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Register a new userRobust Importance Sampling for Error Estimation in the Context of Optimal Bayesian Transfer Learning
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Classification has been a major task for building intelligent systems as it enables decision-making under uncertainty. Classifier design aims at building models from training data for representing feature-label distributions--either explicitly or implicitly. In many scientific or clinical settings, training data are typically limited, which makes designing accurate classifiers and evaluating their classification error extremely challenging. While transfer learning (TL) can alleviate this issue by incorporating data from relevant source domains to improve learning in a different target domain, it has received little attention for performance assessment, notably in error estimation. In this paper, we fill this gap by investigating knowledge transferability in the context of classification error estimation within a Bayesian paradigm. We introduce a novel class of Bayesian minimum mean-square error (MMSE) estimators for optimal Bayesian transfer learning (OBTL), which enables rigorous evaluation of classification error under uncertainty in a small-sample setting. Using Monte Carlo importance sampling, we employ the proposed estimator to evaluate the classification accuracy of a broad family of classifiers that span diverse learning capabilities. Experimental results based on both synthetic data as well as real-world RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data show that our proposed OBTL error estimation scheme clearly outperforms standard error estimators, especially in a small-sample setting, by tapping into the data from other relevant domains.
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As part of Probabilistic Risk Assessment studies, it is necessary to study the fragility of mechanical and civil engineered structures when subjected to seismic loads. This risk can be measured with fragility curves, which express the probability of failure of the structure conditionally to a seismic intensity measure. The estimation of fragility curves relies on time-consuming numerical simulations, so that careful experimental design is required in order to gain the maximum information on the structures fragility with a limited number of code evaluations. We propose and implement an active learning methodology based on adaptive importance sampling in order to reduce the variance of the training loss. The efficiency of the proposed method in terms of bias, standard deviation and prediction interval coverage are theoretically and numerically characterized.
We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such settings by using stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. This approach is far more efficient than traditional marginal likelihood estimation techniques such as nested sampling and annealed importance sampling due to its use of mini-batches to approximate the likelihood. Stability of the estimates is provided by an adaptive annealing schedule. The resulting stochastic gradient annealed importance sampling (SGAIS) technique, which is the key contribution of our paper, enables us to estimate the marginal likelihood of a number of models considerably faster than traditional approaches, with no noticeable loss of accuracy. An important benefit of our approach is that the marginal likelihood is calculated in an online fashion as data becomes available, allowing the estimates to be used for applications such as online weighted model combination.
Federated learning involves a mixture of centralized and decentralized processing tasks, where a server regularly selects a sample of the agents and these in turn sample their local data to compute stochastic gradients for their learning updates. This process runs continually. The sampling of both agents and data is generally uniform; however, in this work we consider non-uniform sampling. We derive optimal importance sampling strategies for both agent and data selection and show that non-uniform sampling without replacement improves the performance of the original FedAvg algorithm. We run experiments on a regression and classification problem to illustrate the theoretical results.
Bayesian network structure learning algorithms with limited data are being used in domains such as systems biology and neuroscience to gain insight into the underlying processes that produce observed data. Learning reliable networks from limited data is difficult, therefore transfer learning can improve the robustness of learned networks by leveraging data from related tasks. Existing transfer learning algorithms for Bayesian network structure learning give a single maximum a posteriori estimate of network models. Yet, many other models may be equally likely, and so a more informative result is provided by Bayesian structure discovery. Bayesian structure discovery algorithms estimate posterior probabilities of structural features, such as edges. We present transfer learning for Bayesian structure discovery which allows us to explore the shared and unique structural features among related tasks. Efficient computation requires that our transfer learning objective factors into local calculations, which we prove is given by a broad class of transfer biases. Theoretically, we show the efficiency of our approach. Empirically, we show that compared to single task learning, transfer learning is better able to positively identify true edges. We apply the method to whole-brain neuroimaging data.
Machine learning models have traditionally been developed under the assumption that the training and test distributions match exactly. However, recent success in few-shot learning and related problems are encouraging signs that these models can be adapted to more realistic settings where train and test distributions differ. Unfortunately, there is severely limited theoretical support for these algorithms and little is known about the difficulty of these problems. In this work, we provide novel information-theoretic lower-bounds on minimax rates of convergence for algorithms that are trained on data from multiple sources and tested on novel data. Our bounds depend intuitively on the information shared between sources of data, and characterize the difficulty of learning in this setting for arbitrary algorithms. We demonstrate these bounds on a hierarchical Bayesian model of meta-learning, computing both upper and lower bounds on parameter estimation via maximum-a-posteriori inference.
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