No Arabic abstract
Recently equal risk pricing, a framework for fair derivative pricing, was extended to consider dynamic risk measures. However, all current implementations either employ a static risk measure that violates time consistency, or are based on traditional dynamic programming solution schemes that are impracticable in problems with a large number of underlying assets (due to the curse of dimensionality) or with incomplete asset dynamics information. In this paper, we extend for the first time a famous off-policy deterministic actor-critic deep reinforcement learning (ACRL) algorithm to the problem of solving a risk averse Markov decision process that models risk using a time consistent recursive expectile risk measure. This new ACRL algorithm allows us to identify high quality time consistent hedging policies (and equal risk prices) for options, such as basket options, that cannot be handled using traditional methods, or in context where only historical trajectories of the underlying assets are available. Our numerical experiments, which involve both a simple vanilla option and a more exotic basket option, confirm that the new ACRL algorithm can produce 1) in simple environments, nearly optimal hedging policies, and highly accurate prices, simultaneously for a range of maturities 2) in complex environments, good quality policies and prices using reasonable amount of computing resources; and 3) overall, hedging strategies that actually outperform the strategies produced using static risk measures when the risk is evaluated at later points of time.
In this paper, we consider the problem of equal risk pricing and hedging in which the fair price of an option is the price that exposes both sides of the contract to the same level of risk. Focusing for the first time on the context where risk is measured according to convex risk measures, we establish that the problem reduces to solving independently the writer and the buyers hedging problem with zero initial capital. By further imposing that the risk measures decompose in a way that satisfies a Markovian property, we provide dynamic programming equations that can be used to solve the hedging problems for both the case of European and American options. All of our results are general enough to accommodate situations where the risk is measured according to a worst-case risk measure as is typically done in robust optimization. Our numerical study illustrates the advantages of equal risk pricing over schemes that only account for a single party, pricing based on quadratic hedging (i.e. $epsilon$-arbitrage pricing), or pricing based on a fixed equivalent martingale measure (i.e. Black-Scholes pricing). In particular, the numerical results confirm that when employing an equal risk price both the writer and the buyer end up being exposed to risks that are more similar and on average smaller than what they would experience with the other approaches.
This paper gives an overview of the theory of dynamic convex risk measures for random variables in discrete time setting. We summarize robust representation results of conditional convex risk measures, and we characterize various time consistency properties of dynamic risk measures in terms of acceptance sets, penalty functions, and by supermartingale properties of risk processes and penalty functions.
This paper approaches the definition and properties of dynamic convex risk measures through the notion of a family of concave valuation operators satisfying certain simple and credible axioms. Exploring these in the simplest context of a finite time set and finite sample space, we find natural risk-transfer and time-consistency properties for a firm seeking to spread its risk across a group of subsidiaries.
Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties |volatility and dividend policy| of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time, but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.
We develop a model for indifference pricing in derivatives markets where price quotes have bid-ask spreads and finite quantities. The model quantifies the dependence of the prices and hedging portfolios on an investors beliefs, risk preferences and financial position as well as on the price quotes. Computational techniques of convex optimisation allow for fast computation of the hedging portfolios and prices as well as sensitivities with respect to various model parameters. We illustrate the techniques by pricing and hedging of exotic derivatives on S&P index using call and put options, forward contracts and cash as the hedging instruments. The optimized static hedges provide good approximations of the options payouts and the spreads between indifference selling and buying prices are quite narrow as compared with the spread between super- and subhedging prices.