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Register a new userField Study in Deploying Restless Multi-Armed Bandits: Assisting Non-Profits in Improving Maternal and Child Health
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Added by
Shresth Verma
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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The widespread availability of cell phones has enabled non-profits to deliver critical health information to their beneficiaries in a timely manner. This paper describes our work to assist non-profits that employ automated messaging programs to deliver timely preventive care information to beneficiaries (new and expecting mothers) during pregnancy and after delivery. Unfortunately, a key challenge in such information delivery programs is that a significant fraction of beneficiaries drop out of the program. Yet, non-profits often have limited health-worker resources (time) to place crucial service calls for live interaction with beneficiaries to prevent such engagement drops. To assist non-profits in optimizing this limited resource, we developed a Restless Multi-Armed Bandits (RMABs) system. One key technical contribution in this system is a novel clustering method of offline historical data to infer unknown RMAB parameters. Our second major contribution is evaluation of our RMAB system in collaboration with an NGO, via a real-world service quality improvement study. The study compared strategies for optimizing service calls to 23003 participants over a period of 7 weeks to reduce engagement drops. We show that the RMAB group provides statistically significant improvement over other comparison groups, reducing ~ 30% engagement drops. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating the utility of RMABs in real world public health settings. We are transitioning our RMAB system to the NGO for real-world use.
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India has a maternal mortality ratio of 113 and child mortality ratio of 2830 per 100,000 live births. Lack of access to preventive care information is a major contributing factor for these deaths, especially in low resource households. We partner with ARMMAN, a non-profit based in India employing a call-based information program to disseminate health-related information to pregnant women and women with recent child deliveries. We analyze call records of over 300,000 women registered in the program created by ARMMAN and try to identify women who might not engage with these call programs that are proven to result in positive health outcomes. We built machine learning based models to predict the long term engagement pattern from call logs and beneficiaries demographic information, and discuss the applicability of this method in the real world through a pilot validation. Through a randomized controlled trial, we show that using our models predictions to make interventions boosts engagement metrics by 61.37%. We then formulate the intervention planning problem as restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs), and present preliminary results using this approach.
We consider the problem where $N$ agents collaboratively interact with an instance of a stochastic $K$ arm bandit problem for $K gg N$. The agents aim to simultaneously minimize the cumulative regret over all the agents for a total of $T$ time steps, the number of communication rounds, and the number of bits in each communication round. We present Limited Communication Collaboration - Upper Confidence Bound (LCC-UCB), a doubling-epoch based algorithm where each agent communicates only after the end of the epoch and shares the index of the best arm it knows. With our algorithm, LCC-UCB, each agent enjoys a regret of $tilde{O}left(sqrt{({K/N}+ N)T}right)$, communicates for $O(log T)$ steps and broadcasts $O(log K)$ bits in each communication step. We extend the work to sparse graphs with maximum degree $K_G$, and diameter $D$ and propose LCC-UCB-GRAPH which enjoys a regret bound of $tilde{O}left(Dsqrt{(K/N+ K_G)DT}right)$. Finally, we empirically show that the LCC-UCB and the LCC-UCB-GRAPH algorithm perform well and outperform strategies that communicate through a central node
This paper studies a new variant of the stochastic multi-armed bandits problem, where the learner has access to auxiliary information about the arms. The auxiliary information is correlated with the arm rewards, which we treat as control variates. In many applications, the arm rewards are a function of some exogenous values, whose mean value is known a priori from historical data and hence can be used as control variates. We use the control variates to obtain mean estimates with smaller variance and tighter confidence bounds. We then develop an algorithm named UCB-CV that uses improved estimates. We characterize the regret bounds in terms of the correlation between the rewards and control variates. The experiments on synthetic data validate the performance guarantees of our proposed algorithm.
Multi-action restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) are a powerful framework for constrained resource allocation in which $N$ independent processes are managed. However, previous work only study the offline setting where problem dynamics are known. We address this restrictive assumption, designing the first algorithms for learning good policies for Multi-action RMABs online using combinations of Lagrangian relaxation and Q-learning. Our first approach, MAIQL, extends a method for Q-learning the Whittle index in binary-action RMABs to the multi-action setting. We derive a generalized update rule and convergence proof and establish that, under standard assumptions, MAIQL converges to the asymptotically optimal multi-action RMAB policy as $trightarrow{}infty$. However, MAIQL relies on learning Q-functions and indexes on two timescales which leads to slow convergence and requires problem structure to perform well. Thus, we design a second algorithm, LPQL, which learns the well-performing and more general Lagrange policy for multi-action RMABs by learning to minimize the Lagrange bound through a variant of Q-learning. To ensure fast convergence, we take an approximation strategy that enables learning on a single timescale, then give a guarantee relating the approximations precision to an upper bound of LPQLs return as $trightarrow{}infty$. Finally, we show that our approaches always outperform baselines across multiple settings, including one derived from real-world medication adherence data.
We propose a generalization of the best arm identification problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB) to the setting where every pull of an arm is associated with delayed feedback. The delay in feedback increases the effective sample complexity of standard algorithms, but can be offset if we have access to partial feedback received before a pull is completed. We propose a general framework to model the relationship between partial and delayed feedback, and as a special case we introduce efficient algorithms for settings where the partial feedback are biased or unbiased estimators of the delayed feedback. Additionally, we propose a novel extension of the algorithms to the parallel MAB setting where an agent can control a batch of arms. Our experiments in real-world settings, involving policy search and hyperparameter optimization in computational sustainability domains for fast charging of batteries and wildlife corridor construction, demonstrate that exploiting the structure of partial feedback can lead to significant improvements over baselines in both sequential and parallel MAB.
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