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Register a new userEfficient Algorithms for Estimating the Parameters of Mixed Linear Regression Models
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Mixed linear regression (MLR) model is among the most exemplary statistical tools for modeling non-linear distributions using a mixture of linear models. When the additive noise in MLR model is Gaussian, Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely-used algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of MLR parameters. However, when noise is non-Gaussian, the steps of EM algorithm may not have closed-form update rules, which makes EM algorithm impractical. In this work, we study the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of MLR model when the additive noise has non-Gaussian distribution. In particular, we consider the case that noise has Laplacian distribution and we first show that unlike the the Gaussian case, the resulting sub-problems of EM algorithm in this case does not have closed-form update rule, thus preventing us from using EM in this case. To overcome this issue, we propose a new algorithm based on combining the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with EM algorithm idea. Our numerical experiments show that our method outperforms the EM algorithm in statistical accuracy and computational time in non-Gaussian noise case.
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Multi-modal distributions are commonly used to model clustered data in statistical learning tasks. In this paper, we consider the Mixed Linear Regression (MLR) problem. We propose an optimal transport-based framework for MLR problems, Wasserstein Mixed Linear Regression (WMLR), which minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the learned and target mixture regression models. Through a model-based duality analysis, WMLR reduces the underlying MLR task to a nonconvex-concave minimax optimization problem, which can be provably solved to find a minimax stationary point by the Gradient Descent Ascent (GDA) algorithm. In the special case of mixtures of two linear regression models, we show that WMLR enjoys global convergence and generalization guarantees. We prove that WMLRs sample complexity grows linearly with the dimension of data. Finally, we discuss the application of WMLR to the federated learning task where the training samples are collected by multiple agents in a network. Unlike the Expectation Maximization algorithm, WMLR directly extends to the distributed, federated learning setting. We support our theoretical results through several numerical experiments, which highlight our frameworks ability to handle the federated learning setting with mixture models.
The functional linear model is a popular tool to investigate the relationship between a scalar/functional response variable and a scalar/functional covariate. We generalize this model to a functional linear mixed-effects model when repeated measurements are available on multiple subjects. Each subject has an individual intercept and slope function, while shares common population intercept and slope function. This model is flexible in the sense of allowing the slope random effects to change with the time. We propose a penalized spline smoothing method to estimate the population and random slope functions. A REML-based EM algorithm is developed to estimate the variance parameters for the random effects and the data noise. Simulation studies show that our estimation method provides an accurate estimate for the functional linear mixed-effects model with the finite samples. The functional linear mixed-effects model is demonstrated by investigating the effect of the 24-hour nitrogen dioxide on the daily maximum ozone concentrations and also studying the effect of the daily temperature on the annual precipitation.
We study the problem of adaptive control of a high dimensional linear quadratic (LQ) system. Previous work established the asymptotic convergence to an optimal controller for various adaptive control schemes. More recently, for the average cost LQ problem, a regret bound of ${O}(sqrt{T})$ was shown, apart form logarithmic factors. However, this bound scales exponentially with $p$, the dimension of the state space. In this work we consider the case where the matrices describing the dynamic of the LQ system are sparse and their dimensions are large. We present an adaptive control scheme that achieves a regret bound of ${O}(p sqrt{T})$, apart from logarithmic factors. In particular, our algorithm has an average cost of $(1+eps)$ times the optimum cost after $T = polylog(p) O(1/eps^2)$. This is in comparison to previous work on the dense dynamics where the algorithm requires time that scales exponentially with dimension in order to achieve regret of $eps$ times the optimal cost. We believe that our result has prominent applications in the emerging area of computational advertising, in particular targeted online advertising and advertising in social networks.
The neural linear model is a simple adaptive Bayesian linear regression method that has recently been used in a number of problems ranging from Bayesian optimization to reinforcement learning. Despite its apparent successes in these settings, to the best of our knowledge there has been no systematic exploration of its capabilities on simple regression tasks. In this work we characterize these on the UCI datasets, a popular benchmark for Bayesian regression models, as well as on the recently introduced UCI gap datasets, which are better tests of out-of-distribution uncertainty. We demonstrate that the neural linear model is a simple method that shows generally good performance on these tasks, but at the cost of requiring good hyperparameter tuning.
Regression analysis is a standard supervised machine learning method used to model an outcome variable in terms of a set of predictor variables. In most real-world applications we do not know the true value of the outcome variable being predicted outside the training data, i.e., the ground truth is unknown. It is hence not straightforward to directly observe when the estimate from a model potentially is wrong, due to phenomena such as overfitting and concept drift. In this paper we present an efficient framework for estimating the generalization error of regression functions, applicable to any family of regression functions when the ground truth is unknown. We present a theoretical derivation of the framework and empirically evaluate its strengths and limitations. We find that it performs robustly and is useful for detecting concept drift in datasets in several real-world domains.
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