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Register a new userOnline Multi-Agent Forecasting with Interpretable Collaborative Graph Neural Network
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Added by
Maosen Li
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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This paper considers predicting future statuses of multiple agents in an online fashion by exploiting dynamic interactions in the system. We propose a novel collaborative prediction unit (CoPU), which aggregates the predictions from multiple collaborative predictors according to a collaborative graph. Each collaborative predictor is trained to predict the status of an agent by considering the impact of another agent. The edge weights of the collaborative graph reflect the importance of each predictor. The collaborative graph is adjusted online by multiplicative update, which can be motivated by minimizing an explicit objective. With this objective, we also conduct regret analysis to indicate that, along with training, our CoPU achieves similar performance with the best individual collaborative predictor in hindsight. This theoretical interpretability distinguishes our method from many other graph networks. To progressively refine predictions, multiple CoPUs are stacked to form a collaborative graph neural network. Extensive experiments are conducted on three tasks: online simulated trajectory prediction, online human motion prediction and online traffic speed prediction, and our methods outperform state-of-the-art works on the three tasks by 28.6%, 17.4% and 21.0% on average, respectively.
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In large-scale multi-agent systems, the large number of agents and complex game relationship cause great difficulty for policy learning. Therefore, simplifying the learning process is an important research issue. In many multi-agent systems, the interactions between agents often happen locally, which means that agents neither need to coordinate with all other agents nor need to coordinate with others all the time. Traditional methods attempt to use pre-defined rules to capture the interaction relationship between agents. However, the methods cannot be directly used in a large-scale environment due to the difficulty of transforming the complex interactions between agents into rules. In this paper, we model the relationship between agents by a complete graph and propose a novel game abstraction mechanism based on two-stage attention network (G2ANet), which can indicate whether there is an interaction between two agents and the importance of the interaction. We integrate this detection mechanism into graph neural network-based multi-agent reinforcement learning for conducting game abstraction and propose two novel learning algorithms GA-Comm and GA-AC. We conduct experiments in Traffic Junction and Predator-Prey. The results indicate that the proposed methods can simplify the learning process and meanwhile get better asymptotic performance compared with state-of-the-art algorithms.
Predicting accurate future trajectories of multiple agents is essential for autonomous systems, but is challenging due to the complex agent interaction and the uncertainty in each agents future behavior. Forecasting multi-agent trajectories requires modeling two key dimensions: (1) time dimension, where we model the influence of past agent states over future states; (2) social dimension, where we model how the state of each agent affects others. Most prior methods model these two dimensions separately, e.g., first using a temporal model to summarize features over time for each agent independently and then modeling the interaction of the summarized features with a social model. This approach is suboptimal since independent feature encoding over either the time or social dimension can result in a loss of information. Instead, we would prefer a method that allows an agents state at one time to directly affect another agents state at a future time. To this end, we propose a new Transformer, AgentFormer, that jointly models the time and social dimensions. The model leverages a sequence representation of multi-agent trajectories by flattening trajectory features across time and agents. Since standard attention operations disregard the agent identity of each element in the sequence, AgentFormer uses a novel agent-aware attention mechanism that preserves agent identities by attending to elements of the same agent differently than elements of other agents. Based on AgentFormer, we propose a stochastic multi-agent trajectory prediction model that can attend to features of any agent at any previous timestep when inferring an agents future position. The latent intent of all agents is also jointly modeled, allowing the stochasticity in one agents behavior to affect other agents. Our method significantly improves the state of the art on well-established pedestrian and autonomous driving datasets.
Traffic forecasting is a core element of intelligent traffic monitoring system. Approaches based on graph neural networks have been widely used in this task to effectively capture spatial and temporal dependencies of road networks. However, these approaches can not effectively define the complicated network topology. Besides, their cascade network structures have limitations in transmitting distinct features in the time and space dimensions. In this paper, we propose a Multi-adaptive Spatiotemporal-flow Graph Neural Network (MAF-GNN) for traffic speed forecasting. MAF-GNN introduces an effective Multi-adaptive Adjacency Matrices Mechanism to capture multiple latent spatial dependencies between traffic nodes. Additionally, we propose Spatiotemporal-flow Modules aiming to further enhance feature propagation in both time and space dimensions. MAF-GNN achieves better performance than other models on two real-world datasets of public traffic network, METR-LA and PeMS-Bay, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) represent the de facto standard machine learning tool for sequence modelling, owing to their expressive power and memory. However, when dealing with large dimensional data, the corresponding exponential increase in the number of parameters imposes a computational bottleneck. The necessity to equip RNNs with the ability to deal with the curse of dimensionality, such as through the parameter compression ability inherent to tensors, has led to the development of the Tensor-Train RNN (TT-RNN). Despite achieving promising results in many applications, the full potential of the TT-RNN is yet to be explored in the context of interpretable financial modelling, a notoriously challenging task characterized by multi-modal data with low signal-to-noise ratio. To address this issue, we investigate the potential of TT-RNN in the task of financial forecasting of currencies. We show, through the analysis of TT-factors, that the physical meaning underlying tensor decomposition, enables the TT-RNN model to aid the interpretability of results, thus mitigating the notorious black-box issue associated with neural networks. Furthermore, simulation results highlight the regularization power of TT decomposition, demonstrating the superior performance of TT-RNN over its uncompressed RNN counterpart and other tensor forecasting methods.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are naturally distributed architectures for learning representations from network data. This renders them suitable candidates for decentralized tasks. In these scenarios, the underlying graph often changes with time due to link failures or topology variations, creating a mismatch between the graphs on which GNNs were trained and the ones on which they are tested. Online learning can be leveraged to retrain GNNs at testing time to overcome this issue. However, most online algorithms are centralized and usually offer guarantees only on convex problems, which GNNs rarely lead to. This paper develops the Wide and Deep GNN (WD-GNN), a novel architecture that can be updated with distributed online learning mechanisms. The WD-GNN consists of two components: the wide part is a linear graph filter and the deep part is a nonlinear GNN. At training time, the joint wide and deep architecture learns nonlinear representations from data. At testing time, the wide, linear part is retrained, while the deep, nonlinear one remains fixed. This often leads to a convex formulation. We further propose a distributed online learning algorithm that can be implemented in a decentralized setting. We also show the stability of the WD-GNN to changes of the underlying graph and analyze the convergence of the proposed online learning procedure. Experiments on movie recommendation, source localization and robot swarm control corroborate theoretical findings and show the potential of the WD-GNN for distributed online learning.
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