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Register a new user#StayHome or #Marathon? Social Media Enhanced Pandemic Surveillance on Spatial-temporal Dynamic Graphs
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Yichao Zhou
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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COVID-19 has caused lasting damage to almost every domain in public health, society, and economy. To monitor the pandemic trend, existing studies rely on the aggregation of traditional statistical models and epidemic spread theory. In other words, historical statistics of COVID-19, as well as the population mobility data, become the essential knowledge for monitoring the pandemic trend. However, these solutions can barely provide precise prediction and satisfactory explanations on the long-term disease surveillance while the ubiquitous social media resources can be the key enabler for solving this problem. For example, serious discussions may occur on social media before and after some breaking events take place. These events, such as marathon and parade, may impact the spread of the virus. To take advantage of the social media data, we propose a novel framework, Social Media enhAnced pandemic suRveillance Technique (SMART), which is composed of two modules: (i) information extraction module to construct heterogeneous knowledge graphs based on the extracted events and relationships among them; (ii) time series prediction module to provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of the confirmed cases and fatality at the state-level in the United States and to discover risk factors for COVID-19 interventions. Extensive experiments show that our method largely outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines by 7.3% and 7.4% in confirmed case/fatality prediction, respectively.
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Companies and financial investors are paying increasing attention to social consciousness in developing their corporate strategies and making investment decisions to support a sustainable economy for the future. Public discussion on incidents and events -- controversies -- of companies can provide valuable insights on how well the company operates with regards to social consciousness and indicate the companys overall operational capability. However, there are challenges in evaluating the degree of a companys social consciousness and environmental sustainability due to the lack of systematic data. We introduce a system that utilizes Twitter data to detect and monitor controversial events and show their impact on market volatility. In our study, controversial events are identified from clustered tweets that share the same 5W terms and sentiment polarities of these clusters. Credible news links inside the event tweets are used to validate the truth of the event. A case study on the Starbucks Philadelphia arrests shows that this method can provide the desired functionality.
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A key challenge in mining social media data streams is to identify events which are actively discussed by a group of people in a specific local or global area. Such events are useful for early warning for accident, protest, election or breaking news. However, neither the list of events nor the resolution of both event time and space is fixed or known beforehand. In this work, we propose an online spatio-temporal event detection system using social media that is able to detect events at different time and space resolutions. First, to address the challenge related to the unknown spatial resolution of events, a quad-tree method is exploited in order to split the geographical space into multiscale regions based on the density of social media data. Then, a statistical unsupervised approach is performed that involves Poisson distribution and a smoothing method for highlighting regions with unexpected density of social posts. Further, event duration is precisely estimated by merging events happening in the same region at consecutive time intervals. A post processing stage is introduced to filter out events that are spam, fake or wrong. Finally, we incorporate simple semantics by using social media entities to assess the integrity, and accuracy of detected events. The proposed method is evaluated using different social media datasets: Twitter and Flickr for different cities: Melbourne, London, Paris and New York. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we compare our results with two baseline algorithms based on fixed split of geographical space and clustering method. For performance evaluation, we manually compute recall and precision. We also propose a new quality measure named strength index, which automatically measures how accurate the reported event is.
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