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Register a new userPlanning a Return to Normal after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Identifying Safe Contact Levels via Online Optimization
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Added by
Gianluca Bianchin
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Since the early months of 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) -- implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance -- have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We seek to identify how risk tolerance and vaccination rates impact the rate at which a population can return to pre-pandemic contact behavior. To this end, we develop a novel feedback control method for data-driven decision-making to identify optimal levels of NPIs across geographical regions in order to guarantee that hospitalizations will not exceed a given risk tolerance. Results are shown for the state of Colorado, and they suggest that: coordination in decision-making across regions is essential to maintain the daily number of hospitalizations below the desired limits; increasing risk tolerance can decrease the number of days required to discontinue NPIs, at the cost of an increased number of deaths; and if vaccination uptake is less than 70%, at most levels of risk tolerance, return to pre-pandemic contact behaviors before the early months of 2022 may newly jeopardize the healthcare system.
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In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. We develop an extension of the SEIR epidemic model that captures the effects of changes in human mobility on the spread of the disease. The parameters of our data-driven model are learned using a multitask learning approach that leverages both data on the number of deaths across a set of regions, and cellphone data on individuals mobility patterns specific to each region. We propose an optimal control problem on this data-driven model with a tractable solution provided by geometric programming. The result of this framework is a mobility-based intervention strategy that curbs the spread of the epidemic while obeying a budget on the economic cost incurred. Furthermore, in the absence of a straightforward mapping from human mobility data to economic costs, we propose a practical method by which a budget on economic losses incurred may be chosen to eliminate excess deaths due to over-utilization of hospital resources. Our results are demonstrated with numerical simulations using real data from the Philadelphia metropolitan area.
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Constrained Iterative Linear Quadratic Regulator (CILQR), a variant of ILQR, has been recently proposed for motion planning problems of autonomous vehicles to deal with constraints such as obstacle avoidance and reference tracking. However, the previous work considers either deterministic trajectories or persistent prediction for target dynamical obstacles. The other drawback is lack of generality - it requires manual weight tuning for different scenarios. In this paper, two significant improvements are achieved. Firstly, a two-stage uncertainty-aware prediction is proposed. The short-term prediction with safety guarantee based on reachability analysis is responsible for dealing with extreme maneuvers conducted by target vehicles. The long-term prediction leveraging an adaptive least square filter preserves the long-term optimality of the planned trajectory since using reachability only for long-term prediction is too pessimistic and makes the planner over-conservative. Secondly, to allow a wider coverage over different scenarios and to avoid tedious parameter tuning case by case, this paper designs a scenario-based analytical function taking the states from the ego vehicle and the target vehicle as input, and carrying weights of a cost function as output. It allows the ego vehicle to execute multiple behaviors (such as lane-keeping and overtaking) under a single planner. We demonstrate safety, effectiveness, and real-time performance of the proposed planner in simulations.
Testing for the infected cases is one of the most important mechanisms to control an epidemic. It enables to isolate the detected infected individuals, thereby limiting the disease transmission to the susceptible population. However, despite the significance of testing policies, the recent literature on the subject lacks a control-theoretic perspective. In this work, an epidemic model that incorporates the testing rate as a control input is presented. The proposed model differentiates the undetected infected from the detected infected cases, who are assumed to be removed from the disease spreading process in the population. First, the model is estimated and validated for COVID-19 data in France. Then, two testing policies are proposed, the so-called best-effort strategy for testing (BEST) and constant optimal strategy for testing (COST). The BEST policy is a suppression strategy that provides a lower bound on the testing rate such that the epidemic switches from a spreading to a non-spreading state. The COST policy is a mitigation strategy that provides an optimal value of testing rate that minimizes the peak value of the infected population when the total stockpile of tests is limited. Both testing policies are evaluated by predicting the number of active intensive care unit (ICU) cases and the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19.
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