Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userShort-Term Load Forecasting for Smart HomeAppliances with Sequence to Sequence Learning
107
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Appliance-level load forecasting plays a critical role in residential energy management, besides having significant importance for ancillary services performed by the utilities. In this paper, we propose to use an LSTM-based sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) learning model that can capture the load profiles of appliances. We use a real dataset collected fromfour residential buildings and compare our proposed schemewith three other techniques, namely VARMA, Dilated One Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network, and an LSTM model.The results show that the proposed LSTM-based seq2seq model outperforms other techniques in terms of prediction error in most cases.
rate research
Read More
Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for efficient operation of the power sector. Predicting load at a fine granularity such as individual households or buildings is challenging due to higher volatility and uncertainty in the load. In aggregate loads such as at grids level, the inherent stochasticity and fluctuations are averaged-out, the problem becomes substantially easier. We propose an approach for short-term load forecasting at individual consumers (households) level, called Forecasting using Matrix Factorization (FMF). FMF does not use any consumers demographic or activity patterns information. Therefore, it can be applied to any locality with the readily available smart meters and weather data. We perform extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets and demonstrate that FMF significantly outperforms the computationally expensive state-of-the-art methods for this problem. We achieve up to 26.5% and 24.4 % improvement in RMSE over Regression Tree and Support Vector Machine, respectively and up to 36% and 73.2% improvement in MAPE over Random Forest and Long Short-Term Memory neural network, respectively.
We present in this paper a model for forecasting short-term power loads based on deep residual networks. The proposed model is able to integrate domain knowledge and researchers understanding of the task by virtue of different neural network building blocks. Specifically, a modified deep residual network is formulated to improve the forecast results. Further, a two-stage ensemble strategy is used to enhance the generalization capability of the proposed model. We also apply the proposed model to probabilistic load forecasting using Monte Carlo dropout. Three public datasets are used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model. Multiple test cases and comparison with existing models show that the proposed model is able to provide accurate load forecasting results and has high generalization capability.
Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) or Energy Disaggregation (ED), seeks to save energy by decomposing corresponding appliances power reading from an aggregate power reading of the whole house. It is a single channel blind source separation problem (SCBSS) and difficult prediction problem because it is unidentifiable. Recent research shows that deep learning has become a growing popularity for NILM problem. The ability of neural networks to extract load features is closely related to its depth. However, deep neural network is difficult to train because of exploding gradient, vanishing gradient and network degradation. To solve these problems, we propose a sequence to point learning framework based on bidirectional (non-casual) dilated convolution for NILM. To be more convincing, we compare our method with the state of art method, Seq2point (Zhang) directly and compare with existing algorithms indirectly via two same datasets and metrics. Experiments based on REDD and UK-DALE data sets show that our proposed approach is far superior to existing approaches in all appliances.
A convolutional sequence to sequence non-intrusive load monitoring model is proposed in this paper. Gated linear unit convolutional layers are used to extract information from the sequences of aggregate electricity consumption. Residual blocks are also introduced to refine the output of the neural network. The partially overlapped output sequences of the network are averaged to produce the final output of the model. We apply the proposed model to the REDD dataset and compare it with the convolutional sequence to point model in the literature. Results show that the proposed model is able to give satisfactory disaggregation performance for appliances with varied characteristics.
A machine learning algorithm is developed to forecast the CO2 emission intensities in electrical power grids in the Danish bidding zone DK2, distinguishing between average and marginal emissions. The analysis was done on data set comprised of a large number (473) of explanatory variables such as power production, demand, import, weather conditions etc. collected from selected neighboring zones. The number was reduced to less than 50 using both LASSO (a penalized linear regression analysis) and a forward feature selection algorithm. Three linear regression models that capture different aspects of the data (non-linearities and coupling of variables etc.) were created and combined into a final model using Softmax weighted average. Cross-validation is performed for debiasing and autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) implemented to correct the residuals, making the final model the variant with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX). The forecasts with the corresponding uncertainties are given for two time horizons, below and above six hours. Marginal emissions came up independent of any conditions in the DK2 zone, suggesting that the marginal generators are located in the neighbouring zones. The developed methodology can be applied to any bidding zone in the European electricity network without requiring detailed knowledge about the zone.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
