No Arabic abstract
We propose a novel method, termed SuMo-net, that uses partially monotonic neural networks to learn a time-to-event distribution from a sample of covariates and right-censored times. SuMo-net models the survival function and the density jointly, and optimizes the likelihood for right-censored data instead of the often used partial likelihood. The method does not make assumptions about the true survival distribution and avoids computationally expensive integration of the hazard function. We evaluate the performance of the method on a range of datasets and find competitive performance across different metrics and improved computational time of making new predictions.
Due to the dynamic nature, chaotic time series are difficult predict. In conventional signal processing approaches signals are treated either in time or in space domain only. Spatio-temporal analysis of signal provides more advantages over conventional uni-dimensional approaches by harnessing the information from both the temporal and spatial domains. Herein, we propose an spatio-temporal extension of RBF neural networks for the prediction of chaotic time series. The proposed algorithm utilizes the concept of time-space orthogonality and separately deals with the temporal dynamics and spatial non-linearity(complexity) of the chaotic series. The proposed RBF architecture is explored for the prediction of Mackey-Glass time series and results are compared with the standard RBF. The spatio-temporal RBF is shown to out perform the standard RBFNN by achieving significantly reduced estimation error.
Continuous-time event data are common in applications such as individual behavior data, financial transactions, and medical health records. Modeling such data can be very challenging, in particular for applications with many different types of events, since it requires a model to predict the event types as well as the time of occurrence. Recurrent neural networks that parameterize time-varying intensity functions are the current state-of-the-art for predictive modeling with such data. These models typically assume that all event sequences come from the same data distribution. However, in many applications event sequences are generated by different sources, or users, and their characteristics can be very different. In this paper, we extend the broad class of neural marked point process models to mixtures of latent embeddings, where each mixture component models the characteristic traits of a given user. Our approach relies on augmenting these models with a latent variable that encodes user characteristics, represented by a mixture model over user behavior that is trained via amortized variational inference. We evaluate our methods on four large real-world datasets and demonstrate systematic improvements from our approach over existing work for a variety of predictive metrics such as log-likelihood, next event ranking, and source-of-sequence identification.
Neural networks have excelled at regression and classification problems when the input space consists of scalar variables. As a result of this proficiency, several popular packages have been developed that allow users to easily fit these kinds of models. However, the methodology has excluded the use of functional covariates and to date, there exists no software that allows users to build deep learning models with this generalized input space. To the best of our knowledge, the functional neural network (FuncNN) library is the first such package in any programming language; the library has been developed for R and is built on top of the keras architecture. Throughout this paper, several functions are introduced that provide users an avenue to easily build models, generate predictions, and run cross-validations. A summary of the underlying methodology is also presented. The ultimate contribution is a package that provides a set of general modelling and diagnostic tools for data problems in which there exist both functional and scalar covariates.
Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) are popular machine learning algorithms with implementations such as LightGBM and in popular machine learning toolkits like Scikit-Learn. Many implementations can only produce trees in an offline manner and in a greedy manner. We explore ways to convert existing GBDT implementations to known neural network architectures with minimal performance loss in order to allow decision splits to be updated in an online manner and provide extensions to allow splits points to be altered as a neural architecture search problem. We provide learning bounds for our neural network.
Real-world networks such as social and communication networks are too large to be observed entirely. Such networks are often partially observed such that network size, network topology, and nodes of the original network are unknown. In this paper we formalize the Adaptive Graph Exploring problem. We assume that we are given an incomplete snapshot of a large network and additional nodes can be discovered by querying nodes in the currently observed network. The goal of this problem is to maximize the number of observed nodes within a given query budget. Querying which set of nodes maximizes the size of the observed network? We formulate this problem as an exploration-exploitation problem and propose a novel nonparametric multi-arm bandit (MAB) algorithm for identifying which nodes to be queried. Our contributions include: (1) $i$KNN-UCB, a novel nonparametric MAB algorithm, applies $k$-nearest neighbor UCB to the setting when the arms are presented in a vector space, (2) provide theoretical guarantee that $i$KNN-UCB algorithm has sublinear regret, and (3) applying $i$KNN-UCB algorithm on synthetic networks and real-world networks from different domains, we show that our method discovers up to 40% more nodes compared to existing baselines.