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Register a new userSimplified Belief-Dependent Reward MCTS Planning with Guaranteed Tree Consistency
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Added by
Andrey Zhitnikov
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are notoriously hard to solve. Most advanced state-of-the-art online solvers leverage ideas of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). These solvers rapidly converge to the most promising branches of the belief tree, avoiding the suboptimal sections. Most of these algorithms are designed to utilize straightforward access to the state reward and assume the belief-dependent reward is nothing but expectation over the state reward. Thus, they are inapplicable to a more general and essential setting of belief-dependent rewards. One example of such reward is differential entropy approximated using a set of weighted particles of the belief. Such an information-theoretic reward introduces a significant computational burden. In this paper, we embed the paradigm of simplification into the MCTS algorithm. In particular, we present Simplified Information-Theoretic Particle Filter Tree (SITH-PFT), a novel variant to the MCTS algorithm that considers information-theoretic rewards but avoids the need to calculate them completely. We replace the costly calculation of information-theoretic rewards with adaptive upper and lower bounds. These bounds are easy to calculate and tightened only by the demand of our algorithm. Crucially, we guarantee precisely the same belief tree and solution that would be obtained by MCTS, which explicitly calculates the original information-theoretic rewards. Our approach is general; namely, any converging to the reward bounds can be easily plugged-in to achieve substantial speedup without any loss in performance.
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Urban traffic scenarios often require a high degree of cooperation between traffic participants to ensure safety and efficiency. Observing the behavior of others, humans infer whether or not others are cooperating. This work aims to extend the capabilities of automated vehicles, enabling them to cooperate implicitly in heterogeneous environments. Continuous actions allow for arbitrary trajectories and hence are applicable to a much wider class of problems than existing cooperative approaches with discrete action spaces. Based on cooperative modeling of other agents, Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) in conjunction with Decoupled-UCT evaluates the action-values of each agent in a cooperative and decentralized way, respecting the interdependence of actions among traffic participants. The extension to continuous action spaces is addressed by incorporating novel MCTS-specific enhancements for efficient search space exploration. The proposed algorithm is evaluated under different scenarios, showing that the algorithm is able to achieve effective cooperative planning and generate solutions egocentric planning fails to identify.
In this work, we introduce a new approach for the efficient solution of autonomous decision and planning problems, with a special focus on decision making under uncertainty and belief space planning (BSP) in high-dimensional state spaces. Usually, to solve the decision problem, we identify the optimal action, according to some objective function. We claim that we can sometimes generate and solve an analogous yet simplified decision problem, which can be solved more efficiently; a wise simplification method can lead to the same action selection, or one for which the maximal loss can be guaranteed. Furthermore, such simplification is separated from the state inference, and does not compromise its accuracy, as the selected action would finally be applied on the original state. First, we present the concept for general decision problems, and provide a theoretical framework for a coherent formulation of the approach. We then practically apply these ideas to BSP problems, which can be simplified by considering a sparse approximation of the initial (Gaussian) belief. The scalable belief sparsification algorithm we provide is able to yield solutions which are guaranteed to be consistent with the original problem. We demonstrate the benefits of the approach in the solution of a highly realistic active-SLAM problem, and manage to significantly reduce computation time, with practically no loss in the quality of solution. This work is conceptual and fundamental, and holds numerous possible extensions.
Task planning in a probabilistic belief state domains allows generating complex and robust execution policies in those domains affected by state uncertainty. The performance of a task planner relies on the belief state representation. However, current belief state representation becomes easily intractable as the number of variables and execution time grows. To address this problem, we developed a novel belief state representation based on cartesian product and union operations over belief substates. These two operations and single variable assignment nodes form And-Or directed acyclic graph of Belief State (AOBS). We show how to apply actions with probabilistic outcomes and measure the probability of conditions holding over belief state. We evaluated AOBS performance in simulated forward state space exploration. We compared the size of AOBS with the size of Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) that were previously used to represent belief state. We show that AOBS representation is not only much more compact than a full belief state but it also scales better than BDD for most of the cases.
The planning domain has experienced increased interest in the formal synthesis of decision-making policies. This formal synthesis typically entails finding a policy which satisfies formal specifications in the form of some well-defined logic, such as Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) or Computation Tree Logic (CTL), among others. While such logics are very powerful and expressive in their capacity to capture desirable agent behavior, their value is limited when deriving decision-making policies which satisfy certain types of asymptotic behavior. In particular, we are interested in specifying constraints on the steady-state behavior of an agent, which captures the proportion of time an agent spends in each state as it interacts for an indefinite period of time with its environment. This is sometimes called the average or expected behavior of the agent. In this paper, we explore the steady-state planning problem of deriving a decision-making policy for an agent such that constraints on its steady-state behavior are satisfied. A linear programming solution for the general case of multichain Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is proposed and we prove that optimal solutions to the proposed programs yield stationary policies with rigorous guarantees of behavior.
High capacity end-to-end approaches for human motion (behavior) prediction have the ability to represent subtle nuances in human behavior, but struggle with robustness to out of distribution inputs and tail events. Planning-based prediction, on the other hand, can reliably output decent-but-not-great predictions: it is much more stable in the face of distribution shift (as we verify in this work), but it has high inductive bias, missing important aspects that drive human decisions, and ignoring cognitive biases that make human behavior suboptimal. In this work, we analyze one family of approaches that strive to get the best of both worlds: use the end-to-end predictor on common cases, but do not rely on it for tail events / out-of-distribution inputs -- switch to the planning-based predictor there. We contribute an analysis of different approaches for detecting when to make this switch, using an autonomous driving domain. We find that promising approaches based on ensembling or generative modeling of the training distribution might not be reliable, but that there very simple methods which can perform surprisingly well -- including training a classifier to pick up on tell-tale issues in predicted trajectories.
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