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Register a new userUnprecedented decarbonization of Chinas power system in the post-COVID era
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In October of 2020, China announced that it aims to start reducing its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 20601. The surprise announcement came in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic which caused a transient drop in Chinas emissions in the first half of 2020. Here, we show an unprecedented de-carbonization of Chinas power system in late 2020: although Chinas power related carbon emissions were 0.5% higher in 2020 than 2019, the majority (92.9%) of the increased power demand was met by increases in low-carbon (renewables and nuclear) generation (increased by 9.3%), as compared to only 0.4% increase for fossil fuels. Chinas low-carbon generation in the country grew in the second half of 2020, supplying a record high of 36.7% (increased by 1.9% compared to 2019) of total electricity in 2020, when the fossil production dropped to a historical low of 63.3%. Combined, the carbon intensity of Chinas power sector decreased to an historical low of 519.9 tCO2/GWh in 2020. If the fast decarbonization and slowed down power demand growth from 2019 to 2020 were to continue, by 2030, over half (50.8%) of Chinas power demand could be provided by low carbon sources. Our results thus reveal that China made progress towards its carbon neutrality target during the pandemic, and suggest the potential for substantial further decarbonization in the next few years if the latest trends persist.
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In the first half of 2020, several countries have responded to the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic by restricting their export of medical supplies. Such measures are meant to increase the domestic availability of critical goods, and are commonly used in times of crisis. Yet, not much is known about their impact, especially on countries imposing them. Here we show that export bans are, by and large, counterproductive. Using a model of shock diffusion through the network of international trade, we simulate the impact of restrictions under different scenarios. We observe that while they would be beneficial to a country implementing them in isolation, their generalized use makes most countries worse off relative to a no-ban scenario. As a corollary, we estimate that prices increase in many countries imposing the restrictions. We also find that the cost of restraining from export bans is small, even when others continue to implement them. Finally, we document a change in countries position within the international trade network, suggesting that export bans have geopolitical implications.
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