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Register a new userA C`adl`ag Rough Path Foundation for Robust Finance
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Using rough path theory, we provide a pathwise foundation for stochastic It^o integration, which covers most commonly applied trading strategies and mathematical models of financial markets, including those under Knightian uncertainty. To this end, we introduce the so-called Property (RIE) for c`adl`ag paths, which is shown to imply the existence of a c`adl`ag rough path and of quadratic variation in the sense of Follmer. We prove that the corresponding rough integrals exist as limits of left-point Riemann sums along a suitable sequence of partitions. This allows one to treat integrands of non-gradient type, and gives access to the powerful stability estimates of rough path theory. Additionally, we verify that (path-dependent) functionally generated trading strategies and Covers universal portfolio are admissible integrands, and that Property (RIE) is satisfied by both (Young) semimartingales and typical price paths.
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We investigate rough differential equations with a time-dependent reflecting lower barrier, where both the driving (rough) path and the barrier itself may have jumps. Assuming the driving signals allow for Young integration, we provide existence, uniqueness and stability results. When the driving signal is a c`adl`ag $p$-rough path for $p in [2,3)$, we establish existence to general reflected rough differential equations, as well as uniqueness in the one-dimensional case.
Based on a rough path foundation, we develop a model-free approach to stochastic portfolio theory (SPT). Our approach allows to handle significantly more general portfolios compared to previous model-free approaches based on Follmer integration. Without the assumption of any underlying probabilistic model, we prove pathwise Master formulae analogous to those of classical SPT, describing the growth of wealth processes associated to functionally generated portfolios relative to the market portfolio. We show that the appropriately scaled asymptotic growth rate of a far reaching generalization of Covers universal portfolio based on controlled paths coincides with that of the best retrospectively chosen portfolio within this class. We provide several novel results concerning rough integration, and highlight the advantages of the rough path approach by considering (non-functionally generated) log-optimal portfolios in an ergodic It^o diffusion setting.
Using Dupires notion of vertical derivative, we provide a functional (path-dependent) extension of the It^os formula of Gozzi and Russo (2006) that applies to C^{0,1}-functions of continuous weak Dirichlet processes. It is motivated and illustrated by its applications to the hedging or superhedging problems of path-dependent options in mathematical finance, in particular in the case of model uncertainty
We show that every $mathbb{R}^d$-valued Sobolev path with regularity $alpha$ and integrability $p$ can be lifted to a Sobolev rough path provided $alpha < 1/p<1/3$. The novelty of our approach is its use of ideas underlying Hairers reconstruction theorem generalized to a framework allowing for Sobolev models and Sobolev modelled distributions. Moreover, we show that the corresponding lifting map is locally Lipschitz continuous with respect to the inhomogeneous Sobolev metric.
Empirical risk minimization over classes functions that are bounded for some version of the variation norm has a long history, starting with Total Variation Denoising (Rudin et al., 1992), and has been considered by several recent articles, in particular Fang et al., 2019 and van der Laan, 2015. In this article, we consider empirical risk minimization over the class $mathcal{F}_d$ of c`adl`ag functions over $[0,1]^d$ with bounded sectional variation norm (also called Hardy-Krause variation). We show how a certain representation of functions in $mathcal{F}_d$ allows to bound the bracketing entropy of sieves of $mathcal{F}_d$, and therefore derive rates of convergence in nonparametric function estimation. Specifically, for sieves whose growth is controlled by some rate $a_n$, we show that the empirical risk minimizer has rate of convergence $O_P(n^{-1/3} (log n)^{2(d-1)/3} a_n)$. Remarkably, the dimension only affects the rate in $n$ through the logarithmic factor, making this method especially appropriate for high dimensional problems. In particular, we show that in the case of nonparametric regression over sieves of c`adl`ag functions with bounded sectional variation norm, this upper bound on the rate of convergence holds for least-squares estimators, under the random design, sub-exponential errors setting.
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