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Register a new userAdaptive importance sampling for seismic fragility curve estimation
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As part of Probabilistic Risk Assessment studies, it is necessary to study the fragility of mechanical and civil engineered structures when subjected to seismic loads. This risk can be measured with fragility curves, which express the probability of failure of the structure conditionally to a seismic intensity measure. The estimation of fragility curves relies on time-consuming numerical simulations, so that careful experimental design is required in order to gain the maximum information on the structures fragility with a limited number of code evaluations. We propose and implement an active learning methodology based on adaptive importance sampling in order to reduce the variance of the training loss. The efficiency of the proposed method in terms of bias, standard deviation and prediction interval coverage are theoretically and numerically characterized.
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We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling algorithm which incorporates Stein variational gradient decent algorithm (SVGD) with importance sampling (IS). Our algorithm leverages the nonparametric transforms in SVGD to iteratively decrease the KL divergence between our importance proposal and the target distribution. The advantages of this algorithm are twofold: first, our algorithm turns SVGD into a standard IS algorithm, allowing us to use standard diagnostic and analytic tools of IS to evaluate and interpret the results; second, we do not restrict the choice of our importance proposal to predefined distribution families like traditional (adaptive) IS methods. Empirical experiments demonstrate that our algorithm performs well on evaluating partition functions of restricted Boltzmann machines and testing likelihood of variational auto-encoders.
We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such settings by using stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. This approach is far more efficient than traditional marginal likelihood estimation techniques such as nested sampling and annealed importance sampling due to its use of mini-batches to approximate the likelihood. Stability of the estimates is provided by an adaptive annealing schedule. The resulting stochastic gradient annealed importance sampling (SGAIS) technique, which is the key contribution of our paper, enables us to estimate the marginal likelihood of a number of models considerably faster than traditional approaches, with no noticeable loss of accuracy. An important benefit of our approach is that the marginal likelihood is calculated in an online fashion as data becomes available, allowing the estimates to be used for applications such as online weighted model combination.
Monte Carlo methods represent the de facto standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use simpler proposal probability densities to draw candidate samples. The performance of any such method is strictly related to the specification of the proposal distribution, such that unfortunate choices easily wreak havoc on the resulting estimators. In this work, we introduce a layered (i.e., hierarchical) procedure to generate samples employed within a Monte Carlo scheme. This approach ensures that an appropriate equivalent proposal density is always obtained automatically (thus eliminating the risk of a catastrophic performance), although at the expense of a moderate increase in the complexity. Furthermore, we provide a general unified importance sampling (IS) framework, where multiple proposal densities are employed and several IS schemes are introduced by applying the so-called deterministic mixture approach. Finally, given these schemes, we also propose a novel class of adaptive importance samplers using a population of proposals, where the adaptation is driven by independent parallel or interacting Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains. The resulting algorithms efficiently combine the benefits of both IS and MCMC methods.
Classification has been a major task for building intelligent systems as it enables decision-making under uncertainty. Classifier design aims at building models from training data for representing feature-label distributions--either explicitly or implicitly. In many scientific or clinical settings, training data are typically limited, which makes designing accurate classifiers and evaluating their classification error extremely challenging. While transfer learning (TL) can alleviate this issue by incorporating data from relevant source domains to improve learning in a different target domain, it has received little attention for performance assessment, notably in error estimation. In this paper, we fill this gap by investigating knowledge transferability in the context of classification error estimation within a Bayesian paradigm. We introduce a novel class of Bayesian minimum mean-square error (MMSE) estimators for optimal Bayesian transfer learning (OBTL), which enables rigorous evaluation of classification error under uncertainty in a small-sample setting. Using Monte Carlo importance sampling, we employ the proposed estimator to evaluate the classification accuracy of a broad family of classifiers that span diverse learning capabilities. Experimental results based on both synthetic data as well as real-world RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data show that our proposed OBTL error estimation scheme clearly outperforms standard error estimators, especially in a small-sample setting, by tapping into the data from other relevant domains.
Game-theoretic attribution techniques based on Shapley values are used extensively to interpret black-box machine learning models, but their exact calculation is generally NP-hard, requiring approximation methods for non-trivial models. As the computation of Shapley values can be expressed as a summation over a set of permutations, a common approach is to sample a subset of these permutations for approximation. Unfortunately, standard Monte Carlo sampling methods can exhibit slow convergence, and more sophisticated quasi Monte Carlo methods are not well defined on the space of permutations. To address this, we investigate new approaches based on two classes of approximation methods and compare them empirically. First, we demonstrate quadrature techniques in a RKHS containing functions of permutations, using the Mallows kernel to obtain explicit convergence rates of $O(1/n)$, improving on $O(1/sqrt{n})$ for plain Monte Carlo. The RKHS perspective also leads to quasi Monte Carlo type error bounds, with a tractable discrepancy measure defined on permutations. Second, we exploit connections between the hypersphere $mathbb{S}^{d-2}$ and permutations to create practical algorithms for generating permutation samples with good properties. Experiments show the above techniques provide significant improvements for Shapley value estimates over existing methods, converging to a smaller RMSE in the same number of model evaluations.
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