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Register a new userBayesian Analysis of Quasar Lightcurves with a Running Optimal Average: New Time Delay Measurements of COSMOGRAIL Gravitationally Lensed Quasars
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We present a new method of modelling time-series data based on the running optimal average (ROA). By identifying the effective number of parameters for the ROA model, in terms of the shape and width of its window function and the times and accuracies of the data, we enable a Bayesian analysis, optimising the ROA width, along with other model parameters, by minimising the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and sampling joint posterior parameter distributions using MCMC methods. For analysis of quasar lightcurves, our implementation of ROA modelling can inter-calibrate lightcurve data from different telescopes, estimate the shape and thus the power-density spectrum of the lightcurve, and measure time delays among lightcurves at different wavelengths or from different images of a lensed quasar. Our noise model implements a robust treatment of outliers and error-bar adjustments to account for additional variance or poorly-quantified uncertainties. Tests with simulated data validate the parameter uncertainty estimates. We compare ROA delay measurements with results from cross-correlation and from JAVELIN, which models lightcurves with a prior on the power-density spectrum. We analyse published COSMOGRAIL lightcurves of multi-lensed quasar lightcurves and present the resulting measurements of the inter-image time delays and detection of microlensing effects.
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We present V and R photometry of the gravitationally lensed quasars WFI2033-4723 and HE0047-1756. The data were taken by the MiNDSTEp collaboration with the 1.54 m Danish telescope at the ESO La Silla observatory from 2008 to 2012. Differential photometry has been carried out using the image subtraction method as implemented in the HOTPAnTS package, additionally using GALFIT for quasar photometry. The quasar WFI2033-4723 showed brightness variations of order 0.5 mag in V and R during the campaign. The two lensed components of quasar HE0047-1756 varied by 0.2-0.3 mag within five years. We provide, for the first time, an estimate of the time delay of component B with respect to A of $Delta t= 7.6pm1.8$ days for this object. We also find evidence for a secular evolution of the magnitude difference between components A and B in both filters, which we explain as due to a long-duration microlensing event. Finally we find that both quasars WFI2033-4723 and HE0047-1756 become bluer when brighter, which is consistent with previous studies.
The paper has been withdrawn because double checking and comparison with other data sets after the original submission showed that a broken R-band filter at the Maidanak telescope had affected our quasar monitoring observations in the years 2004 and 2005. They had led to partially spurious measurements, hence our original analysis and conclusions are not reliable.
We present 426 epochs of optical monitoring data spanning 1000 days from December 2003 to June 2006 for the gravitationally lensed quasar SDSS J1004+4112. The time delay between the A and B images is 38.4+/-2.0 days in the expected sense that B leads A and the overall time ordering is C-B-A-D-E. The measured delay invalidates all published models. The models failed because they neglected the perturbations from cluster member galaxies. Models including the galaxies can fit the data well, but strong conclusions about the cluster mass distribution should await the measurement of the longer, and less substructure sensitive, delays of the C and D images. For these images, a CB delay of 681+/-15 days is plausible but requires confirmation, while CB and AD delays of >560 days and > 800 days are required. We clearly detect microlensing of the A/B images, with the delay-corrected flux ratios changing from B-A=0.44+/-0.01 mag in the first season to 0.29+/-0.01 mag in the second season and 0.32+/-0.01 mag in the third season.
When the light from a distant object passes very near to a foreground galaxy or cluster, gravitational lensing can cause it to appear as multiple images on the sky. If the source is variable, it can be used to constrain the cosmic expansion rate and dark energy models. Achieving these cosmological goals requires many lensed transients with precise time delay measurements. Lensed supernovae (SN) are attractive for this purpose because they have relatively simple photometric behavior, with well-understood light curve shapes and colours $-$ in contrast to the stochastic variation of quasars. Here we report the discovery of a multiply-imaged supernova, AT2016jka (SN Requiem). It appeared in an evolved galaxy at $z=1.95$, gravitationally lensed by a foreground galaxy cluster. It is likely a Type Ia supernova $-$ the explosion of a low-mass stellar remnant, whose light curve can be used to measure cosmic distances. In archival Hubble Space Telescope imaging, three lensed images of the supernova are detected with relative time delays of $<$200 days. We predict a fourth image will appear close to the cluster core in the year 2037$pm$2. Observation of the fourth image could provide a time delay precision of $approx$7 days, $<1%$ of the extraordinary 20 year baseline. The SN classification and the predicted reappearance time could be improved with further lens modelling and a comprehensive analysis of systematic uncertainties.
This paper presents optical R-band light curves and the time delay of the doubly imaged gravitationally lensed quasar SDSS J1001+5027 at a redshift of 1.838. We have observed this target for more than six years, between March 2005 and July 2011, using the 1.2-m Mercator Telescope, the 1.5-m telescope of the Maidanak Observatory, and the 2-m Himalayan Chandra Telescope. Our resulting light curves are composed of 443 independent epochs, and show strong intrinsic quasar variability, with an amplitude of the order of 0.2 magnitudes. From this data, we measure the time delay using five different methods, all relying on distinct approaches. One of these techniques is a new development presented in this paper. All our time-delay measurements are perfectly compatible. By combining them, we conclude that image A is leading B by 119.3 +/- 3.3 days (1 sigma, 2.8% uncertainty), including systematic errors. It has been shown recently that such accurate time-delay measurements offer a highly complementary probe of dark energy and spatial curvature, as they independently constrain the Hubble constant. The next mandatory step towards using SDSS J1001+5027 in this context will be the measurement of the velocity dispersion of the lensing galaxy, in combination with deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging.
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