assume that type proportions follow the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution. A sample of size n is selected from the population. The total number of different types and the number of types appearing in the sample with a fixed frequency are important statistics. In this paper we establish the moderate deviation principles for these quantities. The corresponding rate functions are explicitly identified, which help revealing a critical scale and understanding the exact role of the parameters. Conditional, or posterior, counterparts of moderate deviation principles are also established.
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Mingzhou Xu
, Kun Cheng (School of Information Engineering
, n Jingdezhen Ceramic Institute
2020
We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Ces`aro sense.
We consider the one dimensional symmetric simple exclusion process with a slow bond. In this model, particles cross each bond at rate $N^2$, except one particular bond, the slow bond, where the rate is $N$. Above, $N$ is the scaling parameter. This model has been considered in the context of hydrodynamic limits, fluctuations and large deviations. We investigate moderate deviations from hydrodynamics and obtain a moderate deviation principle.
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