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Register a new userTime Series is a Special Sequence: Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction
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Added by
Liu Minhao
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Time series is a special type of sequence data, a set of observations collected at even intervals of time and ordered chronologically. Existing deep learning techniques use generic sequence models (e.g., recurrent neural network, Transformer model, or temporal convolutional network) for time series analysis, which ignore some of its unique properties. For example, the downsampling of time series data often preserves most of the information in the data, while this is not true for general sequence data such as text sequence and DNA sequence. Motivated by the above, in this paper, we propose a novel neural network architecture and apply it for the time series forecasting problem, wherein we conduct sample convolution and interaction at multiple resolutions for temporal modeling. The proposed architecture, namelySCINet, facilitates extracting features with enhanced predictability. Experimental results show that SCINet achieves significant prediction accuracy improvement over existing solutions across various real-world time series forecasting datasets. In particular, it can achieve high fore-casting accuracy for those temporal-spatial datasets without using sophisticated spatial modeling techniques. Our codes and data are presented in the supplemental material.
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Time series has wide applications in the real world and is known to be difficult to forecast. Since its statistical properties change over time, its distribution also changes temporally, which will cause severe distribution shift problem to existing methods. However, it remains unexplored to model the time series in the distribution perspective. In this paper, we term this as Temporal Covariate Shift (TCS). This paper proposes Adaptive RNNs (AdaRNN) to tackle the TCS problem by building an adaptive model that generalizes well on the unseen test data. AdaRNN is sequentially composed of two novel algorithms. First, we propose Temporal Distribution Characterization to better characterize the distribution information in the TS. Second, we propose Temporal Distribution Matching to reduce the distribution mismatch in TS to learn the adaptive TS model. AdaRNN is a general framework with flexible distribution distances integrated. Experiments on human activity recognition, air quality prediction, and financial analysis show that AdaRNN outperforms the latest methods by a classification accuracy of 2.6% and significantly reduces the RMSE by 9.0%. We also show that the temporal distribution matching algorithm can be extended in Transformer structure to boost its performance.
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Process analytics is an umbrella of data-driven techniques which includes making predictions for individual process instances or overall process models. At the instance level, various novel techniques have been recently devised, tackling next activity, remaining time, and outcome prediction. At the model level, there is a notable void. It is the ambition of this paper to fill this gap. To this end, we develop a technique to forecast the entire process model from historical event data. A forecasted model is a will-be process model representing a probable future state of the overall process. Such a forecast helps to investigate the consequences of drift and emerging bottlenecks. Our technique builds on a representation of event data as multiple time series, each capturing the evolution of a behavioural aspect of the process model, such that corresponding forecasting techniques can be applied. Our implementation demonstrates the accuracy of our technique on real-world event log data.
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