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Register a new userBootstrapping Generalization of Process Models Discovered From Event Data
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Artem Polyvyanyy
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Process mining studies ways to derive value from process executions recorded in event logs of IT-systems, with process discovery the task of inferring a process model for an event log emitted by some unknown system. One quality criterion for discovered process models is generalization. Generalization seeks to quantify how well the discovered model describes future executions of the system, and is perhaps the least understood quality criterion in process mining. The lack of understanding is primarily a consequence of generalization seeking to measure properties over the entire future behavior of the system, when the only available sample of behavior is that provided by the event log itself. In this paper, we draw inspiration from computational statistics, and employ a bootstrap approach to estimate properties of a population based on a sample. Specifically, we define an estimator of the models generalization based on the event log it was discovered from, and then use bootstrapping to measure the generalization of the model with respect to the system, and its statistical significance. Experiments demonstrate the feasibility of the approach in industrial settings.
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Process mining is a research area focusing on the design of algorithms that can automatically provide insights into business processes by analysing historic process execution data, known as event logs. Among the most popular algorithms are those for automated process discovery, whose ultimate goal is to generate the best process model that summarizes the behaviour recorded in the input event log. Over the past decade, several process discovery algorithms have been proposed but, until now, this research was driven by the implicit assumption that a better algorithm would discover better process models, no matter the characteristics of the input event log. In this paper, we take a step back and question that assumption. Specifically, we investigate what are the relations between measures capturing characteristics of the input event log and the quality of the discovered process models. To this end, we review the state-of-the-art process complexity measures, propose a new process complexity measure based on graph entropy, and analyze this set of complexity measures on an extensive collection of event logs and corresponding automatically discovered process models. Our analysis shows that many process complexity measures correlate with the quality of the discovered process models, demonstrating the potential of using complexity measures as predictors for the quality of process models discovered with state-of-the-art process discovery algorithms. This finding is important for process mining research, as it highlights that not only algorithms, but also connections between input data and output quality should be studied.
Computational and cognitive studies of event understanding suggest that identifying, comprehending, and predicting events depend on having structured representations of a sequence of events and on conceptualizing (abstracting) its components into (soft) event categories. Thus, knowledge about a known process such as buying a car can be used in the context of a new but analogous process such as buying a house. Nevertheless, most event understanding work in NLP is still at the ground level and does not consider abstraction. In this paper, we propose an Analogous Process Structure Induction APSI framework, which leverages analogies among processes and conceptualization of sub-event instances to predict the whole sub-event sequence of previously unseen open-domain processes. As our experiments and analysis indicate, APSI supports the generation of meaningful sub-event sequences for unseen processes and can help predict missing events.
Causality is crucial to understanding the mechanisms behind complex systems and making decisions that lead to intended outcomes. Event sequence data is widely collected from many real-world processes, such as electronic health records, web clickstreams, and financial transactions, which transmit a great deal of information reflecting the causal relations among event types. Unfortunately, recovering causalities from observational event sequences is challenging, as the heterogeneous and high-dimensional event variables are often connected to rather complex underlying event excitation mechanisms that are hard to infer from limited observations. Many existing automated causal analysis techniques suffer from poor explainability and fail to include an adequate amount of human knowledge. In this paper, we introduce a visual analytics method for recovering causalities in event sequence data. We extend the Granger causality analysis algorithm on Hawkes processes to incorporate user feedback into causal model refinement. The visualization system includes an interactive causal analysis framework that supports bottom-up causal exploration, iterative causal verification and refinement, and causal comparison through a set of novel visualizations and interactions. We report two forms of evaluation: a quantitative evaluation of the model improvements resulting from the user-feedback mechanism, and a qualitative evaluation through case studies in different application domains to demonstrate the usefulness of the system.
We create an artificial system of agents (attention-based neural networks) which selectively exchange messages with each-other in order to study the emergence of memetic evolution and how memetic evolutionary pressures interact with genetic evolution of the network weights. We observe that the ability of agents to exert selection pressures on each-other is essential for memetic evolution to bootstrap itself into a state which has both high-fidelity replication of memes, as well as continuing production of new memes over time. However, in this system there is very little interaction between this memetic ecology and underlying tasks driving individual fitness - the emergent meme layer appears to be neither helpful nor harmful to agents ability to learn to solve tasks. Sourcecode for these experiments is available at https://github.com/GoodAI/memes
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently shown to be powerful tools for representing and analyzing graph data. So far GNNs is becoming an increasingly critical role in software engineering including program analysis, type inference, and code representation. In this paper, we introduce GraphGallery, a platform for fast benchmarking and easy development of GNNs based software. GraphGallery is an easy-to-use platform that allows developers to automatically deploy GNNs even with less domain-specific knowledge. It offers a set of implementations of common GNN models based on mainstream deep learning frameworks. In addition, existing GNNs toolboxes such as PyG and DGL can be easily incorporated into the platform. Experiments demonstrate the reliability of implementations and superiority in fast coding. The official source code of GraphGallery is available at https://github.com/EdisonLeeeee/GraphGallery and a demo video can be found at https://youtu.be/mv7Zs1YeaYo.
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