Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userMultivariate self-exciting jump processes with applications to financial data
100
0
0.0
(
0
)
Added by
Heidar Eyjolfsson
Publication date
2021
fields
Financial
and research's language is
English
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
The paper discusses multivariate self- and cross-exciting processes. We define a class of multivariate point processes via their corresponding stochastic intensity processes that are driven by stochastic jumps. Essentially, there is a jump in an intensity process whenever the corresponding point process records an event. An attribute of our modelling class is that not only a jump is recorded at each instance, but also its magnitude. This allows large jumps to influence the intensity to a larger degree than smaller jumps. We give conditions which guarantee that the process is stable, in the sense that it does not explode, and provide a detailed discussion on when the subclass of linear models is stable. Finally, we fit our model to financial time series data from the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices respectively. We conclude that a nonlinear variant from our modelling class fits the data best. This supports the observation that in times of crises (high intensity) jumps tend to arrive in clusters, whereas there are typically longer times between jumps when the markets are calmer. We moreover observe more variability in jump sizes when the intensity is high, than when it is low.
rate research
Read More
We propose a new multifractional stochastic process which allows for self-exciting behavior, similar to what can be seen for example in earthquakes and other self-organizing phenomena. The process can be seen as an extension of a multifractional Brownian motion, where the Hurst function is dependent on the past of the process. We define this through a stochastic Volterra equation, and we prove existence and uniqueness of this equation, as well as give bounds on the p-order moments, for all p>=1. We show convergence of an Euler-Maruyama scheme for the process, and also give the rate of convergence, which is depending on the self-exciting dynamics of the process. Moreover, we discuss different applications of this process, and give examples of different functions to model self-exciting behavior.
This paper describes the structure of solutions to Kolmogorovs equations for nonhomogeneous jump Markov processes and applications of these results to control of jump stochastic systems. These equations were studied by Feller (1940), who clarified in 1945 in the errata to that paper that some of its results covered only nonexplosive Markov processes. We present the results for possibly explosive Markov processes. The paper is based on the invited talk presented by the authors at the International Conference dedicated to the 200th anniversary of the birth of P. L.~Chebyshev.
Recently, to account for low-frequency market dynamics, several volatility models, employing high-frequency financial data, have been developed. However, in financial markets, we often observe that financial volatility processes depend on economic states, so they have a state heterogeneous structure. In this paper, to study state heterogeneous market dynamics based on high-frequency data, we introduce a novel volatility model based on a continuous Ito diffusion process whose intraday instantaneous volatility process evolves depending on the exogenous state variable, as well as its integrated volatility. We call it the state heterogeneous GARCH-Ito (SG-Ito) model. We suggest a quasi-likelihood estimation procedure with the realized volatility proxy and establish its asymptotic behaviors. Moreover, to test the low-frequency state heterogeneity, we develop a Wald test-type hypothesis testing procedure. The results of empirical studies suggest the existence of leverage, investor attention, market illiquidity, stock market comovement, and post-holiday effect in S&P 500 index volatility.
We develop a new Monte Carlo variance reduction method to estimate the expectation of two commonly encountered path-dependent functionals: first-passage times and occupation times of sets. The method is based on a recursive approximation of the first-passage time probability and expected occupation time of sets of a Levy bridge process that relies in part on a randomisation of the time parameter. We establish this recursion for general Levy processes and derive its explicit form for mixed-exponential jump-diffusions, a dense subclass (in the sense of weak approximation) of Levy processes, which includes Brownian motion with drift, Kous double-exponential model and hyper-exponential jump-diffusion models. We present a highly accurate numerical realisation and derive error estimates. By way of illustration the method is applied to the valuation of range accruals and barrier options under exponential Levy models and Bates-type stochastic volatility models with exponential jumps. Compared with standard Monte Carlo methods, we find that the method is significantly more efficient.
We extend the Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula to non-degenerate jump diffusions and payoff functions depending on the process at multiple future times. In the spirit of Fournie et al [13] and Davis and Johansson [9] this can improve Monte Carlo numerics for stochastic volatility models with jumps. To this end one needs so-called Malliavin weights and we give explicit formulae valid in presence of jumps: (a) In a non-degenerate situation, the extended BEL formula represents possible Malliavin weights as Ito integrals with explicit integrands; (b) in a hypoelliptic setting we review work of Arnaudon and Thalmaier [1] and also find explicit weights, now involving the Malliavin covariance matrix, but still straight-forward to implement. (This is in contrast to recent work by Forster, Lutkebohmert and Teichmann where weights are constructed as anticipating Skorohod integrals.) We give some financial examples covered by (b) but note that most practical cases of poor Monte Carlo performance, Digital Cliquet contracts for instance, can be dealt with by the extended BEL formula and hence without any reliance on Malliavin calculus at all. We then discuss some of the approximations, often ignored in the literature, needed to justify the use of the Malliavin weights in the context of standard jump diffusion models. Finally, as all this is meant to improve numerics, we give some numerical results with focus on Cliquets under the Heston model with jumps.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
